The Red Sox are a very good team that could finish fourth in their stacked division or win the World Series. Neither outcome would shock me. The Marlins are roughly in the same category.
It speaks to the volatility of those two franchises in particular — no surprise that they are managed by the combustible Bobby Valentine and Ozzie Guillen, respectively. However, it also speaks to a general unpredictability that is part of the majors in 2012.
What is fueling the lack of certainty? The NL has an absence of superior teams, in part because the Phillies are crumbling due to age/injury while Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder migrated to the other league.
That migration has helped the Angels and Tigers become two of the six super teams in the AL along with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Rangers.
And the Blue Jays are knocking on the door to join the elite. Yes, there is going to be a second wild card in each league for the first time, but even that new math does not allow six — or seven — to fit into five postseason berths in the AL. Therefore, a very good team or two will be on the outside looking in come the playoffs. Thus, you can finish fourth in the AL East and still be among the handful of best teams in the sport.
And we haven’t even discussed the havoc that the extra wild card will have on the July trade deadline. This will be a lab test to see if more teams think they could nab that extra wild-card spot and whether that freezes the market or ignites it with action.
So in this unpredictable year, predictions are more perilous than ever.
But tradition says I have to do this, so here goes:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays — Bautista and Brett Lawrie (who will finish in the MVP Top 10) spur Toronto to the majors’ most runs and serious wild-card contention. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ian Kinsler round out the Top 5.
CY YOUNG: Jered Weaver, Angels — Over the past three years, his innings pitched have gone up (176.2, 211, 224.1, 235.2) while his ERA has gone down (4.33, 3.75, 3.01, 2.41).
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Matt Moore, Rays — Wins a strong competition over Seattle’s Jesus Montero, Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes and Texas’ Yu Darvish.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF
(Yankees Edition) …
* Eduardo Nunez plays as much left field as he does shortstop or third base. He can steal a base like Brett Gardner, but offers potential punch that Gardner does not.
* Raul Ibanez bombs as the DH. The Yankees consider reuniting with still-without-a-job Johnny Damon or trading for Colorado’s Jason Giambi before deciding to move Brandon Laird and D.J. Mitchell to Oakland for Seth Smith.
* Ivan Nova pitches his way to the minors and Michael Pineda wins fewer games for the Yankees than Hector Noesi, a secondary piece in the trade for Pineda, does for Seattle. Andy Pettitte helps with 15 strong starts before landing on the DL with leg issues.
* David Robertson is worse than he was in 2011, Rafael Soriano is better and Soriano climbs back into the eighth-inning role.
* Alex Rodriguez plays 130 games at third, hitting .275 with 25 homers and
104 RBIs.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF
(AL Edition) …
* Yu Darvish has trouble with fastball command and is outpitched by the man he is ostensibly replacing in Texas’ rotation, new Angel C.J. Wilson.
* Toronto’s Sergio Santos leads the AL in saves.
* With offense again down, Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Choo becomes the hottest commodity on the July trade market with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants and Braves interested, but the Rays land him in a deal built around Jeremy Hellickson.
* Adam Jones, like Choo a free agent after the 2013 season, spurns the Orioles’ long-term overtures and is traded to the Braves for a package headed by Randall Delgado.
* Changing leagues does not impact Pujols or Fielder, who both exceed 35 homers; but the rigors of changing positions to the more demanding third base leads to previous iron man Miguel Cabrera playing 135 games after having eight straight years of at least 157.
* Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer, Seattle’s Dustin Ackley, Oakland’s Jemile Weeks and the L.A. Angels’ Peter Bourjos validate themselves as stars.
* Vernon Wells cannot turn his career around and despite his hefty contract goes to the bench so that talented, young Mike Trout can become the Angels’ everyday left fielder.
NATIONAL LEAGUE:
MVP: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks — Maturing on and off the field, Upton becomes a 40-homer, 30-steal force to capture the award over the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki, Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton and Cincinnati’s Joey Votto.
CY YOUNG: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers — There’s temptation to pick Miami’s Josh Johnson or St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright, but since both are coming back from injury there is enough worry there to push me toward the Dodgers’ best lefty starter since a fellow named Koufax (apologies to Fernando-mania fans).
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Nolan Arenado, Rockies — The third-base prodigy isn’t even beginning the year in the majors, but the best NL rookies are starting in the minors with the Nationals’ Bryce Harper, Cubs’ Brett Jackson, Cardinals’ Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks’ Trevor Bauer and Padres’ Casey Kelly all potential impact call-ups at some point.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF
(Mets Edition) …
* Johan Santana needs two DL stints to survive just a 15-start season, but uses his savvy to go 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA when he does pitch.
* Jon Niese’s command and maturity catch up to his competitiveness and stuff, allowing him to become a 15-game winner with an ERA in the threes.
* Andres Torres tanks and the Mets turn to Matt den Dekker, who proves to be Devon White Lite: Long legs and a long swing leading to ace defense, bunches of strikeouts and some lefty pop.
* Ike Davis and Lucas Duda each top 30 homers, but Davis does it with Gold Glove contention defense while Duda is so troublesome in right the Mets are forced to consider whether he can play there long term. The same goes for Daniel Murphy as a definitely-can-hit, but-can’t-field second baseman.
* Frank Francisco’s knee issues and inability to deal with the running game leads to Terry Collins going with a hot-hand approach at closer and no Met recording more than 18 saves.
* Ruben Tejada is not Jose Reyes, but he proves himself an everyday major league shortstop by making all the plays defensively while maintaining a good on-base percentage in the .350 range.
* David Wright is helped by the shortened Citi Field fences and rebounds to a .285, 24-homer season, but nothing helps Jason Bay, who finishes with just 10 homers.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF
(NL Edition) …
* The Marlins and Nationals usurp Cardinals-Cubs and Giants-Dodgers as the fiercest rivalry in the league as the boastful, incendiary styles of managers Ozzie Guillen and Davey Johnson incite a heated wild-card battle between the teams.
* Madison Bumgarner outperforms his more heralded Giants rotation mates Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.
* The Pirates extend their North American team record for consecutive losing seasons to 20 as they continue to get little from top-four overall picks such as Dan Moskos, Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez and Brad Lincoln.
* John Mayberry Jr. becomes a 30-homer All-Star helping the Phillies compensate somewhat for the early-season absences of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.
* Freddie Freeman also becomes a 30-homer force, but cannot compensate for all the other shortcomings in the Braves’ offense, notably Jason Heyward’s inability to fulfill his promise and Chipper Jones’ failure to have a strong final season.
* Jose Reyes can’t avoid the hamstring injuries that plagued him as a Met as he is limited to 125 games, but still steals 50 bases as a Marlin.
* Carlos Beltran stays relatively healthy and, while he is not Albert Pujols, he helps the Cardinals win the NL Central by hitting 25 homers with a .900 OPS.
* Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon becomes the first 80-steal man in the majors since 1988 when both Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson reached that plateau.
joel.sherman@nypost.com