Staying healthy will get the Mets only so far this year. For each of the last several seasons, the Mets believed they could contend for the postseason simply by keeping their best players on the field and receiving decent production from that group.
But 2012 is different. The Nationals and Marlins have improved in the NL East, while the Phillies and Braves remain strong as playoff contenders.
The Mets have taken a step backward in the short term.
The “evolutionary process” — code for rebuilding — that general manager Sandy Alderson speaks of began last summer when Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran were traded. Then came the decision not to approach the $106 million offer the Marlins made to free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes.
The Mets will begin the season with the payroll trimmed from $140 million to $90 million and looking for production from young, largely unproven players.
Success for the Mets in 2012 will mean staying competitive into the summer months and hoping players such as Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis and Jon Niese continue to develop, with pitching prospects Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia perhaps added to the mix.
David Wright will try to prove he’s worthy of a big contract extension and Johan Santana hopes to show he’s still got bullets remaining. Jason Bay is trying to revive a career that seems over. Maybe the closer left-field fence at Citi Field will help.
If the Mets can stay healthy and everything breaks right, they could be a fun team to watch. Just don’t expect playoff baseball in Flushing.
METS ESSENTIALS
MOST IMPORTANT EVERYDAY PLAYER: David Wright is left to carry the baton alone after Jose Reyes’ defection. The Mets need Wright to play 150 games.
MOST IMPORTANT PITCHER: If Johan Santana’s shoulder is sound, the Mets perhaps can make a run at .500. If Santana barely pitches, these will be the Joe Torre Mets of the late 1970s.
WILL HAVE A BIGGER YEAR THAN EXPECTED: Bobby Parnell was a bust in his audition for the closer’s role last year, but is a different pitcher after having developed a curveball and received guidance from Sandy Koufax this spring.
MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Ruben Tejada had two good months at the plate to conclude last season, but there are still legitimate questions as to whether he can hit enough to be a major leaguer.
KEY CALL UP: Don’t be surprised if Matt Harvey is pitching for the Mets by July. Harvey was impressive in camp and showed team brass he has the makeup. Now it’s just a matter of receiving additional seasoning in the minors.
BIGGEST MANAGERIAL DECISION: How is Terry Collins going to handle Jason Bay if the left fielder is a bust again this season? This could be the year Bay is reduced to a part time player if he doesn’t produce at the plate. Bay hasn’t shown much in spring training.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF: Lucas Duda hits 35 home runs this season and the Mets swear allegiance to “Dudaism” — a Northeast religion with a central belief in the long ball.
SURE TO MAKE FANS GRUMBLE: Mike Pelfrey will be a hot button topic as long as he remains in the rotation.
WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IF: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Reyes, Stephen Strasburg, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel spend the entire year on the disabled list and Jupiter aligns with Mars, Venus and Neptune.
WILL MISS PLAYOFFS IF: They don’t overachieve in every facet of the game for six months.
INJURY THAT WOULD HURT THE MOST: No Santana, no shot at sanity.
PLAYING THE FIELD
FIRST BASE: Ike Davis’ ankle is healthy and Valley Fever hasn’t been an issue, so maybe he can hit 25-30 homers and become something special.
SECOND BASE: Daniel Murphy will make plenty of errors, but if he hits .320 with some pop, the Mets will live with it.
SHORTSTOP: Ruben Tejada will be just fine defensively, but he isn’t Reyes at the plate or on the bases.
THIRD BASE: David Wright doesn’t have a contract extension, so a big year would certainly bolster his case for staying long term.
LEFT FIELD: Jason Bay has been invisible this spring, after two awful seasons with the Mets. This is about to get real ugly.
CENTER FIELD: Andres Torres is highly regarded defensively, but can he hit enough to warrant a spot in the everyday lineup?
RIGHT FIELD: Lucas Duda was among the brightest spots in spring training for the Mets and could be on his way to stardom. He hits them high and far.
CATCHER: Josh Thole needs to pick up the pace offensively and defensively after a disappointing 2011. Mike Nickeas is a strong defensive catcher who barely hits.
BENCH: Scott Hairston, Ronny Cedeno and Justin Turner are solid backup options, but there really isn’t really a late-inning threat sitting on the bench.
STARTING ROTATION: Johan Santana’s spring has been terrific, but you wonder if he will hit a wall midway through the season, if not before, after missing all of last season recovering from shoulder surgery. Jon Niese could be on the rise and R.A. Dickey remains a reliable veteran option. Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee are question marks at the back of the rotation.
BULLPEN: Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Ramon Ramirez all struggled this spring, but are expected to bolster a bullpen that was in shambles last year. Parnell appears strong and Manny Acosta is a solid option.