When the weather in April more resembles that of a lovely day in May, is it time to follow that old adage, “Sell in May and go away,” a month early?
That appears to be the case on Wall Street, as the best start for stocks since 1998 — the Dow Jones industrial average was up 8 percent in the first quarter — has turned into a springtime swoon.
Not only was this the worst week for stocks in 2012, volume has been the lightest in more than four years.
Call it Apathetic April everywhere from Main Street to Wall Street, as more and more Americans simply seem to be zoning out. Take TV viewership.
On the broadcast networks, early April ratings fell to season lows; compared with a decade ago, some ratings were down as much as 90 percent.
Meanwhile, the turnout among likely voters at this year’s Republican primaries is down 3 percent from the levels seen in 2008.
On Wall Street, the dispassion is palpable. Despite a fabulous first quarter, individual investors nevertheless continue to pull money out of equities — $20 billion worth so far this year.
Attendance at corporate annual meetings is reported to be soft, and a Putin-like ploy by Google to declare a stock split to disguise a management power grab hasn’t helped instill investor confidence or enthusiasm.
Of course, it’s little wonder we’re becoming more uninterested. Specious arguments over trumped-up gimmicks like the Buffett Rule or debates over the work ethic of stay-at-home mothers of five will do that.
So, too, will an economy that after four years still can’t find its footing.
As the folks at Zero Hedge put it, three years of near-zero percent Fed rates and a tripling of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet hasn’t changed the fact that this goes down as the weakest recovery ever.
In fact, we haven’t ever gone this long without seeing a single quarterly gross domestic product growth of 4 percent or better.
That’s the kind of growth that jump-starts employment and even begins to juice tax revenue
Little wonder Americans are turning inward and tuning out.
But as this week’s tremors out of Spain and Italy remind us, investors who zone out what’s happening in the rest of the world are doing so at their own peril.
Already, weakness from Europe is hurting the profits of US multinationals, from McDonald’s to Merck.
Yes, spring fever is raging. Enjoy it. It looks like a long, hot summer lies ahead.