What the Freak?
For four years, the diminutive Tim Lincecum was a Giant in every sense, capturing Cy Young hardware in 2008 and ’09, piloting San Francisco to the 2010 title and piling up fantasy points last season despite a 13-14 record blamed on poor run support.
But this season Lincecum, who turns 28 on Friday, has been shrinking before owners’ eyes, and the only thing giant about his pitching line is a 5.83 ERA, which ranked 110th out of 115 qualifiers going into the weekend.
Most critics have pointed to the drop in his average fastball velocity from 92.3 mph last season to 90.3, a problem compounded by his formerly unhittable out-pitch, his changeup, losing deception by staying at 83 mph and getting hammered like never before.
But that is the kind of glitch a cerebral pitcher such as Lincecum can correct. He’s still striking out more than a batter per inning, and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which removes the flukes of luck and defense and computes on an ERA scale) is a not-nearly-so-worrisome 3.66. So don’t Freaking overreact to a couple of bad months: Hold onto Lincecum or see if he can be obtained at a cut rate.
The despair of aces is not confined to the Bay Area. This week we judge whether to buy or sell several other struggling front-line hurlers:
Jon Lester, Red Sox
Get this man a drumstick. After a fourth straight 15-win, sub-3.50 ERA effort during Boston’s infamous collapse a year ago, Lester (3-4, 4.64) has just six of 12 quality starts and a high of seven strikeouts this season. More than bad luck, it stems from an increased tendency to pitch to contact — strikeouts and walks are down, hits are up. That’s not the lefty fantasy players know and love. SELL.
Josh Johnson, Marlins
The knock on the big right-hander has long been his inability to stay healthy, never that he gets knocked around for upwards of 10 hits per nine innings. But that’s the product of an unfortunate .373 opponents average on balls in play (an extra-fishy .402 at spacious new Marlins Park), which will sink over time. As long as Johnson (3-4, 4.56) stays off the DL, he’s primed for a turnaround. BUY.
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
There was some hesitancy to draft Wainwright (5-6, 4.97) coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery, and that doubt was validated by a 5.77 ERA through mid-May. But the stuff is still there and the rust is flaking off after much of the early trouble came from a home-run spike. Now he’s 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA, 25 strikeouts and just one homer in 27 innings over his past four starts. BUY.
Mat Latos, Reds
The first rule of real estate is among the guidelines for fantasy pitchers: location, location, location. Latos (4-2, 4.91) is a fastball-slider strikeout pitcher who gives up buckets of fly balls; that flied when he worked out of San Diego’s Petco Park, allowing 0.8 homers per nine innings from 2009-11, but it’s killing him in Cincinnati. He already has allowed 10 dingers in six starts at Great American Ball Park. SELL.