Opinion

Between ‘Evil twins’

Cairo

Mubarak or the Revolution — which one will die first? That was the question Egyptians pondered yesterday as the old despot was reported to be dying (some even said had already died) in Cairo’s Maadi Hospital.

While small crowds, mere ghosts of the gatherings of last year, haunted Tahrir (Freedom) Square, still smaller ones surrounded Maadi to see how the fallen Ra’is (president) was faring.

Both crowds reflected Egypt’s deep divisions.

Some Tahrir demonstrators, the famous Facebook crowd, were still shouting last year’s slogans about democracy and people power. Others — men with bushy beards for men and women in thick hijab — were demanding that Muhammad Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s presidential candidate, be declared the winner of last weekend’s balloting. A third faction consisted of those who insist that Ahmad Shafiq, a former general and candidate of the old regime, won the election.

Around Maadi, a group led by Muslim Brotherhood militants was shouting “Death to Mubarak!” — while a rival contingent was praying to Allah to prolong his life.

The first round of the presidential election attracted just over 40 percent of eligible voters. In the second round, that fell to around 38 percent. Unofficial results suggest that, whoever wins, it will be with no more than 51 to 52 percent of the votes. Thus, Egypt’s first freely elected president will have a very narrow support base.

Worse still, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the country’s de facto ruler, has reduced the presidency to a largely ceremonial function.

All that for this? disappointed Egyptians ask.

Elsewhere, some experts are describing the Arab Spring as a mirage. They criticize those, like me, who believe that it was and remains a reality that has changed the Middle East’s political landscape for the better.

By the time you read this, Mubarak may well have been pronounced dead. But Mubarakism is likely to live on for some time, in the coalition of military, business and bureaucratic interests that have ruled Egypt for 60 years.

And the Muslim Brotherhood has helped keep Mubarakism alive.

The Brotherhood’s increasingly voracious appetite for power and its shock tactics to impose “Islamic appearance” in poor neighborhoods of some big cities, have frightened the Egyptian middle classes. The Coptic minority has been terrorized by Islamist attacks on churches and Christian graveyards. Segments of the working class, especially in cities along the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, feel that they might not be safe under an Islamist regime that would try to regulate their personal lives.

But Egypt’s democrats, the original Tahrir crowd, have failed to offer either a program or a credible leadership — leaving those wary of Islamist rule with a dire choice: Abstain, or try to keep the Mubarak regime alive as long as possible.

In a sense, that regime and the Muslim Brotherhood are Siamese twins. Delve into the identity of the Brotherhood leadership, and you find it’s made of the same substance as the Mubarakist elite.

Like their Mubarakist counterparts, Brotherhood leaders have lower-middle-class backgrounds. Thanks to state subsidies, many have obtained higher education. Some send their children to be educated in Britain, the United States or Canada. Several Brotherhood big shots have been living in London, Paris and Rome for decades. Brotherhood networks are active in many parts of the United States, including Washington, DC.

And almost all Brotherhood grandees are engaged in business activities. Some have business interests in Europe, the Middle East and the United States. Some businesses have both retired generals and Brotherhood leaders among their owners.

In Egypt, as in other parts of the Arab World, separating business from politics may be as important as the separation of mosque and state.

So, has the Arab Spring been worth the candle? My answer remains: yes.

In Egypt, it has allowed the holding of two relatively clean elections, for the first time since 1952. That balloting revealed that even together the Siamese twin of the Mubarakist elite and Muslim Brotherhood can’t attract a majority of Egyptians.

The silent majority may have been looking to Tahrir to provide a third way and, getting no such offer, may have decided to wait and watch. By doing so, it has demonstrated its size and power. No future government can ignore that reality.

The despotic-Islamist twins still enjoys immense tactical advantages. But with the Arab Spring, most Egyptians have shed their fears of both.

Never before have I seen Egyptians talking so freely of politics in public, lambasting the “evil twins.”

That, in itself, is no mean achievement.