Over the first 138 years of the Kentucky Derby, a trainer’s goal was to have his horse peak on exactly the first Saturday in May. Not any more, now that Churchill Downs’ new point system to determine Derby eligibility has turned the traditional prep races into “win-and-you’re-in” events.
Now, a horse must be at his peak for at least one prep race just to make it to the Derby.
Since a victory in 10 different 2-year-old stakes and nine early 3-year-old preps is worth a measly 10 points each, most Derby hopefuls have just two chances to earn enough points to make the field, which is limited to 20 starters with a projected cutoff of 40 points:
1) They can earn 50 points by winning one of eight stakes run between Feb. 23 and March 24.
2) They can finish first (100 points) or second (40 points) in one of seven stakes run between March 30 and April 13.
It is worth noting that each of the last six Derby winners raced just twice at 3 before the Derby, and that no points are given for any stakes at seven furlongs — the distance at which such Derby winners and beaten favorites as Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, Genuine Risk, Swale, Spend a Buck, Chief’s Crown, Easy Goer, Strike the Gold, Holy Bull, Silver Charm and Monarchos all made their 3-year-old debuts.
The point here is, if a top Derby hopeful stubs his toe in just one of his two shots at the necessary points, there is every chance he will spend this May 4 in his stall, watching the Run for the Roses on TV.
Take Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion, who finished 1-2, separated by a nose, in last year’s Remsen (earning 10 and 4 points, respectively).
Both of these colts began the year among the top 20 on virtually every Derby poll.
But after just one start, both are in trouble. Going off as the favorites in their first races since the Nov. 24 Remsen, Normandy Invasion, off slowly and wide all the way, was fifth in the Feb. 23 Risen Star, while Overanalyze was fifth in the Gotham on Saturday and most likely needed the race.
Now, they will have to run first or second in their final prep — either the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass — to punch their tickets to Louisville.
A fast-closing third, beaten two noses, won’t do the trick.
The current point leaders are Risen Star winner Ive Struck a Nerve (51 points), Fountain of Youth winner Orb (50) and Gotham winner Vyjack (50). None of them was on anyone’s radar screen when the year began, but all had the advantage of several recent races over the track.