LOUISVILLE — As Giacomo and Mine That Bird proved when they came from the clouds to win the Kentucky Derby at 50-1, just because the media ignores you during Derby week, it doesn’t mean you can’t win the race.
One of this year’s Rodney Dangerfield horses is Black Onyx, ridden by “Jersey Joe” Bravo and trained by Kelly Breen. Despite his come-from-behind win by 1 1/2 lengths in the March 23 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park — a prep that propelled Animal Kingdom to victory in the 2011 Derby — Black Onyx was dismissed at 50-1 by Churchill Downs linemaker Mike Battaglia.
“Animal Kingdom set the precedent,” Breen said Thursday. “I thought he’d ruin our odds, but apparently he didn’t, because they still don’t give us respect.”
A nearly pure-black son of Rock Hard Ten, Black Onyx is a striking-looking animal who “is getting better as time progresses,” Breen said. “He’s looking better, eating well, all the things you want.”
Breen won’t lie awake nights because he drew the dreaded post 1. Since Black Onyx won’t be running close to the pace, “It doesn’t affect us nearly as much,” he said, also noting that “with all the excitement that’s been going on [in the mornings at Churchill], he’s so cool, calm and collected. You could have a high-anxiety horse that’ll be in that one post for a long time, but he’s as laid back as I’ve seen a Derby horse.”
* For those who still subscribe to the Dosage “dual-qualifier” system that was so effective in picking Derby winners through the 1980’s and ’90’s — to be a dual-qualifier, a horse must 1) have been the highweight or ranked within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Handicap ranking the previous season’s top 2-year-olds; and 2) have a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower — there are only four of them in this year’s Derby: Frac Daddy (50-1), Goldencents (5-1), Normandy Invasion (12-1) and Overanalyzed (15-1).
A four-horse dual-qualifier box on Saturday could pay big balloons in the exacta, trifecta and superfecta.
Dr. Steve Roman, the inventor of the Dosage System, sent us this e-mail from his home in Costa Rica:
“My Derby preview is on the site [chef-de-race.com] now. I’m leaning toward Normandy Invasion, Verrazano and Goldencents. I also liked Java’s War and Vyjack, but the post positions are a serious issue for both.
“This is an evenly matched field, and a case could be made for at least half of them. I am concerned that the pace may not be traditionally hot because the point system seemed to exclude some of the real speed burners that normally got in in previous years. Without a really fast pace, I’m afraid the race could degenerate into a strategic affair where the genetic aptitude for a classic distance becomes secondary. Some of the final prep races were strategic and, as a result, very slow. I much prefer a fast-paced Derby where speed and stamina prevail.”