The games become bigger now, the stakes higher. January Madness in the NFL brings us a compelling weekend played by the Elite Eight still chasing the Super Bowl XLVIII dream, now only 27 days away at MetLife Stadium.
Story lines abound: Two of the head coaches (Bill Belichick and Sean Payton) have won Super Bowls. Two of the head coaches (John Fox and Jim Harbaugh) have lost Super Bowls. Three of the quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning) have won Super Bowls. Two quarterbacks (Manning and Colin Kaepernick) have lost a Super Bowl, and one quarterback (Brady) has lost two. One quarterback (Cam Newton) has never played in the postseason. One head coach (Ron Rivera) has never coached in the postseason.
A look at the Elite Eight:
Colts at Patriots
So now Andrew Luck learns what the young Peyton Manning learned the hard way: You can wow the professional football world one week, maybe engineer an epic comeback victory, and more often than not, Belichick will be waiting for you, standing there stone-faced in his gray hoodie between you and the Lombardi Trophy.
The quickest way for Luck to float down from Cloud 9 is a peek at history, namely the first time Manning faced Belichick in the playoffs — the 2003 AFC Championship game in 31-degree temperatures in Foxboro.
It ended Patriots 24, Colts 14, and it ended with Manning (23-for-47, 237 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs) throwing three picks to Ty Law.
“I just made some bad throws, some bad decisions,” Manning said that day. “I thought the Patriots played extremely well and we didn’t.”
Luck’s introduction to Belichickitis was not unlike Manning’s early struggles against the diabolical genius: 27-for-50, 334 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs in a 59-24 humbling in Foxboro last season.
Luck better brace himself for another shootout, because if Alex Smith can throw for 378 yards and 4 TDs against the Colts secondary, what might Brady do?
This much is certain: Belichick won’t let T.Y. Hilton catch 13 passes for 224 yards and book a room in his end zone. So is this: If Luck falls behind 38-10 this time, he won’t be coming all the way back.
Chargers at Broncos
Peyton disciples might try to convince you Manning dodged a bullet when the Chargers upset the Bengals, because the last thing he would have wanted was having to answer questions all week about facing Luck, his successor in Indianapolis. And they might try to make the case that Manning will know the Chargers defense better than the Chargers defense knows itself, facing that unit for a third time this season.
Except the Chargers believe. Except Mike McCoy has a working knowledge of Manning from coaching him last season in Denver. And the pressure on Manning, especially in the wake of his cold-weather playoff lost last January at Mile High, will be insufferable.
The blueprint for the Cinderargers is the same one they used in their 27-20 upset in Denver last month — dominate time of possession (38:49) with Ryan Mathews (29 carries for 129 yards) and keep Manning antsy on the sidelines.
The same one the Super Bowl XXV Giants used against the explosive Jim Kelly Bills when they kept the ball for 40:33. It’s safe to say Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano will face a slightly bigger challenge against Manning than he did against Andy Dalton, though his blitzes bothered Manning. So the more help he gets from Philip Rivers, the better his chances. And don’t forget Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio won’t have Von Miller hounding Rivers.
“The longer you keep the ball and the less he has it, the better off you’re going to be,” Chargers coach Mike McCoy said after frustrating Manning in the Dec. 12 Thursday night shocker.
One caveat: Wes Welker (concussion) missed that game. He won’t be missing this one.
49ers at Panthers
Harbaugh and Kaepernick will play you in the parking lot if they had to. This is a brass-knuckle rematch of a 10-9 Panthers victory at Candlestick on Nov. 10 when both Kaepernick and Newton were suffocated. But the Panthers would have been better off playing the Packers.
Michael Crabtree has opened up the aerial space for Kaepernick, and he missed the first game. Linebacker Aldon Smith had just returned from a substance abuse treatment center and played just 11 snaps. Kaepernick, who has emerged as a big-game player and fearless leader and continues to validate Harbaugh’s controversial decision to jettison Alex Smith, was limited to 16 yards rushing by the Panthers and was sacked six times.
Niners tight end Vernon Davis, who could have burned the Carolina secondary — Santonio Holmes’ favorite weak link — was knocked out midway through the second quarter with a concussion, and the Niners went just 2 of 13 on third-down conversions.
Perhaps the Panthers will plaster this postgame Kaepernick quote on their bulletin board: “They’re a good defense. But today was more out lack of execution than what they were doing.”
Saints at Seahawks
Russell Wilson outdueled Brees, his idol, and CenturyLinc set a Guiness record for decibel level in a 34-7 Monday night whipping of the Saints on Dec. 2. It was complete domination from start to finish.
“We have to do a better job as coaches, starting with me,” Payton said.
Brees won’t be limited to 147 yards passing this time, because the ‘Hawks are not Eagles, and the Saints won’t be rushing for 185 yards against them.
Rob Ryan will look to take away Marshawn Lynch as much as he can, but all bets are off on whether Percy Harvin makes it back to make life more exciting for Wilson.
The Saints have been buoyed by shedding the Road Warrior monkey off their backs in Philly, but while the earplugs Payton supplied for them last time helped with the 12th Man, they didn’t help with the 11 men on the field.
“We made a great quarterback look normal,” Richard Sherman said.
The great quarterback will have to look great for the Saints to have a chance.