ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The correlation between superb pitching and success remains inarguable.
The top five teams in the majors in ERA were the five NL playoff teams. Five of the seven best AL ERAs made the playoffs – and the top eight all had winning records.
Yet even in this month when the mantra is pitching and defense wins, the offenses of the Dodgers and, particularly, the Red Sox are hard to ignore. If in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Then in an era when pitching is dominant, is the team with by far the best offense king?
“It sure makes life more difficult (to beat Boston),” Rays manager Joe Maddon said.
Boston scored 853 runs – 57 more than any other team. That feels like the biggest edge any team had in any phase in yet another season when offense feel across the board. The wrecking ball has continued to swing in October.
Tampa started two of the better lefties in the majors, Matt Moore and David Price, in the first two Division Series games, yet Boston mashed for 19 runs and a .990 OPS. It has felt like watching a sequel to the Yankees 6-13 2013 against Boston when the Red Sox inflicted a 6.19 ERA on New York pitching while hitting .315 with an .886 OPS.
The Red Sox rallied to tie Game 3 in the ninth against closer Fernando Rodney before Jose Lobaton homered with two out in the bottom of the ninth against previously impenetrable Red Sox closer Koji Uehara; the 5-4 triumph saving the Rays season and forcing a Game 4. Still, even in being limited to four runs in defeat, Boston still showcased its relentless trait, forcing Tampa to expend 169 pitches in nine innings.
The Red Sox lineup is short on soft spots, has patience and power, and offers excellent lefty-righty diversity. There is a Chinese Water Torture feel to it. In Game 1, for example, Moore did not allow a hit for three innings. Yet, Boston made Moore throw 51 pitches and suddenly he was crumbling in the fourth. If a pitcher cannot win over the plate, he will not subdue a disciplined team willing to take walks and pass it to the next guy, all aching to do damage in hitter’s counts.
This Boston offense plays like something dragged from the 2003-04 heyday of the Yankees-Red Sox battles. Though it is easy to forget just how, um, juiced that era was. For example, Boston led the majors with 961 runs 10 years ago and six teams scored the 853 the Red Sox managed this year.
Still, scoring 853 runs now resounds. Because runs per team (4.17) were the lowest in 21 years in 2013. Because so much high-end pitching, in rotations and pens, combined with more hit-robbing shifts led to the lowest batting average (.253) since 1972 — the year before the AL adopted the DH.
Not to go all Moneyball, but on-base percentage feels as precious – maybe more so – than ever. The .318 major league average hadn’t been so low since 1971. The Red Sox, though, resisted the sinking trend. They were at .349, reflecting an offseason in which they prioritized patient hitters. In fact, Boston perhaps provided a template for teams with money and offensive needs – both New York teams, for example.
The Red Sox appeared to want the on-base skill with at least one other useful trait. Thus, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew and Mike Napoli (at first base) also brought defense. Victorino speed. Jonny Gomes and Mike Carp righty-lefty matchup impact. Each brought a level of power. Of course, it helped that David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury got healthy, that Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia graduated to a better level.
Of Boston’s 12 most-used players just one – Will Middlebrooks – had an on-base percentage under .333. And aside from third base, Middlebrooks’ position, the Red Sox ranked in the top seven in the majors in every other spot. The Yankees, by comparison, were first at second base (Robinson Cano) and fifth in center field (thanks mainly to Brett Gardner), and then ranked 21st or worse at every other position. Their on-base percentage in each of those other position (except DH) was under .300.
“Boston has done a good job of identifying hitters, but more than that it’s about patient hitters who are opportunistic,” an NL executive said. “Their team this year reminds me a lot of the Yankees teams of the early 2000s that would work counts and get to pitchers early. They have done a good job of instilling a culture and integrating such type hitters into that culture.”
And the correlation to on-base percentage and success is stark: Eight of the 10 playoff teams were in the top nine in on-base percentage.
With such great defensive positioning, the value of buying a great defender should be tempered. With more power arms than any time in recent memory, pitching is a bit easier to locate. But offense is down, so it must be prioritized. The Red Sox did that last offseason, constructed a lineup far superior to others in the sport.
Will that make them king?