THAT Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would win re-election was never in doubt. But the scale of the victory arranged for him has surprised even some of his friends.
IRAN AMOK AFTER A’JAD’S ‘VICTORY’
Whoever scripted the results made sure that Ahmadinejad won more votes than anyone in the 103-year history of elections in Iran. With almost 63 percent of the votes, Ahmadinejad is credited with twice as many votes as his closest rival, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi. The turnout was also the highest ever — put at 85 percent. The president won in every social category and age group and in every one of Iran’s 30 provinces. It was even arranged that Ahmadinejad’s three rivals, all veterans of the Khomeinist revolution, were roundly defeated in their respective hometowns.
Not surprising, the scale of the victory has raised many eyebrows, even among the regime’s apologists.
Mousavi, the best known of the three defeated candidates, has called the election “a dangerous spectacle.” Mahdi Karroubi, the only mullah among the four candidates, has threatened unspecified action against “this charade.” The third defeated candidate, Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has described the results as “contrary to all reasonable expectations.”
The defeated candidates’ protestations are unlikely to carry much weight. All three are regime insiders, having occupied key positions within the system for decades. They agreed to enter an electoral process of which every aspect is fixed. To start with, only candidates approved by the Council of the Guardians, a 12-mullah “star chamber,” are allowed to run. In the absence of an independent electoral commission, the Ministry of the Interior and the security services control the process. There is no secret ballot, and no representatives of candidates are allowed to supervise the casting and counting of the votes. In theory, the authorities could declare any results they wish without having to worry about outside observers. And this time, at least, it seems that they have done precisely that.
Ahmadinejad may have wanted a big mandate to justify what many believe will be a massive purge of the top echelons of the ruling elite. During the presidential debates, broadcast live on national television, Ahmadinejad named a number of dignitaries, including two of his predecessors, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, as Mafia-like “godfathers” engaged in “plundering the nation.” He promised that, if re-elected, he would bring the “thieves” to justice and “restore the probity of our Islamic system.”
Ahmadinejad has vowed to devote his second four-year term to fighting on two fronts, against Israel and the United States abroad and “centers of corruption” at home.
A communiqué published by the official Islamic Republic News Agency described the president’s re-election as “the revival of the revolution” and a “victory for Hezbollah and the soldiers of Allah.”
Ahmadinejad defeated those who “mocked his anti-Israel campaign in support of the wronged Palestinian nation” and “those who regard a crippled creature named the United States as a superpower,” the communiqué claimed.
Recalling the president’s belief that we are living at “the end of times,” the communiqué said Iran would use its power to prepare for “the return of the Master of Time,” referring to the Hidden Imam of Shiite Islam, who disappeared 14 centuries ago.
Yesterday, the defeated candidates, with Khatami, gathered at Rafsanjani’s house to forge a common strategy against what they now see as a threat not only to their positions but also to their safety within the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad’s supporters marched in Tehran streets, calling on the re-elected president to “bring the thieves to justice.”
Ahmadinejad presents himself as the champion of a new generation of revolutionaries who believe that most of the older ones have betrayed Ayatollah Khomeini’s ideal by creating a new class of “parasitical rich sucking the blood of the poor masses.”
His re-election is also a victory for the military and security organs of the state that have tried to secure more power at the expense of the mullahs.
Under Ahmadinejad, the number of mullahs in key official positions has been cut by almost 70 percent. In every case, their places have been taken by members of the Revolutionary Guard or its allied security services. Friday was historic in that this was the first presidential election in which no mullah was featured as a major contender. The only mullah allowed to stand, Karroubi, was put at the bottom of the polls and credited with less than 1 percent of the votes.
Ahmadinejad’s re-election is bad news for President Obama’s key foreign-policy ambition of making a deal with the Islamic Republic. Ahmadinejad is convinced that the United States has embarked on a “historic retreat” and that, as a “sunset power,” it lacks the political courage to challenge a rejuvenated Islamic revolution in Iran.
The Khomeinist regime remains deeply unpopular, especially among young Iranians, who account for two-thirds of the population. Yesterday, Tehran and other major cities witnessed a series of anti-regime demonstrations, mostly with young people shouting, “Shame on you, Ahmadinejad! Quit the government!” Though small and isolated, these demonstrations could in time snowball into a mass movement against a divided regime that relies on social bribery and repression for its survival.
Unless the “Supreme Guide,” Ali Khamenei, succeeds in calming things down, the two camps, frowning at one another like a pair of angry cats for months, are certain to clash at some point. The clash could push Iran, already facing economic meltdown, ethnic revolts and mass labor unrest, closer to the edge.
Ahmadinejad may end up with what looks like a pyrrhic victory.