Opinion

DEEPENING DIVISIONS

BILLED as “unity prayers,” yesterday’s congregation at Tehran University’s campus instead highlighted the deep divisions that are tearing apart the Khomeinist ruling elite.

The gathering was supposed to reassert the authority of “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei and defuse the crisis triggered by the “re-election” of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And Khamenei did deploy his oratorical talents in a desperate appeal for calm — yet his total support for Ahmadinejad indicated the regime’s determination to rely on force rather than oratory to regain control.

Khamenei went further, asserting that Ahmadinejad’s views on “both domestic and foreign policies” are closer to his than those of the three defeated candidates. In other words, the election results stand — and the decision to recount votes in 646 polling stations, just over 1 percent of the total, is nothing but a tactical maneuver by the regime.

In a bid to persuade some key figures of the establishment to return to the fold, Khamenei assured former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and former Parliament Speaker Nateq Nuri that they won’t face prosecution on charges of corruption. (In last month’s presidential debates, Ahmadinejad had accused the two men of embezzlement and misuse of public funds. According to Tehran sources, both had written Khamenei asking him to “clear their name in public.”)

Yet some within the elite seem to be beyond even the hope of reconciliation.

To start with, all prominent figures of the “loyal opposition” boycotted the event at the last minute. Of the three defeated candidates, only retired Gen. Mohsen Rezai Mir-Qaed put in an appearance. Nearly half the members of the Islamic Majlis, Iran’s ersatz parliament, were absent — along with most members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of 92 mullahs who are supposed to supervise the work of the “Supreme Guide.” Some senior members of the military-security establishment were also absent, indicating that the split affects even the so-called “deep state.”

The regime had bused in thousands of supporters from the provinces to ensure a big turnout for Khamenei’s first appearance at a public prayer in nearly 20 years. He received enough cheers, and cries of “Allah Akbar” (Allah is the Greatest) to provide some good TV footage. But the cry at hundreds of rival prayer gatherings, held in dozens of mosques in Tehran and many more in the provinces, was “Death to the Dictator!”

Yesterday’s events showed that there are two Irans.

One Iran is still loyal to Khomeinism and prepared to give Khamenei the benefit of the doubt — hoping that the moribund Islamic revolution can be revived and resume its strategy of global conquest. Support for this Iran is shrinking as the nationwide protest movement strikes roots among the popular masses.

Then there is a second Iran — one that wishes to cease to be a cause and yearns to again be an ordinary nation enjoying a dignified place in the international community. This second Iran has not yet identified its own leaders. For now, it is prepared to bet on former Prime Minister Mir Hussein Mousavi, Ahmadinejad’s chief rival in last week’s election.

Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, the other defeated candidate, had agreed to lead a mass march to the university campus to highlight Khamenei’s increasing isolation — but later changed their minds, deciding not to force a confrontation that could have led to either the downfall of the regime or bloody repression by the security forces.

Instead, they have called for mass public prayers today throughout Iran with the promise of keeping on the pressure at least until the end of the 40-day period of mourning for the 19 protesters killed by the security forces in Tehran, Tabriz and Shiraz.

The showdown is set to continue. Ahmadinejad has all but disappeared from view, leaving Khamenei as field commander — something unprecedented in the 30-year history of the Khomeinist regime.

For the past three days, the regime has held its security forces on a tight leash, allowing the opposition to continue demonstrating throughout the country. Khamenei’s warning yesterday serves notice that a massive crackdown may be in preparation.

The first clashes may happen today, as the opposition returns to show its control of Tehran streets. The march is to run between the Revolution Square and Freedom Square to underline the opposition’s message that the anti-shah revolution of 30 years ago could lead to freedom today.

Amir Taheri’s new book is “The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution.”