PORT ST. LUCIE — I understand the optimism. It is March. It is 0-0 records all over the landscape, including Flushing. So the Mets are upbeat, full of faith.
They want to believe last season is no longer a disaster, but a motivator for players embarrassed by the recent past. If I hear the term “chip on their shoulder” one more time, I am going to assume that chip on the shoulder is just the latest bizarre injury to strike the HMO Mets.
Jason Bay, Daniel Murphy and the catching tandem of Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco are not Gold Glovers, but the Mets see them as distinct defensive upgrades over Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado and the catching tandem of Brian Schneider and Omir Santos.
Bay combined with the recuperation of Jose Reyes promises an offensive improvement even if Carlos Beltran ends up on the Mets’ too-familiar medical rehab program in which he will be due back in April, then May, then June . . .
The Mets have talent, so you don’t need the imagination of a “Lost” scriptwriter to envision scenarios for contention. But while the Mets try to stow last year in the forgettable history bin with signing Vince Coleman, trading Nolan Ryan and thinking Art Howe lights up a room, they cannot fully escape. Not when every scenario remains tied yet again to the effectiveness of Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine.
“They have to be good,” Jerry Manuel conceded. “We don’t have enough depth to overcome [a repeat of last year].”
As much as anything, the downfall of that trio undermined the 2009 Mets. So finding a reliable starter was on their offseason wish list. But they never even made offers on dependable innings-eater types such as Doug Davis and Jon Garland. They claimed it was not tight purse strings, but rather a baseball decision that they had better alternatives already with their Nos. 2-3-4 starters.
But this is not about talent with Pelfrey, Perez and Maine. They are talented. They also are untrustworthy. Yet the tenures of Omar Minaya and Manuel revolve around these three volatile starters. I guess it could be worse; Gov. Paterson could be their reference for their next job.
However, to hold on to these jobs, Minaya and Manuel probably have to make the playoffs, so they likely need no fewer than two of three from Pelfrey/Perez/Maine to have high-caliber seasons. Hey, you might make it across an alligator-infested swamp to get from one side to the other. That doesn’t mean it is a great idea. Having your employment in the hands of Pelfrey/Perez/Maine feels the same.
Think of it another way: Would you want your job invested in a player so unreliable that the mere act of getting into good shape and looking effective in bullpen sessions stirs euphoria, or what around Mets camp is called the Ollie Perez Experience?
It is quite a wobbly tightrope. The Mets are treating the Nos. 1 and 5 spots as sure things though the ace (Johan Santana) turns 31 next week and is coming off elbow surgery and the presumptive No. 5 (Jon Niese) is unproven and coming off hamstring surgery.
But even if we give the Mets the bread in the sandwich, the meat between the Nos. 1 and 5 starters remains dubious. The Mets keep saying to discard the 2009 car wreck and remember that Pelfrey/Perez/Maine each won in double-digits in 2008. But why should anyone believe 2008 reflects the actual abilities of this trio?
Perez has four seasons with an ERA of 5.40 or greater, the most of any active pitcher (minimum 10 starts in a season) currently slated to be in a rotation. The injury-prone Maine has topped 140 innings once. The pitcher in Mets’ history that Pelfrey is most similar to statistically is Jae Weong Seo.
Also, in 2008 the trio was way closer to league average than to All-Stars. But, hey, it is March, optimism time. So a more determined Perez has his mechanics more repeatable, a lighter Pelfrey is refining his changeup to provide diversity to his hard sinker, and Maine’s problematic shoulder is sound enough that he is enhancing his slider to try to limit so many foul balls off his heater.
Maybe it will all work. But would you want your job riding on it?
joel.sherman@nypost.com