Robinson Cano and David Wright have played the exact number of games. You can look it up, 1,374 each.
It allows for a fair head-to-head comparison. Despite playing in parks unfavorable to offense — Shea and Citi — Wright actually has more homers (222) and a better slugging percentage (.506) than Cano (204/.504), a lefty shooting at the short Stadium porch.
Actually, it’s surprising how many edges Wright has — big ones, for example, in steals (183-38) and on-base percentage (.382-.355). If you use a stat that normalizes for park and league, such as OPS-plus, Wright leads (137-125) or a stat that also includes defense and baserunning, Wright leads in Wins Above Replacement (46.6-45.2).
Cano beats just about anyone in the majors in durability. But Wright has proven he is the Mets’ Derek Jeter — capable of being spokesman and face of a franchise. Jay Z is pitching this about Cano, but — to date — there are no signs Cano has the charisma for that role.
So it’s understandable why the Yankees have wanted to also make a financial comparison of Wright to Cano. Wright signed for eight years at $138 million, further lowering the $17.25 million annual average by deferring $15.5 million of his salary.
But it is simply not apples to apples. Wright was not a free agent. He made it clear he wanted to stay and put his money where his desire was. If he were a free agent now — as he would be if he had spurned the Mets — the offers would be flying from the Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants and others, possibly even the Yankees, if they were completely beyond Alex Rodriguez.
Four executives queried said Wright would get less in this market than Cano, speculating a spectrum of $165 million to $185 million. I think that is light considering teams would project even more from Wright outside of Citi Field, away from the Mets lineup and free of having to be the voice of a team with so much baggage.
And that is the reality with free agency, as opposed to a one-team negotiation. You never know how a player will be valued — or over-valued — you never know what the pressure points on an organization are that will push it to go above and beyond expectations.
The Yankees have offered Cano seven years for about $165 million, with hints of maxing out at $170 million with an option for an eighth year. The $170 million figure would equate to $24.285 million a year, third most ever among position players behind just A-Rod and Ryan Howard. The Yankees feel this is the premium north of Wright that takes into account free agency.
Yet, the Yanks privately have believed someone would exceed that, particularly fearing the Mariners, who have contacted Cano’s representatives and have given the feeling within the industry they are going to act boldly in this market. As one AL executive said, “They have lots of money and lots of desperation and that is a dangerous mix.”
Which is why the key question has never changed: What does Cano want? Is he privately telling his representatives to squeeze and squeeze the Yanks, but at the end of the day, he only wants to be a Yankee? Or is he following the last penny? Yankees officials believe he will follow the money.
They also swear, pledge, vow, etc., there is not going to be a last-second, keep-the-player $200 million bid or even a significant increase from where their offer is now. They are serious about getting under $189 million in 2014 and about learning from past mistakes about over-extending into players’ infirmed years.
So, of all things, Kansas City might beat them out for Carlos Beltran because the Royal might give a 36-year-old with withered knees three years and the Yankees won’t. And the Mariners might get Cano because of a willingness to exceed $200 million.
Again, check pressure points. The Royals have gone the longest without making the playoffs (1985), the window for their current core is closing. They must win now. Only the Royals and Blue Jays have gone longer without the playoffs than the Mariners, who have hemorrhaged fans and had one top hitter after another spurn them to avoid their remote location and large stadium. They know they must overpay to be relevant again.
The Yankees are desperate, too, following a never-rebuild blueprint and an aversion to missing the playoffs two straight years. Yet they insist they will move on from Cano before following the high bidder. They believe they can use Cano’s money and — they hope — that of a suspended A-Rod to piece together a 2014 contender without damning the future too much.
So what does Cano do? Going for the money is totally legit. No one kills movie stars or hedge-fund folks from doing so. But if it is to Seattle, Cano should know how it would look.
He will be trading in the community of friends and family he has created in Washington Heights for the state of Washington, which is the furthest away he could get on the major league map from his Dominican home base. He will join a team without a winning legacy, but with a GM (Jack Zduriencik) on the rocks and no certainty even with a money infusion of outdoing the A’s, Rangers and Angels today, and the burgeoning Astros tomorrow in the AL West. It will kill a legacy with the most important team with which to have a legacy. It will hurt his Hall of Fame credentials by going to a park that dims offense. It will take him to the place his pal, A-Rod, ran from because he wanted to be a star off the field, at a time when Jay Z is promising off-field pearls.
So after all this time we ask the most important question again: What do you want, Robinson Cano?