The Yankees and Dodgers have long been viewed as the teams likely to be most aggressive in trying to win the negotiating rights for Masahiro Tanaka when (if?) a new posting system is finalized between Major League officials and their Japanese counterparts.
However, executives from two clubs that expect to at least participate in the bidding said to keep an eye out for the Cubs. An executive for one of the teams said, “They are my stealth candidate here to be really aggressive.”
The theory: The Cubs are loaded with as many high-end position prospects (Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler) as any club, but do not have pitching anywhere near that. They have tried to sign their best prime-aged starter, Jeff Samardzija, long-term, unsuccessfully, and probably will have to trade him, possibly as soon as this offseason. Meaning they will have yet another starter to replace.
In addition, the Cubs have been absent from big-game hunting since Tom Ricketts bought the team in August 2009, perhaps because the front office of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer believe it was important to grow organically and not put expensive window dressing on a rebuilding program. But there are officials who say the sale contains provisions that financially handcuff Ricketts that would not be a factor for a posted player. For what it is worth, Epstein and Hoyer were the GM and assistant GM of the Red Sox when they gave a then-record $51.1 million posting fee to land Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Still, to win this bidding, the Cubs might have to find a style beyond aggressive, since the Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox are expected to be significant bidders.
Of course, this all depends on a new posting system being in place in time for this offseason – and what that system will be. One person briefed on the matter said he believed that if something is not resolved in the next 7-10 days, the probability of having a system this offseason all but disappears, because MLB teams need to know sooner or later whether to budget for the chase.
Officials for the two sides and the Players Association met in person last week, and were expected to continue talks this week by phone. MLB officials have been determined to try to lower the fees transferred from their teams to Japanese clubs as part of the process to gain exclusive negotiating rights, and have indicated that the days of giving more than $51 million to a Japanese team simply for the right to then negotiate with Matsuzaka or Yu Darvish is gone.
MLB has a current proposal that involves a max threshold of just $20 million. In this scenario, MLB teams could put in a blind bid from nothing to $20 million, no more. What would happen if multiple teams bid $20 million – which would almost certainly be the case with Tanaka – has not fully been determined. However, the likelihood is the Japanese player would get to pick with which team he wants to negotiate.
Japanese officials are said to be strongly against this system, feeling it does not pay their teams enough for the player.
Twins always liked Hughes
The Twins wanted Phil Hughes as the key piece for Johan Santana after the 2007 season, and their interest in Hughes never waned, even as that particular deal died. They finally got their man with a three-year, $24 million agreement.
Minnesota officials view Hughes as in need of a change of scenery, out of New York and also out of Yankee Stadium. He is an extreme flyball pitcher who was long-balled out of the Yankees plan, unable to cope with the short right-field porch. Target Field was the second-hardest AL stadium to hit a homer in last year.
But the Twins also like that Hughes is still just 27. Minnesota does not see itself as a contender in 2014. However, with two of baseball’s best prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, the Twins feel they could improve rapidly in 2015 and beyond. And, because of Hughes’ age, they feel if they could fix him, the right-hander would still be in his prime and under contract in 2015-16.
Jays ran out of patience with Arencibia
The Blue Jays traded Travis d’Arnaud last year mainly because they wanted R.A. Dickey and the Mets were insistent on d’Arnaud, and partly because Toronto hoped J.P. Arencibia could be a long-term solution at catcher; that his power could make up for his shortcomings.
But the deficiencies won out. Jays officials say they could no longer tolerate the strikeouts (148 last year) and the inability to get on base (Arencibia’s .227 on-base percentage was the second worst ever in a season for someone allowed to amass 497 plate appearances). So the Blue Jays signed one-time Yankees prospect Dioner Navarro to a two-year, $8 million pact.
Navarro is a switch-hitter who limits his strikeouts and is coming off an .856 OPS last season with the Cubs. Navarro played briefly with the Reds in 2012 and word is he credits a friendship formed with uber-patient first baseman Joey Votto for helping to upgrade his offense.
But Toronto is asking Navarro to be a full-time catcher, which he has not been for the past four seasons, and also to belie his reputation for not working hard. Navarro told Jays officials a year of riding International League buses in 2012 has changed his work habits and motivation. The Blue Jays plan to stick with former Met Josh Thole as their backup because they know he can catch Dickey’s knuckleball.
A’s inking Kazmir puts Colon, Anderson in play
The Athletics’ two-year, $22 million signing of Scott Kazmir has two immediate impacts on the market:
1. Free agent Bartolo Colon will not be back in Oakland and you could imagine the Mets and Yankees being interested in him, if Colon is willing to sign a one-year deal. As well as Colon pitched for the A’s the past two seasons (28-15, 2.99 ERA), Oakland showed no desire to go two years with a pitcher who turns 41 in May, battles his weight and has a PED suspension in his recent past. The A’s were more willing to gamble on Tim Hudson (who they also offered two years at $22 million before he signed with the Giants) though he fractured his ankle last year and Kazmir, who had pitched one major league game between 2011-12.
2. Oft-injured but talented lefty Brett Anderson becomes a trade chip for the A’s. In fact, the trade market for starters is becoming crowded. It is led by the Rays’ David Price, but also includes Anderson, the Tigers’ Rick Porcello and the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija. It will be interesting if their presence chills the market for the top starters available in free agency: Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana.