Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Don’t expect other teams to replicate Red Sox blueprint

The Red Sox’s championship blueprint already is obsolete.

The Macarena lasted longer as a fad. Oh, we are going to see plenty of teams try to emulate Boston’s template this offseason — which is in part why it has come and gone before the champagne has dried at Fenway.

But before getting into the magic general manager Ben Cherington pulled last offseason — and if it is repeatable by other organizations — let’s understand better what he was building upon.

For the calamity of 2012 masked just how much talent was on the Red Sox. They won 69 games, but they were not a 69-win team. They were a .500 team as late as Aug. 6 before they collapsed because of 1) too many injuries, 2) the mental/emotional fatigue that became part of Bobby Valentine’s one season as manager, and 3) the talent drain that came with the late-August trade-away of Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto.

Still, once restored to health, the Red Sox began a rebuilding job with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury as a core, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Will Middlebrooks, Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa as quality secondary pieces and Xander Bogaerts in the wings as the best of a fertile farm system.

In other words, most teams are not entering the free agent process with the cornerstone Boston did last year. Plus, the trade of Beckett/Crawford/Gonzalez/Punto had freed cash for the Red Sox to supplement what already was present.

Nevertheless, it is that supplementing other teams believe is within their reach. MLB might not be quite the copycat league the NFL is, but I have talked to officials on many clubs — the Mets, for example — who are hoping to follow the Red Sox path. Essentially the idea is to diversify the portfolio by ignoring the top of the market and players who are given qualifying offers (and thus would cost a draft pick to sign) and, instead, sign a multitude of good-to-very-good free agents to address myriad needs while not taking huge financial/long-term gambles.

It is a sound strategy. Perhaps, even brilliant. And the chances of repeating it are as likely as Alex Rodriguez becoming commissioner.

First of all, Cherington went seven-for-seven in free agency. Even the worst of the group, Ryan Dempster, provided most of what he was brought in for — innings-eating steadiness. While players such as Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Koji Uehara either reached their best-projection ceiling — or exceeded it.

The likelihood of going even four-for-four without a dud are smaller than Uehara’s ERA. Seven-for-seven is ridiculous. Teams just are not going to repeat that success. In part because this free agent class is even worse in volume of good-to-very-good alternatives than last year. Also, last offseason was the first with the new qualifying rules, and many teams were less aggressive in putting the $13.3 million tender on free agents. The league-wide suspicion is, with a year of education, more teams will put what is now a $14.1 million tender on their free agents.

Let’s use Stephen Drew as an example to explain why. Boston might not feel Drew is worth more than the $10 million- to $11 million-a-year range. But that is on a multi-year deal. They are willing to pay a few million dollars more to have him for one year and avoid the long-term risk. And if he rejects the qualifying offer — which is likely — the Red Sox will receive a draft pick between the first and second rounds as compensation when he signs elsewhere.

Remember, none of Boston’s seven signings was a qualified free agent. The Red Sox lost zero draft picks to make their haul.

But here is the biggest factor in why there will not be a team capable of repeating the Red Sox strategy: Boston essentially was the only club doing this last year. The Red Sox aggressively dominated the middle market. They had competition on each individual, but no one was prioritizing this particular class and acting as boldly as Boston. Yet, Boston never gave more than a three-year contract (Victorino was the only Sox addition to receive more than two years), and their total outlay for the seven free agents was $100.45 million — or less than the $103 million combined already bestowed this offseason by the Giants on the fading Tim Lincecum (two years, $35 million) and by the White Sox on a Cuban mystery, Jose Abreu (six years, $68 million).

This is the beginning, I believe, of many teams trying to diversify their portfolios in response to the Red Sox. The cost, however, is going to be vastly different. Because if there is a smaller group of middle-class players available and more teams are chasing them, then there will be no middle class — they will be bid to the upper middle class (see Economics 101, Supply and Demand).

A team such as the Mets, who a few months ago could hope their $30 million-ish to spend could go a long way to fill holes, probably is going to learn their dollars do not go as far.

Especially because there are other factors that are going to run up the prices, namely more teams having money and a desire to spend it.

The new national TV deal begins sending an additional $25 million (approximately) to each club. The cap restrictions on the draft and for young international players have clubs looking to spend elsewhere for talent — which is how multiple teams bid more than $60 million on Abreu, an older free-agent first baseman for whom some level of doubt exists if he can handle elite major league pitching.

The playoff appearances for smaller-market clubs such as Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pittsburgh — who had three of the five lowest payrolls in the majors — are going to motivate more organizations to spend, believing every team has a chance.

The template now, though, is the champion Red Sox. They created a path many will attempt to follow. And it very well may be that the path doesn’t even exist any longer.