Dave Blezow

Dave Blezow

NFL

Blezow’s NFL picks Week 8

OK, we all get it. Without the flag on the illegal push on Nick Folk’s missed 56-yard field goal, the Patriots probably get 20 yards, kick their own field goal and win the game. And that would have left the Jets just another team with a losing record. So it really is a fine line between what they were supposed to be and how they are viewed now by some: a gritty, hard-working, never-say-die band of overachievers who are actually playoff contenders.

Still, there were two encouraging elements to the Patriots game. First, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s willingness to stick with the power running game when it was working against a Patriots’ front seven that was minus Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. And second, the go-ahead to let Geno Smith take off and run as a weapon instead of just a last resort.

Combine those things with the Jets’ stout defense and it may just add up to an upset win in Cincinnati that finally gets the Jets off the W-L-W-L roller-coaster. And the near-touchdown spread is a safety net in case they can’t quite pull it off.

The pick: Jets +6¹/₂.

Giants (+5¹/₂) over EAGLES: Normally don’t like taking teams that are traveling off a home Monday night win, but the spread seems a nice cushion here. Eagles have lost nine in a row outright at home, so that’s no picnic either. Tom Coughlin did a good job tweaking Hakeem Nicks this week, and the Giants’ passing game could break out against a porous Philly defense.

49ers (-16¹/₂) over Jaguars (in London): Must be fun for the Jaguars to drag their 0-7 carcasses all the way to Wembley Stadium to take on a tough 49ers team motivated by having to chase Seattle in the NFC West standings. San Francisco practiced this week in Ohio, a smart move by Jim Harbaugh to cut distance off what would have been a 5,300-mile trip.

Cowboys (+3) over LIONS: Home-team minus-3 is the definition of an even game. Matt Stafford and Tony Romo are tied for first in the NFC with 15 touchdown passes, and are 1-2 in yardage respectively, Stafford ahead by 119 yards. Both teams are plus-5 in turnover ratio and have some big-name injury concerns. Just going to accept the modest head start and hope it makes the difference.

CHIEFS (-7¹/₂) over Browns: Many-time retread Jason Campbell replaces awful Brandon Weeden at quarterback for the Browns. He may be somewhat of an improvement, but Arrowhead is a tough place to have to step into the fray.

SAINTS (-11) over Bills: Credit to the Steele Trap selections for pointing out the Saints have covered 11 in a row at home and have won their last four off a bye by an average of 15 points. The bye angle is key here because they have had two weeks to stew over their loss at New England.

Dolphins (+6¹/₂) over PATRIOTS: The loss off Wilfork (and, to an extent, Mayo) in the middle of the defense will continue to plague the Patriots. Bill Belichick will try to make it up in schemes, but he won’t find another player like Wilfork.

RAIDERS (+2¹/₂) over Steelers: Terrelle Pryor had a 10-sack, three-interception nightmare in ear-shattering Arrowhead before the bye. Even so, the Raiders were in that game late. Pryor is 2-0 at home and has had two weeks to rehab a troublesome ankle.

Redskins (+12¹/₂) over BRONCOS: Shaping up as a similar matchup to Denver’s 51-48 win at Dallas, only this time Peyton Manning is dealing with a minor ankle injury. He will play, but John Fox will have to be at least a little more careful with him. Skins scored 45 points against the Bears, who have a better D than Denver’s.

CARDINALS (-2¹/₂) over Falcons: No great love or trust in the Cardinals, but we do tap into a 75 percent trend here, as teams off a Thursday night game are 9-3 against the spread this season. That extra rest jibes nicely with the Falcons’ long trip, too.

VIKINGS (+9) over Packers: Pride game for the Vikings at home on national TV after embarrassment versus Giants. Christian Ponder is back in, and at least he knows some plays. Can’t lay this much on road with Packers missing Jermichael Finley and Clay Matthews.

MONDAY NIGHT

Seahawks (-11) over RAMS: Can lay this much on the road with Seattle’s NFC-best defense against Kellen Clemens, who starts his 13th game in his eighth NFL season. With Seahawks, we also get that winning trend with teams that played the previous Thursday night.

BEST BETS: Redskins, Cardinals,

Seahawks.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Redskins (Locks 3-4)

LAST WEEK: 7-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets

THURSDAY NIGHT: Panthers