Already, these 2013 Red Sox have accomplished something, even before taking on the Cardinals in the World Series:
They’ll go down in baseball history as the most expensive surprise team ever, having rebounded from the last-place, 69-93 effort of 2012 to being the last American League team standing this season, all at the price of about $160 million.
Which creates a natural follow-up question: As aggravating as this Red Sox success has been for the Yankees and their fans, is it sustainable? Has the Yankees’ worst nightmare of a well-operated, well-financed, perennially competitive rival re-emerged after only a short run as a dynasty gone wrong?
As the Magic 8 Ball would say: “Signs point to yes.”
“I do think they’re in it for the long haul,” an American League general manager said, on the condition of anonymity. “The core of the team is under control. They have an excellent farm system and big revenues.”
Opined a second AL GM: “It’s sustainable for two main reasons: 1) The strength of their farm system — which they will be able to lean on more heavily once these current short-term deals expire — and 2) Their financial might to help them plug holes as some of their internal options fall short.”
It’s amazing how forces have crystallized in the Red Sox’s favor since their Aug. 25, 2012 trade with the Dodgers, in which they liberated themselves from about $240 million of commitments to Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.
Go beyond the fact second-year general manager Ben Cherington spent that money well on free agents like Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, ALCS Game 6 hero Shane Victorino and ALCS Most Valuable Player Koji Uehara. You have to add that first-year skipper John Farrell, who nudged a trade from the Blue Jays last year as Toronto’s fortunes turned South, proved the perfect fit in reuniting to the club that employed him as a pitching coach from 2007 through 2010 — and he also put together an excellent staff.
Just as important as anything else, the Red Sox’s farm system, which delivered very little as the team collapsed in 2011 and stunk last year, returned with a vengeance thanks to the arrivals of youngsters like Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Workman and Jose Iglesias, whom the team used as a trade chip (going to Detroit in a three-way deal) for White Sox starting pitcher Jake Peavy.
“The Red Sox have a top-flight system,” a front-office talent evaluator from a third AL team said.
The farm system of course lays the foundation, a reality the Yankees have been discussing internally at length since an Aug. 19 meeting in Tampa. Outfield prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. could help replace Jacoby Ellsbury if the center fielder goes elsewhere via free agency. As the Red Sox’s veteran starting rotation ages, Workman could step up as a back-end guy, and Felix Doubront still possesses upside.
Yet that’s not the only reason opposing officials envision the Red Sox sticking around for a while. A coach from a fourth AL team pointed out the model the big-league Red Sox have built, one that relies on a strong bullpen and a versatile offense in which speed is a significant factor. The Red Sox ranked third in the AL with 123 regular-season stolen bases, and their 86.6 success percentage topped those of the two teams with more steals — the Royals (153-for-185, 82.7 percent) and the Rangers (149-for-195, 76.4 percent).
“They’re shortening games. That and the fact that they’re built to run now, that sustains in the [AL] East,” the coach said. “You have to close out games from 7 to 8 to 9. Once you get in the playoffs, even more so.”
The Red Sox have a big winter ahead. Five important players — Drew, Ellsbury, Joel Hanrahan, Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia — are eligible for free agency. The manager of a fifth AL team pondered: “They had that great cohesion there that everyone wants. So you break that up, it may hurt a little.”
Nevertheless, even this manager said: “They’re still the Red Sox, so they will reload.”
As they showed recently enough, throwing dollars around can actually create more problems than it solves. But the Red Sox seem to have learned from their mistakes of the past, and all systems are go.
Win or lose this coming week, the Red Sox look poised to seriously contend for a while. We know how quickly such great plans can fall apart; someone once said you can’t predict baseball. However, if you’re writing off this Red Sox triumph as a fluke, then you’re ignoring the many factors that indicate otherwise.