There are five weeks until the NFL draft, five weeks until the Giants are on the clock with one of the most fascinating decisions in their history, a crossroads for their fans, their franchise and their foundation.
The player they take and the players they eschew with the No. 2 overall pick on the night of April 26 speak directly to this organization’s view of the past, its commitment to the present and plan for the future. This draft could define Dave Gettleman’s legacy as general manager, shape Pat Shurmur’s tenure as head coach and define the Eli Manning exit strategy.
Things can change in the coming weeks, and nothing is set in stone just yet. Based on conversations, observations, machinations and educated guesswork, here are scenarios The Post views as most pressing for the Giants as they brace for this monumental draft:
The Giants are not likely to take a quarterback, Part 1: There is no need to check Eli Manning’s birth certificate; his employer did not forget how old (37) he is. Gettleman is not against setting the franchise up with its quarterback for the next decade — if he views one of these prospects as worthy. The Giants do not think this quarterback class is in the same league as the Manning-Ben Roethlisberger-Philip Rivers class of 2004. Back then, the Giants (and most of the NFL) projected all three as capable of starting soon and starring forever. The Giants see the success of this year’s group as more hope than expectation.
The Giants are not likely to take a quarterback, Part 2: When their draft board is finalized, the expectation is Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Josh Allen will not be one of the top three overall players listed. All three, of course, will be assigned high first-round grades, but all three will fall short of the top three. The strong feeling is the Giants will have running back Saquon Barkley, guard Quenton Nelson and defensive end Bradley Chubb as their highest-rated players (not necessarily in that order). So, it would go against their draft-day rules at No. 2 to take a quarterback not rated as the No. 1, 2 or 3 player on their board. Reaching for a player is a sign of desperation, and the Giants do not see themselves as desperate to find Manning’s replacement, legitimately believing he has two years left in him — as long as they improve the talent, protection and play-making around him.
A running back so high? Sure, why not? There is nothing the Giants do not like, or love, about Barkley. His interview with them at the Scouting Combine was wonderful. Gettleman, with the Panthers last year, owned the No. 8 pick and took Christian McCaffrey, a gifted running back but not nearly the complete package Barkley offers an NFL team. The belief is Barkley will be the top-rated player on the Giants’ draft board, and they see him as enlivening and perhaps extending Manning’s career, as the offense finally returns the play-action threat to his arsenal.
If the Browns take Barkley at No. 1, then what? It looks as if the Browns will go for Darnold, but if they wait on a quarterback and take Barkley, the guess here is the Giants take Chubb. They view the drop-off at defensive end after Chubb as much greater than the drop-off at guard after Nelson. The Giants are confident they can get a starting-caliber guard in the second round, with the 34th overall pick. They believe Chubb stands alone as the best all-around defensive end in this draft. Plus, they are cognizant they pushed Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon to near-exhaustion last year, and that in their Super Bowl-winning years they had a formidable three-man rotation at defensive end. Chubb would get at least 30 snaps a game, immediately, and could be viewed, as early as 2019, as JPP’s replacement. Plus, as someone with knowledge of the Giants’ thinking said, Chubb is “squeaky clean.”
So, the Giants are not keen on Nelson? Au contraire. They love him. They could envision him anchoring their offensive line for a decade, a bigger, better Chris Snee, which is quite a standard to live up to. The feeling is the Giants think No. 2 is too high for a guard, even one the quality of Nelson. If he played offensive tackle, he would be the pick. He still could be, though — Nelson is that good.
Let’s get back to the quarterbacks: It is understandably difficult for many fans to jump off the quarterback trail, rightly so, considering the Giants have not drafted this high in 37 years. Gettleman has assigned two nearly impossible prerequisites for this No. 2 pick: It must be a player he can envision becoming a Hall of Famer, and the player must not only be worthy of the No. 2 selection this year, but in any year. The strong feeling here: The Giants believe Darnold, Rosen and Allen do not meet these criteria, while Barkley and Nelson unquestionably fit, and Chubb might as well.
What about a trade down? The notion “quarterback or else they must trade out” is not flying with the Giants. Again, go back to Gettleman, who stressed, “You can’t get too cute” here. You see a player with the potential for greatness, you take him. Now, if the Giants get blown away by the Broncos (sitting at No. 5), do they move down? They definitely would consider it, especially if at No. 5 they can get Nelson. Sliding all the way down in a deal with the Bills could bring back No. 12 and 22 in the first round and, in the second round, the 53rd and 65th overall picks, plus a 2019 second-round pick. It is believed Gettleman would hold out for more — the Bills would have to include their 2019 first-round pick. That is a bounty the Giants would have to consider, but the smart money is on them staying put and taking a player they see greatness in.
Reading the tea leaves: Has any Giants move to this point indicated anything other than all-in on winning now? They put their faith in a quarterback entering his 15th season. They made a left tackle (Nate Solder), who will be 30 before he ever dons a Giants uniform and has never been named to a Pro Bowl, the league’s highest-paid offensive lineman. They signed Jonathan Stewart, a running back with too much tread on his tires — he turns 31 on Wednesday — to mentor the room (hello, Saquon) and get the tough yards. A rookie quarterback needing a few years to develop does not seem to fit.