In the past 24 hours, I have had multiple executives play connect the dots, with the end result being Sonny Gray ends up a Dodger.
Yet every time I check, I hear he is not a front-burner issue for them and that other teams will value the A’s righty more (translation: give up a better return than Los Angeles is willing to). Also, Oakland’s scouts continue to canvas mainly the systems of the Yankees, Astros, Braves and Brewers.
Nevertheless, even as the Dodgers view their chances of landing Gray as slim at best, they were portrayed by a few executives as anything from a stalking horse staying on the periphery in case teams like the Astros and Yankees pivot elsewhere to one outside official calling them the favorites, making this case:
1. Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Gray, having been part of the A’s infrastructure that drafted and developed the righty, and familiarity from Oakland is partially how Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir got free-agent deals with Los Angeles.
2. Zaidi is tight with the A’s front office from their time together, which helped facilitate a big trade at last year’s deadline, when the Dodgers landed Rich Hill and Josh Reddick for three pitching prospects.
3. There are a lot of similarities to that trade. There were persistent questions about Hill’s ability to stay healthy, as there are with Gray. But the Dodgers have shown when they like the upside of a starter such as Hill, McCarthy, Kazmir or Kenta Maeda, they will tolerate the physical red flags to get what they perceive as high-end quality. However, in all of those cases but Hill, the risk was just free-agent dollars, and the Dodgers are known to shield their best prospects in deals as much as any organization.
4. The Dodgers have a quest to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2019. They shed significant contracts in the next two offseasons: Kazmir, McCarthy, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-jin Ryu, the already released Carl Crawford and possibly Clayton Kershaw if he opts out after next season. That Gray is under control through 2019 would enable the Dodgers to have a relatively cost-certain pitcher in that season without having to delve into expensive free agency.
5. Kershaw is on the DL with another back injury. The Dodgers believe they will get him back in time to prep for the playoffs. If he does return, then Gray (superb in his one postseason experience in 2013) would slot in to start a Game 2 or likely 3. If Kershaw does not return, then the presence of Gray would still give the Dodgers a fighter’s chance to win their first World Series since 1988, especially if Los Angeles also deepens its pen by adding someone such as San Diego’s Brad Hand.
6. Dodgers officials are said to be sensitive to the dynamic that when a team has played as well as theirs, the clubhouse expects its front office to honor that with a significant move. Because it has the playoffs all but assured — the Dodgers were 71-31 and led the NL West by 12½ games — they are looking for difference-makers to raise the likelihood of getting through October, not to October.
That is why the Dodgers have been circling Zach Britton and especially Yu Darivsh. They had seen Darvish as having the best stuff of any starter on the market. But the trade rumors might be getting to Darvish, who is known to not want to leave the Rangers. The Marlins blasted him for 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings Wednesday, and in five July starts the righty has a 7.20 ERA and an .871 OPS against. Meanwhile, Gray in his past six starts — amid heavy rumors — has a 1.37 ERA and .486 OPS against.
The irony is the Rangers’ play has pushed GM Jon Daniels more seriously to shop Darvish, whose subpar pitching has helped both create the poor play and perhaps a less desirable market for him. With Jose Quintana traded and Darvish struggling, Gray becomes even more distinct in the marketplace.
Britton, meanwhile, stood out as the elite reliever who made tons of sense for the Dodgers or Astros. But he missed two months with a forearm injury and in eight appearances from July 7 to 26, the lefty permitted six earned runs — two more than all of last year.
There still are Astros officials who see the potential Britton would bring to a postseason bullpen. But the reticence about his health would make it hard for Houston or any team to appease Baltimore with enough of a prospect return.
That could shift a bunch of clubs more fully to Gray.
Earlier this week, executives from teams interested in Gray were forecasting the Yankees as the front-runner. But the Yankees always have valued Gray lower than Quintana because Quintana is lefty, at least as talented, had one extra year of control and more history of durability, and because of that have indicated they would keep their offer to less than what they bid to the White Sox for Quintana.
Will that be enough to a) get the A’s to budge and b) outbid others?