Matt Harvey 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 25 starts.
Would you sign up for that, Mets fans?
How about a .770 OPS, 12 homers and 85 games played for David Wright?
If you could get it in writing today, would you rather see how it plays out and hope for better or agree to a 30-game suspension for Jeurys Familia, 20 starts for Steven Matz, 15 for Zack Wheeler and 25 homers from Lucas Duda?
Four weeks before pitchers and catchers and the Mets are a World Series possibility. But also in contention for the most volatile team in the sport. You could imagine the Mets blowing up — either way. The rotation can be great or a physical wreck, the lineup deep or a DL caravan, the bullpen powerful or too shallow.
Four members of the rotation will be working back from some form of arm surgery. Three starting infielders are returning from serious back injuries. The closer faces a ban via the domestic abuse protocols. There are too many outfielders — particularly lefty-hitting outfielders — and too few reliable relievers.
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Many teams backed away from Yoenis Cespedes concerned that long-term contract protection would bring out his worst diva instincts. Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto must rebound, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo must repeat. Addison Reed must show that last season was not a fluke. Noah Syndergaard must continue to show that a pitcher can throw this hard without breaking down.
The Mets never have made the playoffs three straight seasons. This team is talented enough to change that, yet combustible enough to crumble. No team is perfect. Every club has potential ranges of outcomes. I am just not sure that any high-end contender has quite the pendulum of possibilities of these Mets. Such is the boom-and-bust qualities surrounding not just each unit, but nearly every vital player on the team.
Say what you will about Bartolo Colon’s age and girth, but just talking 2017, I would think he is a better bet to make 30 starts than any current twentysomething Met. He is a Brave now. What would you establish as the over/under for total starts from Harvey, Matz, Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom? The closer the number is to 120 the greater the likelihood the Mets win the NL East. It was 93 last year. Would you bet higher or lower in 2017?
Wheeler has not thrown a major league pitch in two years. He might work out of the bullpen as a way to control his innings, spoon-feed him back and address a relief shortcoming. So even in a hybrid role in 2017, do you think he will reach 80 innings?
In 15 combined starts, Gsellman and Lugo were 8-3 with a 2.66 ERA. Nothing in their pedigree suggested that was coming or can be continued again. But the same was said about deGrom. If Gsellman/Lugo has to double to, say, 30 combined starts in 2017, would you make the over/under a 3.66 ERA? 4.66 ERA?
Colon, Gsellman and Lugo helped keep the Met rotation elite despite health issues for deGrom, Harvey and Matz. That was vital to protect a Met offense, which somehow managed just 671 runs despite hitting 218 homers. To put that in context, 160 teams in history have hit at least 199 homers in a season. The fewest runs scored in a season by any of them were those 671 by the Mets last year.
It spoke to horrendous clutch numbers and the inability to manufacture runs beyond hitting the ball over the fence. The Mets return the same group, a year older. Can it be healthier and more productive with runners in scoring position? Because the power should be there again.
If the Mets retain Jay Bruce and have him aligned with Cespedes and Curtis Granderson, the defense will be suspect, but they will have three of the four current NL East outfielders to hit 30 homers last season (Atlanta’s Matt Kemp also did it). Healthy, the Mets could get 100-120 homers from Duda, Neil Walker, Wright and Asdrubal Cabrera. But each is a physical red flag with Wright, in particular, a mystery if he will play anywhere from zero to 120 games as he tries to cope with spinal stenosis.
Despite the reduction in his health and production, Wright’s seven homers in 164 2016 plate appearances still gave him one in every 23 plate appearances, which was similar to his best power seasons. Teams could do far worse than Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares and Jose Reyes for depth and Conforto and d’Arnaud as potential rebound wild cards.
The roles of Lagares and Conforto would expand if the Mets trade Bruce, which would have the residual benefit that they would get to add to the bullpen. The Mets are bracing for life without Familia for at least April. Which might actually be a blessing. Over the last three years (postseason included), Familia has pitched in the most games (243) and is tied with Dellin Betances for most relief innings (248²/₃). Reed has plenty of closing experience, but the Mets must expect some regression after the right-hander went into last year with a career 4.01 ERA and finished 2017 at 1.97. Beyond that, the most proven/stable guy is Hansel Robles at a time when the Mets will want a deep, dependable pen to support that fragile rotation.
In a glass half-filled world, you could look at each Mets issue and see talent and a chance for excellence. Half empty and you see all the worries about health and performance. The pendulum swings. Where will it stop for the 2017 Mets?