Here is my war on WAR.
I like what Wins Above Replacement attempts — to provide a singular stat to sum up a players’ hitting, fielding and baserunning — and I am glad it exists as a tool to think further about overall skill.
My aggravation is about how devoted so many have become that WAR defines the best players in order. It begins with “Wins,” but I do not believe the stat — by the way, calculated differently and with different results on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs — fully honors what helps produce wins.
Let me try drilling down on a few of these items.
For the second straight year, Jose Ramirez moved from third base to a different position when injury struck first in left field last season and at second base in 2017. The Indians were constructed to more easily find a replacement at third in both seasons than where Ramirez relocated and played brilliantly.
The Indians have won consecutive division titles and one big reason is Ramirez’s versatility camouflaged weakness. Thus, to me, some of the overall team WAR belongs on Ramirez’s individual ledger because he made winning more possible.
Going into the final weekend, Fangraphs’ version of WAR had Aaron Judge slightly ahead of Jose Altuve for the major league lead, and Baseball Reference had it the other way. Can you imagine if we were zealous about a system that had different players leading in homers or on-base percentage? Just as an aside, if you are using WAR as an end-all-be-all: Anthony Rendon was fourth in Fangraphs WAR going into the final weekend, 14th on Baseball Reference; Andrelton Simmons was fifth on Baseball Reference and 19th on Fangraphs.
But back to Altuve and Judge. Whatever system you use, they are 1-2 and close. But how they got there is different.
For seven weeks to open the second half, Judge’s performance dipped dramatically — it covers one-third of the season. Altuve had no such plummet. He has been a metronome of performance.
Ask any manager: Would they rather have a player slug .500 by reaching that number week after week and month after month or doing so by peaks and valleys of .700 and .300?
When games are played daily, consistency matters, as does durability. Mike Trout ranks third in the AL in Fangraphs WAR and fifth on Baseball Reference despite missing one-quarter of the season to injury. Maybe Altuve would have hit .400 if his body did not endure the wear of playing every day. That Trout is not penalized greater in WAR for a quarter of a season lost is a flaw.
My instinct tells me most teams probably have proprietary systems that calculate an all-inclusive stat, but factors in consistency and durability, and perhaps versatility as well. Something akin to AWAR — or Algorithm WAR. Because in the real world, those qualities are valuable to delivering wins, if not above replacement, then certainly against the opposition.
So I am guided by consistency and durability in trying to decide in so many cases which way to go in Hardball’s end of year awards:
AL MVP
Jose Altuve, Astros
The durability really mattered with George Springer and especially Carlos Correa missing time from the everyday Houston lineup. Altuve was there every day to hit, run and field in the middle of the diamond. What incredible value. Ramirez also had peaks and valleys in his season, but do you know despite all of Judge’s homers, Ramirez actually had 12 more extra-base hits than the Yankees slugger and was a more valuable defender?
2. Ramirez, Indians. 3. Judge, Yankees. 4. Trout, Angels. 5. Francisco Lindor, Indians.
Anti-AL MVP
Alex Gordon, Royals
It is fitting that the guy who hit the homer to break the major league record for most overall in a season would earn this distinction. Because hitting homers no longer assures you are having a positive season — and Gordon’s season was extremely negative. Rougned Odor reached 30 homers and was as big a disappointment as anyone in the game. And four of the best hitters of the era — Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols — looked closer to the end than the beginning.
2. Odor, Rangers. 3. Troy Tulowitzki, Blue Jays. 4. Bautista, Blue Jays. 5. Beltran, Astros.
NL MVP
Nolan Arenado, Rockies
I have always been a proponent come award season at looking at road numbers, feeling that players should generally be more comfortable, and thus, more productive at home. My feeling about road numbers providing a window into truer ability has only grown this year, with so many in the game claiming teams have worked out more devious sign-stealing mechanisms in their home parks.
Usually emphasizing road numbers hurts those who call Coors Field home, because the splits are often so dramatically better for Rockies players at home — and I think Charlie Blackmon’s candidacy is hurt by the disparity in his numbers. Therefore, I was surprised that Arenado’s road numbers were better than Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt. And when you factor in Arenado’s great defense, I think that gives him a thin edge.
2. Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. 3. Joey Votto, Reds. 4. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins. 5. Rendon, Nationals.
Anti-NL MVP
Ian Desmond, Rockies
Desmond managed just a .650 OPS and two homers at Coors this year after signing a five-year, $70 million deal last offseason. He was supposed to be the everyday first baseman, but that disappeared quickly.
As a dishonorable mention, Pablo Sandoval — with the Red Sox then Giants — was awful in both leagues.
2. Starling Marte, Pirates. 3. Joc Pederson, Dodgers. 4. Maikel Franco, Phillies. 5. Brandon Crawford, Giants.
AL Cy Young
Chris Sale, Red Sox
Inning for inning, Corey Kluber outpitched Sale, and handing this honor to Kluber is justifiable — he is more and more this generation’s Greg Maddux with his precision and serenity from the mound. But I ask once more about durability. Sale struggled down the stretch and had four more starts than Kluber, who missed time with an injury. Might Sale have avoided those struggles with four fewer starts?
And just to flip to the road, where Sale threw 37 more innings than Kluber and had a better ERA, 2.71 to 2.83. Also, we probably shouldn’t have to make too many excuses for a guy who struck out 308 in an MLB-high 214 ¹/₃ innings.
2. Kluber, Indians. 3. Luis Severino, Yankees. 4. Justin Verlander, Tigers/Astros. 5. Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox.
Anti-AL Cy Young
Orioles rotation
I hope this is not viewed as a copout. It is just so many Baltimore starters pitched so horribly to give the team, by far, the worst rotation ERA in the majors.
Baltimore hoped Kevin Gausman would grow into an ace and had a 4.81 ERA. On the Orioles, that was well above average. As strictly starters, Chris Tillman had an 8.12 ERA, Ubaldo Jimenez 7.20, Jeremy Hellickson 6.97 and Wade Miley 5.52.
Rick Porcello won the Cy Young award last year and fell enough to at least be considered for this in 2017.
2. Francisco Rodriguez, Tigers. 3. Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers. 4. Ian Kennedy, Royals. 5. Porcello, Red Sox.
NL Cy Young
Max Scherzer, Nationals
A third Cy Young would tie Scherzer with Clayton Kershaw for most among current players and push him closer to being a Hall of Fame lock. He led NL qualifiers in hits per inning against and strikeouts.
2. Kershaw, Dodgers. 3. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks. 4. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals. 5. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers.
Anti-NL Cy Young
Matt Harvey, Mets
If it was just putrid pithing — Harvey’s 6.60 ERA was by far the worst in Mets history for anyone allowed to make 17 starts — Harvey might not be the top choice. But once going AWOL on your team is added to all the dark nights, you have one of the most disappointing years in Mets history.
2. Matt Moore, Giants. 3. Adam Wainright, Cardinals. 4. Mark Melancon, Giants. 5. Jim Johnson, Braves.
AL Rookie of the Year
Aaron Judge, Yankees
Even with the seven-week dip, Judge assembled one of the great rookie seasons ever. In both leagues with Oakland’s Matt Olson and Philadelphia’s Rhys Hoskins, you have to weigh what it means to come up late and hit a ton of homers against rookies who played well all year.
2. Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox. 3. Trey Mancini, Orioles. 4. Olson. 5. Jordan Montgomery, Yankees.
NL Rookie of the Year
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
Like Judge, an obvious choice. Judge and Bellinger led the way, but there were a record 10 rookies — four more than any other year — who reached 20 homers. Thus, many players who traditionally would appear on the ballot don’t this year.
2. Josh Bell, Pirates. 3. Paul DeJong, Cardinals. 4. German Marquez, Rockies. 5. Hoskins, Phillies.
AL Manager of the Year
Paul Molitor, Twins
No team had ever gone from triple-digit losses to the playoffs before these Twins. This is the second time in three years that Molitor has guided the Twins to much better than what was expected of them.
2. Terry Francona, Indians. 3. A.J. Hinch, Astros. 4. Mike Scioscia, Angels. 5. Joe Girardi, Yankees.
NL Manager of the Year
Craig Counsell, Brewers
I think Arizona’s Torey Lovullo will win this award, and that is understandable. But the Diamondbacks have superior talent and no one was going to be surprised if they contended for at least a wild card. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Brewers.
The Padres were terrible this season, but their roster suggests it should have been 100-plus losses, never competitive terrible. Hat tip to Andy Green that this undermanned team played hard throughout the season.
2. Lovullo. 3. Bud Black, Rockies. 4. Dave Roberts, Dodgers. 5. Green.