SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – All it takes is one signing perhaps to change perceptions and trigger others to act, but several veteran MLB executives and representatives anticipated a slow-moving free agent market.
Of course, there will be signings, but the anticipation was there would not be a gush of deals early for two reasons:
1. The Yankees and Dodgers, and maybe other clubs such as the Giants and Red Sox, would like a collective bargaining agreement settled to know what the future luxury tax thresholds and penalties will be before adding to payrolls.
For example, Hal Steinbrenner has continued to insist that getting under the threshold is important to him. The organization is focusing on trying to do so in 2018. The Yankees have the contracts for Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia coming off the books after 2017, and are looking into trading the two years at $36 million that Brian McCann is owed.
The luxury tax threshold at present is $189 million, and the Yankees have been repeat offenders long enough that they are taxed at 50 cents for every dollar over that line. They are hoping the threshold goes up in the next CBA and to get under that new, higher line for 2018. That would allow them to reset their tax at a lower percentage, which is particularly valuable heading into what is expected to be a star-studded free agency after the 2018 season headed by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
2. Because there is such a poor group of free-agent starters, teams want to take the early portion of the offseason to investigate if there are better options in trades, such as the Rays’ Chris Archer, the White Sox’s Chris Sale and the Tigers’ Justin Verlander.
There are several teams, such as the Astros and Rangers, that could use both a bat – which are in higher volume on the free-agent market – and a starter. However, many teams might be limiting themselves to one huge move/investment this offseason and need to know whether they can land the starter via trade before they delve too deeply into the free-agent bats.
Representatives for the hitters are going to want to wait, in general, to know what the full landscape of bidders looks like before getting their player signed.