For weeks, the expectation was if a prominent lefty starter were dealt before the July 31 deadline it would be David Price and/or — to a lesser extent — Cliff Lee.
But as the deadline moved ever closer, the constantly changing picture has left Lee pretty much a non-consideration — at least until August — and Price a having a slimmer and slimmer probability of being moved.
Instead, the two southpaw starters generating the most buzz around the game were Boston’s Jon Lester and Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels.
Both were being discussed even as skepticism lingered within the game whether two huge Northeastern teams would send the signals to their fan bases dealing such starters would entail. Nevertheless, both were available, and the reality of being in last place has the Red Sox and Phillies seeing just how high they could get the bidding.
Multiple executives said they expect the Dodgers to add a starting pitcher before the deadline and, in particular, to go fervently after Hamels or Lester.
The Dodgers have been reluctant to move the best of their system in a trade, even for Price. But because Hamels is signed through 2018 with an option for 2019, Los Angeles might be more amenable to moving at least one of their big three prospects — 17-year-old lefty phenom Julio Urias, outfielder Joc Pederson or shortstop Corey Seager.
Hamels is making $22.5 million this year and is owed four years at $96 million from 2015-18 if his 2019 option does not vest and at least five years at $109 million if it does. He is just 30 and — as opposed to older, less-productive pieces such as Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins — the Phillies prefer not to relinquish a prime-aged star performing well.
One executive said Philadelphia’s asking price signals a team not really ready to move Hamels, explaining, “unless it changes appreciably, I don’t see Hamels being moved. Their view of their players and their actual value have great discrepancies. He is a good pitcher, but no team is going to empty their system and absorb his salary, and that is pretty much the asking price now.”
The Dodgers are one of nine teams Hamels can be traded to without his permission. The Yankees are, as well, but the strong indication was the Yankees were in on everything but catchers in this market — starters, relievers, infielders and outfielders — but they did not want to give up serious parts of their farm system to make a deal.
As for Lester, the sentiment was growing that Boston would deal him for big prospects and — in a have-their-cake-and-eat-it-too strategy — try to sign him as a free agent after the season. Besides the Dodgers, the Mariners are interested in the Tacoma, Wash., native. Two top AL executives independently used the term “high probability” in describing the chances Lester would be dealt.
As for Price, essentially Tampa Bay budgeted and planned to have Price (making $14 million in 2014) this year and go for a championship with what it believed was its best team ever. An atrocious start to the season (24-42), however, forced the Rays to reroute and make Price available.
But Tampa Bay was an MLB-best 27-12 since June 11 and heading into Monday were 7 ¹/₂ games back in the AL East and 4 ¹/₂ in the wild card.
The Rays are a realistic group. They have to consider that even with their strong run, they were still three games under .500 and had a lot of heavy lifting to do to be a playoff team. However, their rotation (with Alex Cobb and now Jeremy Hellickson back) is fully healthy and, when fronted by Price, is no question the best group in the AL East and in the argument for the whole league. And that is why there is a growing sense Tampa Bay will hold Price at the deadline.
As one executive said, “I don’t think he is going anywhere. They are close enough to make a run at it with him and (because he is a free agent after next season) pick up trade talks again with a lot more knowledge after the season. They are a smart organization. They know they have to always be thinking about the future and keeping the talent coming and their payroll (low). So if they get overwhelmed between now and Thursday (in an offer for Price), I think they would consider it. But because they got back in this, I think they have to be overwhelmed into a no-brainer now to consider it.”