NHL salary arbitration cases that make it to a hearing almost invariably conclude with the arbiter’s award falling within 10 percent of the midpoint between the submissions of the player and his team.
In that case, following submissions on Monday by Chris Kreider for two years at $2.8 million per and the Rangers for two years at an average $2.05 million per ($1.9 million this year, $2.2 million for 2015-16), one would expect the first-line left wing to come away with a two-year contract worth an average between an average of $2.2 million and $2.7 million per.
Whether it’s high or low likely depends on the weight the arbitrator places on Kreider’s playoff production.
Kreider’s arbitration hearing is scheduled for Wednesday in Toronto, and as both sides continue to talk with the shared objective of reaching a settlement in advance of what is by definition an adversarial presentation despite all the best of intentions, the winger and the club would likely be better served reaching a compromise deal at approximately $2.425 million per.
This is the first of three hearings facing the Blueshirts, with Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello both on the docket for next week.
Negotiations on long-term deals continue as Zuccarello and Brassard would both become eligible for free agency next summer if the cases go to arbitration for one-year awards.
Kreider, who is coming off his entry-level deal and will then have one more salary arbitration year remaining before he can become a free agent in 2017, recorded 17 goals and 20 assists in 66 games in what was his officially designated rookie NHL season.
He, Calder winner Nathan MacKinnon of Colorado and Calder finalists Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson of Tampa Bay were the only four rookies to record at least 17 goals and 37 points.
The 24-year-old led the Rangers in plus-minus, led club forwards in relative Corsi and was fourth among forwards—behind Rick Nash, Benoit Pouliot and Brad Richards—in relative Corsi close.
He played on the first line with Nash and Derek Stepan and was a staple on the club’s first power play unit.
Kreider, who scored five goals in the 2012 playoffs fresh off the Boston College campus, recorded five in 15 games this year on the Blueshirts’ run to the Cup finals after missing the first 10 matches with the broken left hand he sustained late in the regular season.
He has recorded 11 goals and 22 points in 41 career playoffs matches.
Kreider and LA’s Drew Doughty are the only players age 24 or younger to record at least that many goals and points in the playoffs over the last three years.
The Rangers will likely attempt to justify their contract submission by pointing out Kreider’s lost 2012-13 in both the AHL and NHL; that he began last season in the minors after a disappointing training camp; and that Alain Vigneault routinely sat Kreider late in games in which the team held a one-goal lead (continuing through the playoffs) and would not use the winger during regular-season overtime because of the coach’s skepticism over his defensive abilities.
Really, though, since the arbitrator will all but certainly approximately split the difference, there’s no reason why the two parties shouldn’t be able to do so themselves prior to the scheduled hearing.