One of these days, the NFL finally may render fantasy running backs irrelevant, but that day is not here yet.
What the growing reliance on the passing game has done is limit the number of quality fantasy backs, making it increasingly more difficult to land two good ones.
This inspired Fantasy Insanity to develop the DVQ (Draft Value Quotient). The Madman wanted to find a way to demonstrate player value in relation to positions. Hence, the top of the rankings are loaded with RBs. Unlike quarterbacks, whose DVQs tend to rise later in the draft, the DVQ for RBs generally declines. This is because of a greater disparity in scoring for later-round backs compared to QB and other positions.
Bear in mind, the DVQ is a sliding scale, so a player’s DVQ rises or falls based on where he is projected to be drafted. The higher he is picked, the lower the DQV; the later he goes, the higher his rating.
For this list, we have ordered the backs by the little brother of DVQ, the P1E (Pick-1 Equation), which coincides with projected points. This tool provides a baseline to rate players without regard to draft position (it is the DVQ for each player if he were chosen No. 1 overall). Also listed are projected points (PPT), average draft position (ADP) and the DVQ for each player at his average draft position.
And now, the deluxe edition of the Insanity Insider running back rankings with updated DVQs:
1. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
P1E: 7.19, PPT: 260, ADP: 2.29, DVQ: 7.35
Great back, great offense, great results.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
P1E: 6.70, PPT: 250, ADP: 2.60, DVQ: 6.77
Great back. Improving offense (maybe?). Too good to ignore.
3. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
P1E: 6.64, PPT: 251, ADP: 2.68, DVQ: 6.89
Great back. Decent offense. Should perform even if Chiefs backslide, as expected.
4. Matt Forte, Bears
P1E: 6.54, PPT: 248, ADP: 4.94, DVQ: 6.99
Does everything, and Bears have too many weapons on outside to focus on stopping him.
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
P1E: 5.72, PPT: 232, ADP: 6.26, DVQ: 6.25
A year older, but O-line still stout, and Skittles still can bring Beast Mode.
6. Eddy Lacy, Packers
P1E: 5.62, PPT: 230, ADP: 7.47, DVQ: 6.27
Great back, great offense. If only he could get involved in passing game.
7. Doug Martin, Buccaneers
P1E: 4.78, PPT: 212, ADP: 12.38, DVQ: 5.76
Injuries and coaching derailed 2013. Expect bounce back from Martin and Bucs.
8. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
P1E: 3.76, PPT: 188, ADP: 18.15, DVQ: 4.95
Little worried about LeGarrette Blount vulturing TDs, but Bell is a good runner who also catches passes.
9. Arian Foster, Texans
P1E: 3.56, PPT: 183, ADP: 12.62, DVQ: 4.31
Should be healthier than he was last year, Texans should be better. If DVQ factored in risk factor, Foster would not be ranked this high.
10. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
P1E: 3.52, PPT: 182, ADP: 16.41, DVQ: 4.52
Good back, good offense. But Cowboys sometimes forget to call run plays.
11. Alfred Morris, Redskins
P1E: 3.48, PPT: 181, ADP: 22.35, DVQ: 4.88
New coach, healthy Robert Griffin III should help him get close to rookie numbers from 2012.
12. Zac Stacy, Rams
P1E: 3.44, PPT: 180, ADP: 18.00, DVQ: 4.53
He’s a beast who could outperform this spot in rankings. But he plays for Rams, in division loaded with great defenses.
13. Frank Gore, 49ers
P1E: 3.37, PPT: 178, ADP: 37.29, DVQ: 5.81
Hasn’t faded yet. And his backups keep getting hurt.
14. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
P1E: 3.29, PPT: 176, ADP:41.12, DVQ: 5.97
Our favorite breakout RB behind Stacy and Bell. Should get plenty of touches.
15(t). Montee Ball, Broncos
P1E: 3.26, PPT: 175, ADP: 23.41, DVQ: 4.64
Appendectomy is worrisome. Plus, we don’t expect him to carry as much of the load as Knowshon Moreno did last year. But he can play, and he is on the most dynamic offense.
15(t). Giovani Bernard, Bengals
P1E: 3.26, PPT: 175, ADP: 26.59, DVQ: 4.85
Not likely to get goal-line carries, but he is too talented to pass up.
17. Reggie Bush, Lions
P1E: 3.00, PPT: 168, ADP: 31.06, DVQ: 4.76
Still a great playmaker on a team that scores a lot of points.
18. Ben Tate, Browns
P1E: 2.89, PPT: 165, ADP: 37.91, DVQ: 5.03
Gets chance to be workhorse for Browns. But injury history is a concern.
19. C.J. Spiller, Bills
P1E: 2.72, PPT: 160, ADP: 37.76, DVQ: 4.72
Would be higher based on talent alone, but he shares backfield with Fred Jackson and he plays for Bills.
20. Trent Richardson, Colts
P1E: 2.62, PPT: 157, ADP: 49.79, DVQ: 5.29
They seem dedicated to giving him carries. Will produce some numbers based on opportunities, even if he doesn’t wow you while doing so.
21. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
P1E: 2.32, PPT: 148, ADP: 40.38, DVQ: 4.18
Every time we’ve jumped on Mathews bandwagon, he has let us down. If he proves last season wasn’t a fluke, maybe next year we’ll rank him higher.
22. Joique Bell, Lions
P1E: 2.30, PPT: 147, ADP: 66.65, DVQ: 5.63
Gets the short-yardage TDs. Oh, and he’s a pretty good runner, too.
23. Ray Rice, Ravens
P1E: 2.14, PPT: 142, ADP: 55.62, DVQ: 4.64
Suspended two games, and he was a huge disappointment last year. Did we mention Baltimore, like Dallas, sometimes forgets to run the ball?
24. Chris Johnson, Jets
P1E: 2.08, PPT: 140, ADP: 48.35, DVQ: 4.13
Away from a decaying O-line in Tennessee, CJ2K should fare better behind strong Jets O-line. Would be higher if he didn’t have backfield competition.
25. Rashad Jennings, Giants
P1E: 2.02, PPT: 138, ADP: 56.59, DVQ: 4.43
Not convinced he will be bell-cow back. Expecting Andre Williams to get a fair share.
26. Toby Gerhart, Jaguars
P1E: 1.94, PPT: 135, ADP: 62.56, DVQ: 4.54
Gets his chance at feature role. But he already is battling a hip flexor, he never has had to carry load for team, and he plays on bad Jaguars teams. His ADP is rising past his value point.
27. Steven Jackson, Falcons
P1E: 1.82, PPT: 131, ADP: 62.56, DVQ: 4.27
Falcons should be improved, but can’t rank him higher than this based on injuries and age (31).
28. Bishop Sankey, Titans
P1E: 1.61, PPT: 123, ADP: 59.97, DVQ: 3.66
Breakout Rookie Candidate No. 1. Titans addressed O-line problems, but haven‘t seen them in action in new scheme. Do they have enough of a passing game to divert defensive attention? Will Shonn Greene steal his TDs? Likely to get more opportunities than other rookies, but his upside is more limited.
29. Darren Sproles, Eagles
P1E: 1.61, PPT: 123, ADP: 91.00, DVQ: 5.07
Goes from Saints offense, which he fit perfectly, to Eagles offense, which he should fit perfectly.
30. Danny Woodhead, Chargers
P1E: 1.53, PPT: 120, ADP: 100.45, DVQ: 5.27
Whenever he is on field, he makes plays.
31. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
P1E: 1.43, PPT: 116, ADP: 106.26, DVQ: 5.20
Every time the Madman picks him, we let out disappointed sigh. It’s like a surrender pick: I can’t find anybody I actually like, so I guess I will take DeAngelo.
32. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
P1E: 1.40, PPT: 115, ADP: 68.85, DVQ: 3.53
Tip: Don’t draft any of the Patriots RBs unless they slip well past their ADP. There’s too many who could get a decent share of carries.
33. Pierre Thomas, Saints
P1E: 1.36, PPT: 113, ADP: 82.94, DVQ: 3.95
Likely to see the most playing time in a crowded backfield. Uninspiring choice.
34(t). Shane Vereen, Patriots
P1E: 1.24, PPT: 108, ADP: 64.88, DVQ: 2.98
See: No. 32, Stevan Ridley.
34(t). Khiry Robinson, Saints
P1E: 1.24, PPT: 108, ADP: 103.06, DVQ: 4.38
More inspiring than Pierre Thomas. And more upside as well.
36. Fred Jackson, Bills
P1E: 1.22, PPT: 107, ADP: 96.06, DVQ: 4.02
Most fantasy owners just want to see Jackson go away, because he stunts Spiller’s value. It’s nothing personal, Fred.
37. Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins
P1E: 1.22, PPT: 107, ADP: 87.18, DVQ: 3.76
Had minor knee surgery recently. Wasn’t high on him beforehand. Hasn’t shown he can be productive on offense not run by Peyton Manning. Do Dolphins have any O-linemen left?
38. Chris Ivory, Jets
P1E: 1.19, 106, PPT: 100.53, ADP: DVQ: 4.12
Likely to get goal-line carries. If he can stay healthy, he is good enough to force timeshare.
39. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
P1E: 1.13, PPT: 103, ADP: 102.09, DVQ: 3.94
Because we don’t like Moreno, not because we are high on Miller.
40. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
P1E: 1.11, PPT: 102, ADP: 108.56, DVQ: 4.10
Figure he will get starting nod while Rice is suspended. At this point, we think he is the better of the two Ravens runners anyway.
41. Mark Ingram, Saints
P1E: 1.04, PPT: 99, ADP: 130.94, DVQ: 4.67
If Pierre Thomas didn’t bore you enough …
42(t). Jeremy Hill, Bengals
P1E: 1.02, PPT: 98, ADP: 126.74, DVQ: 4.42
Breakout Rookie Candidate No. 2. Move over BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Hill should be new bruiser back in Cincinnati. And if Bernard, a shifty back of slight build, gets nicked up, then a big season could be in store.
42(t). Roy Helu, Redskins
P1E: 1.02, PPT: 98, ADP: 164.15, DVQ: 5.89
Change-of-pace for Alfred Morris on what should be improved Redskins offense.
44. Maurice Jones-Drew, Raiders
P1E: 0.98, PPT: 96, ADP: 79.38, DVQ: 2.75
Likely to get largest share in crowded Oakland backfield. But it’s the Raiders, so expectations are tempered.
45. Devonta Freeman, Falcons
P1E: 0.90, PPT: 92, ADP: 179.71, DVQ: 5.79
Breakout Rookie Candidate No. 3. If Steven Jackson can’t stay on the field, we could see a lot of Freeman.
46 (t). Andre Williams, Giants
P1E: 0.88, PPT: 91, ADP: 178.15, DVQ: 5.60
Breakout Rookie Candidate No. 4. Not sold Rashad Jennings will be primary feature back. We expect to see plenty of burly Williams.
46(t). Mike Tolbert, Panthers
P1E: 0.88, PPT: 91, ADP: 215.18, DVQ: 7.10
Limited touches, but the most productive of an expensive Carolina backfield when he does the get ball.
48. Christine Michael, Seahawks
P1E: 0.73, PPT: 83, ADP: 135.88, DVQ: 3.42
Marshawn Lynch is getting older. Don’t be surprised if he yields more carries than in seasons past, in which case Michael most likely is the beneficiary.
49. Terrance West, Browns
P1E: 0.71, PPT: 82, ADP: 134.79, DVQ: 3.31
Breakout Rookie Candidate No. 5. In line to back up oft-injured starter Ben Tate.
50. Tre Mason, Rams
P1E: 0.68, PPT: 80, ADP: 117.38, DVQ: 2.73
Breakout Rookie Candidate No. 6. Don’t buy into committee talk by coaches: Zac Stacy should get lion’s share of workload. But Mason should earn primary backup role. Plus, Stacy had trouble staying on the field last season.