If the Red Sox needed leverage in dealing Jon Lester, it appears they have it.
They are selling him as the piece that very well could determine the balance of power in the NL Central – and perhaps in the whole league.
The Cardinals, Brewers and Pirates – bunched within two games of each other atop the NL Central – were all in play for Lester, as were the Dodgers, whose bad blood with the Cardinals that stretches from last year’s NLCS to a recent hit-by-pitch-a-thon series very well could have those two organizations thinking about playing keep-away from the other.
Those are not the only four teams in on Lester, who was scratched from his scheduled start Wednesday against the Blue Jays. The Mariners, for example, are enticed by the Tacoma native. However, that a division and league title could pivot on Lester makes a sale to the NL seem more likely, especially because those teams could bid against one another to give Boston what is necessary to surrender its ace.
The Dodgers have arguably the best starter on the planet (Clayton Kershaw), an excellent No. 2 in Zack Greinke and (my opinion here) an overrated No. 3 in Hyun-jin Ryu. The problem is they have a physically fragile No. 4 in Josh Beckett (who recently came off the DL with a hip impingement), a fading No. 5 in Dan Haren (0-4, 9.47 ERA this month) and little depth behind them.
Outside executives describe the Dodgers as arguably the most aggressive team in trying to land a big-time starter. And, obviously, a rotation that begins Kershaw, Lester, Greinke would be a powerhouse from now into October.
However, the Dodgers have been reluctant to give up any of their three elite prospects – lefty prodigy Julio Urias (he doesn’t turn 18 until next month), shortstop Corey Seagar or center fielder Joc Pederson. And it is difficult to see how they get Lester – or Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels – without at least one being the centerpiece of a package.
The Red Sox – more than any other organization – know the Dodgers’ do-anything fervor to win a championship because it was Los Angeles that took the huge contracts of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Beckett off Boston’s hands.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have arguably the deepest system in the sport. No organization wants to expend top prospects for a rental like Lester, who is a free agent after this season. But St. Louis has this one potential advantage: Those who go play there, even for a little while, tend to fall in love with being a Cardinal and playing in a baseball-first town with adoring fans and minimal media. Think players such as Mark McGwire and Matt Holliday, both of whom were obtained in late July and re-enlisted for the long term.
The Red Sox, according to rival executives, are at least considering a have-their-cake-and-eat-it-too maneuver in which they trade Lester to get big-time prospects and then re-sign the lefty as a free agent after the season. Lester has made it clear – even offering a hometown discount early in negotiations – his preference is to remain with the Red Sox, even if traded before the deadline. However, the gamble Boston would run is Lester learns there is someplace else he and his family would enjoy.
St. Louis has Adam Wainwright leading the rotation and steady Lance Lynn as a solid No. 3-4 piece. But they have uncertainty elsewhere. Michael Wacha, a 2013 revelation, has been out with a stress reaction to the scapula bone in his right shoulder. The best-case scenario is he is back in full in September. But that is a big if.
Shelby Miller (7-8, 4.20) has taken a step (or two) back from last year. Carlos Martinez has been up and down as a starter since coming out of the pen and never has thrown more than 104 1/3 innings in the pros.
Uniting Lester with Wainwright would give the Cards two of the elite workhorses in the game, a lefty and a righty who have proven their October mettle, a tandem that makes it easier for Wacha to transition back and potentially give the Cards a Big Three in the postseason.
Plus, the Cards could do a pitcher/outfielder combo (even if they took top outfield prospect Oscar Tavares off the table) that could be enticing. Triple-A outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuk might be major league ready. Martinez or Miller could provide a pitcher with upside. Heck, the Red Sox might even want to gamble that Allen Craig’s down 2014 is not indicative who he really is as a hitter, especially because he is signed to a reasonable deal through 2018.
In addition, the Cardinals just received a competitive balance pick in next June’s draft — an additional pick after the first round — and such selections can be traded.
The Pirates are with the Cardinals in the conversation for deepest farm system and – after making the playoffs for the first time in two decades last year – want more this season. Pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Josh Bell are said to be alluring to the Red Sox.
The Brewers, based on their go-for-it trade-history landing CC Sabathia and Greinke and the aggressive bent of owner Mark Attanasio, are seen as the wild card in this hunt, and could offer starter Jimmy Nelson as the main piece.