We are at a familiar point in the offseason for the big Scott Boras free agent — executives are saying they are hearing nothing significant is available for Max Scherzer, while Boras is insisting talent will prevail and his client will be paid commensurate to his skills.
By the way, history in these matters almost always favors Boras. Last year, for example, I had officials everywhere questioning whether Jacoby Ellsbury even would break $100 million, and the Yankees paid the Boras client $153 million.
The refrain is common now. Teams are more worried than ever about giving mega-deals to pitchers who have turned 30. The Yankees, for example, essentially have created a policy in which they are not going to give out a nine-figure contract to a pitcher after doling them out to CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, who are both physical uncertainties for next year.
Boras, though, is selling Scherzer as a young 30. He uses the term “pitching odometer” and says Scherzer has a lot less on his than you would think and is a good long-term bet because of that.
Scherzer completed his age-29 season with 1,239¹/₃ innings. He is the fourth Cy Young winner since the turn of the century to reach free agency. Here are how many innings the other three had: Sabathia (2,127), Zack Greinke (1,669.2) and Barry Zito (1,627).
The suggestion is that without all the wear and tear on his arm, Scherzer is more likely to sustain his health and stuff into his 30s than, say, Sabathia or Zito. Boras also noted his client has thrown significantly fewer pitches (20,954) than the other two major free-agent starters: Jon Lester (26,231) and James Shields (29,461).
Of course, Scherzer is looking for more years and more dollars than that duo. He turned down a six-year, $144 million overture from the Tigers last spring, so the industry belief is he has to significantly top that to justify the gamble.
Boras said he expects Scherzer’s market to clarify once “all the trade doors are exhausted.” In other words, Boras is banking the price to trade for a starter will be so much in talent given up and dollars needed for a contract that teams will turn to the best free-agent starter available at that time because he costs only money (and a compensation draft pick).
Nevertheless, the trade market might actually open avenues for Scherzer.
The Nationals are said to be seriously considering trades for Jordan Zimmermann, with one AL executive saying, “They seem very motivated to deal him.”
Washington has five key players entering their walk year — Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Denard Span, Ian Desmond and Tyler Clippard. The Nationals are prioritizing winning now, but they do not want to risk having all of those players leave and receiving nothing in return, and their attempts to sign Zimmermann long term have fallen flat.
So it is possible they could trade Zimmermann for the second baseman they crave, plus prospects, and sign Scherzer, who was drafted by their current general manager, Mike Rizzo, when Rizzo ran Arizona’s draft.
Executives say the Cubs are a natural fit for Zimmermann, especially if they think they can extend him. But an AL official who is convinced the Nationals are trading Zimmermann said, “I don’t think they want to tie up big payroll with a starter like Scherzer. I think they like [their big pitching prospects Lucas] Giolito and [A.J.] Cole and just wait for them.”
The Tigers also could trade David Price — like Zimmermann, a year from free agency — and try to bring back Scherzer. Nevertheless, at the General Managers’ meetings, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told me Price was obtained with an eye on losing Scherzer, and he was doubtful the team could re-sign Scherzer now that all teams could bid on the right-hander.
He essentially repeated that sentiment to MLB Radio on Friday.
So the game is on again — the industry is doubting Boras, and the agent is essentially saying, “Just wait.”