The “Islamic State” is on the march. To stop it, American bombs are welcome, but what’s needed most is US leadership.
Under self-appointed Caliph Abubakar al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and Daesh, has already committed every violation of human rights imaginable.
It started with mass murder of young Shiites in and around Mosul before proceeding to summary executions of Sunni tribal chiefs. It then gave almost half a million Christians the choice of conversion to Islam or death.
This week, the caliph sent his “Islam or death!” troops to terrorize Zoroastrian communities near the Syrian border.
On Thursday, his forces entered Qaraqosh (Black Eagle), the largest Christian town in the Middle East, forcing most of the 50,000 residents to flee to the Kurdish region.
Tens of thousands of refugees are besieged in remote mountains.
The Obama administration is contemplating airstrikes against ISIS. Yet what is most needed, even more than American muscle, is serious American diplomacy.
The caliph’s forces are now present in a vast area, spanning some 1,200 miles across Syria and Iraq, inhabited by countless communities who are either not Muslim or whose Islam lacks the caliph’s stamp of approval.
Unless checked soon, “Islam or death” will move further afield, sending ripples of instability in the heart of the Middle East.
The caliph has already turned almost a million people into refugees.
If he is allowed to push on, the region could see 2 million more refugees, when it already can’t absorb the 3 million displaced by the Syrian conflict.
The Islamic State’s rapid advance is due to at least two factors: It operates in sparsely populated areas on the edges of the great Arabian Desert. And the Iraqi army has refused to stand and fight even where it enjoyed theoretical superiority.
The region’s long history is full of similar rapid advances by small but determined forces against adversaries who wouldn’t fight.
In 630 BC, the Median king Cyaxares captured the same area in weeks, largely because his Assyrian foes declined to engage. In 1260 AD, the Mongols seized this territory in a month.
Thus, the caliph’s blitzkrieg advance could be undone equally rapidly — if anyone will actually fight this army of darkness.
Plenty of people in Iraq could make a stand against the Islamic State — but haven’t.
Kurdish chief Massoud Barzani assumed that Daesh would push toward Baghdad, allowing his Peshmergas (irregular fighters) to seize disputed territories in Kirkuk.
This week, however, the caliph’s army defeated some Kurdish forces as it headed toward Erbil, Barzani’s capital, vowing to “wipe out the heathen Kurds.”
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also at first quietly hoped the caliph’s shenanigans would force Iraqi Shiites to rally under his banner, giving him a third term.
Bad calculation: Several Iraqi leaders tell me that Maliki’s departure is now a condition for the creation of a new government.
Iraqi Sunni Arab leaders also tried to use Daesh to advertise their grievances against Maliki. They’re starting to realize that this genie will be hard to get back into its bottle once Maliki is ousted.
And analysts in the region assume Daesh was initially funded and armed by oil-rich Sunni Arab states in response to Iran’s supply of arms and aid to Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Yet the Sunni states’ attitude is also changing as they realize that Daesh is in business for itself.
Senior Iranian leaders, including ex-President Hashemi Rafsanjani (believed to be the real power behind the current president), have also called for cooperation with Sunni states to stop Daesh.
If joined with Kurdish forces, volunteer Shiite groups, Sunni tribes and citizens’ defense squads in the affected provinces, the authorities in Baghdad have enough strength to flush Daesh out within weeks.
What’s needed is a coordinating power that all those elements might accept, even if reluctantly.
The only power capable of assuming that role is the United States — which still enjoys a reservoir of goodwill with all Iraqi communities. Indeed, even Tehran is now obliquely calling on the United States to assume an active role.
No one is asking for American “boots on the ground,” or even massive air strikes or drone attacks.
Instead, Iraqi leaders across the spectrum tell me they want several other things from Washington:
- Send a strong message of support for Iraq’s democratic process by appointing a senior political/military coordinator for the duration of the current crisis.
- Help persuade the factions to speed up the formation of a government, especially now that even Iran has indicated readiness to accept a compromise.
- The United States still has the clout to persuade Arab Sunni allies to end all aid to Daesh in exchange for a US commitment to help reconciliation in Iraq. America is also the only power that can persuade the Kurds to put plans for an independence referendum on hold until Daesh is destroyed.
- Supply urgently-needed weapons to fight Daesh, which captured large quantities of modern US-made arms in Mosul.
Daesh will be defeated eventually — but that defeat can come faster and at lower cost if Washington offers political leadership.