Jeff Samardzija threw 12 pitches Wednesday to Derek Jeter. All were fastballs of at least 93 mph. The Cubs righty does rely on his heater. But the lack of diversity was not about his strength.
More and more, the opposition has homed in on what is now Jeter’s weakness — if you have a hard-throwing righty, Jeter has turned into something resembling a Mets pitcher trying to hit.
Jeter’s overall results against righties are not very good (all stats going into Thursday night). He was hitting just .237 off righties and his .278 slugging percentage was seventh-worst in the majors (minimum 100 at-bats off righties). Yankee fans might want to gulp here: Jacoby Ellsbury was ninth (.286).
But the bigger problem has been when you get more granular. Baseball Info Solutions broke down Jeter’s at-bats against pitchers such as Samardzija, whose average fastball is at least 93 mph. The results: Jeter has two hits (including one off Samardzija) in 24 at-bats — both are singles — plus two walks. He is hitting .083 in those situations with a .154 on-base percentage. He is hitless in 16 plate appearances against righties who average 94 mph or more and, just for comparison, he is at .186 (without an extra-base hit) in 46 plate appearances against righties who average 92 or more.
It is possible this is a small sample size — though more than 15 percent of his plate appearances are against righties averaging 93-plus and more than 27 percent are against righties averaging 92-plus.
We can also say Jeter is still trying to find his timing after a lost 2013. In his last healthy season, 2012, Jeter hit a respectable .279 in 143 plate appearances against pitchers who average at least 93 mph with a .340 on-base percentage, but just a .333 slugging percentage.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi has not given up on his shortstop. He had the perfect day-game-after-night-game excuse to not start Jeter vs. Samardzija, yet went with Jeter anyway.
But scouts have noticed this trouble area. Jeter generally encounters a large amount of fastballs, but this year it is 68.4 percent of the pitches seen, which is the third-highest among qualifiers. Plus, there are more hard throwers — particularly in late-game bullpens — than ever, so you can expect Jeter to be fed a large diet of power righties. We will learn if this is small sample/getting timing back, or whether — a month shy of 40 — Jeter simply cannot catch up consistently enough with power righties.
If the latter is the case, what can the Yankees do?
This is Jeter’s final season, and it could be tough to limit his playing time and/or begin pinch-hitting regularly for him late when someone such as the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez is summoned.
Or the Yankees could try to emulate a team such as the A’s, who use platoons in many positions to maximize outputs. The multi-positional skills of Yangervis Solarte and Kelly Johnson, the switch-hitting abilities of Solarte and Brian Roberts and the defensive acumen of Brendan Ryan gives Girardi the opportunity to get creative with infield alignments.
Jeter has essentially emulated a mid-lineup power hitter against lefties throughout his career. He is not that any longer (his power is pretty much gone), but he was hitting .321 with a .410 on-base percentage vs. southpaws. So he can start against all lefties and, perhaps, finesse-oriented righties.
Against hard-throwing righties, Girardi could actually start Solarte at short (1.001 OPS vs. righties) and defend late with Ryan. One scout said, “Solarte is not a high-end shortstop, but at this moment, he is no worse than Jeter.” Plus, Jeter is available to face a lefty as the game progresses.
There is a shot Girardi just gives Jeter his more frequent off days against hard-throwing righties, but changes little else, worried it could be more damaging to the clubhouse to disrespect Jeter. Or Jeter can show he still has magic about him and heat up with the weather.
But it is worth watching how this progresses. Because Jeter has shown a vulnerability, scouts have noticed and — while they might honor him in the pregame during this farewell tour — opponents will not be so kind during games.
Where has Cano’s power gone?
In their first foray to sign Robinson Cano, the Yankees noted similarities to David Wright — they actually had played the same 1,374 games and had comparable stats — and offered a deal similar to the eight-year, $138 million pact the Mets reached with their captain.
Cano, of course, was aiming higher, insisting on 10 years throughout the process. He got that and $240 million from the Mariners. And he also got more similarities to Wright — a tougher home park in which to hit for power and worse lineup protection. And, lo and behold, they both went into Thursday with two homers in 45 games.
Cano was hitting .326 and had reached base in 28 straight games, the longest active streak in the majors. But two homers (none in 65 at-bats at spacious Safeco Field) are equal to Ramiro Pena.
And three scouts contacted concurred what the problems are, with one saying: “I have seen him and I don’t think his actual power has gone anywhere. He still shows plenty of raw strength during batting practice, and I don’t have any questions as to if it’s still there. I think the park certainly has something to do with it. The differences between New York and Seattle are pretty obvious.
“I think the other issue is that he’s not getting much to hit, much less to drive. Clubs were clearly pitching around him in every meaningful situation, and he’s left with the choice of taking a ton of walks or expanding and trying to find some singles and doubles. I know there is a healthy debate as to the real value of ‘protection’ in a lineup, but it’s hard to deny that clubs are being careful with him. It’s not just behind him but in front of him as well. He’s not getting a ton of chances to hit with runners on when pitchers are forced to pitch him more aggressively.
“Why would you attack him? If it’s a tight game and he walks or singles, clubs aren’t going to worry that much about it as long as he’s out of the gaps and inside the fences.”
Not giving up on Moustakas
When someone hits great in spring training next year and I am tempted to put value in it, I hope I remember these two words: Mike Moustakas.
The Royals third baseman hit .429 in the Cactus League with 11 extra-base hits and 18 RBIs in 24 games, and once again there was belief — at age 25 — he was ready to be unshackled from an erratic, mostly unsuccessful first three seasons.
Instead, he was sent down Thursday with a .152 batting average and a .543 OPS. Kansas City GM Dayton Moore told me it was a combination of Danny Valencia (.308/.785) producing and Moustakas needing “a fresh start” he might get at Triple-A. He might be a change-of-scenery guy, and three teams already had contacted Kansas City about trying to obtain him.
But Moore said, “I believe in Mike Moustakas.”