They say only a fool is sure.
Well, here’s one fool’s take-it-to-the-bank predictions for Sunday’s Tony Awards.
Best Play: It’s a tight race between “Act One,” the Moss Hart bio, and “All the Way,” the LBJ bio. But Hart’s book has pride of place on most voters’ shelves, so that should tip it to “Act One.”
Best Musical: I’ve been predicting “Beautiful,” the Carole King musical, but there’s support for “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder” because it’s not a jukebox musical. I’ll stick with “Beautiful.” It’s got the road vote — and the female vote.
Best Book of a Musical: Doug McGrath’s book for “Beautiful” is underrated, but the sentiment here is for “Gentleman’s Guide.”
Leading Actor in a Play: It’s Bryan Cranston all the way, as LBJ.
Leading Actress in a Play: The favorite is Audra McDonald as Billie Holiday (“Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill”). But some think she has enough Tonys (five), so there could be an upset. If Tyne Daly wins (for “Mothers and Sons”), you read it here first.
Leading Actor in a Musical: Everybody loves Neil Patrick Harris in “Hedwig.”
Leading Actress in a Musical: Jessie Mueller, touching and understated in “Beautiful.”
Featured Actor in a Play: Reed Birney is terrifying as a cross-dressing homophobe in “Casa Valentina.”
Featured Actress in a Play: Mare Winningham exudes warmth and compassion as the wife of a cross-dresser in “Casa Valentina.”
Featured Actor in a Musical: Once they let James Monroe Iglehart out of that lamp in “Aladdin,” nobody else stood a chance.
Featured Actress in a Musical: Tough category, but I think Linda Emond will win for her dignified Fräulein Schneider in “Cabaret.”
Best Revival of a Play: Everybody likes “A Raisin in the Sun,” but with weekly grosses of $1 million, it hardly needs a Tony. Voters remember with affection “Twelfth Night.”
Best Revival of a Musical: The flashy “Hedwig and the Angry Inch,” which incidentally has the best score of the season.
Look for me at the Tonys. I’ll wave to you!