We might remember it as the last good time for the 2014 Mets or, possibly, the final occasion when they raised their level of expectation or deception, take your pick.
They had won four out of five in Philadelphia, climbing within one game of .500. They were 3¹/₂ games out of first, just one out of a wild card. The crowded playoff race combined with fan frustration moved me just two weeks ago to urge the organization to go for it, to act boldly to add pieces and try to rise above the mediocrity — try to be, in a way of thinking, the best of the ordinary.
But the Mets just might be among the worst of the worst, sinking to irrelevance yet again.
Since the last good time, the Mets are an MLB-worst 4-11. Those no-pulse Phillies actually are ahead of the last-place Mets in the NL East.
The second wild card seduces 6¹/₂ games away, but the worst record in the NL slaps with reality just 2¹/₂ games away. And, after leaving St. Louis, the Mets play four at Miami, two vs. Oakland (owners of the AL’s best record), and then head right back on the road for four at suddenly hot Pittsburgh and three at Atlanta.
That takes them to July 4 and — unless there is another U-turn toward success — even the second wild card could be a pipe dream by Independence Day.
Should that be the case, I will stick to my call to act boldly, but (forgive the flip-flopping) in the opposite direction. The Mets at that point will need to make Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee and Jonathon Niese available in trades. Daniel Murphy, too.
I know it feels like the endless rebuild. But the only way to escape the Groundhog Day of repeated failure is to find ways to add more talent — which means using the veteran starters to upgrade the positional talent base and, thus, gambling a young rotation built around Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Jacob deGrom and whatever veteran(s) remain will be good enough.
In this sport, you go fully for first place or the first draft pick — the middle is death. My colleague, Ken Davidoff, wrote recently the Astros’ willingness to embrace being horrible — trading away all usable veterans and getting first overall picks by finishing with the worst record — has them in a better spot moving forward than the Mets. The Marlins are there, too, for their willingness to quickly tear down a too-fast buildup when moving into a new stadium.
The Mets have not worried that total sell-offs would produce even fewer folks showing up at Citi in August and September, and were concerned fans would hate ownership even more. But all this has brought is a string of 70-something wins — the deadly middle.
A removal of veterans now would probably assure the Mets 60-something wins, access to elite amateur talent by getting a top-five pick and a guarantee they finish with one of the 10 worst records so their 2015 first-round pick is protected should they sign a free agent given a qualifying offer.
The trades, though, are key to escaping this rut. It is the area in which Sandy Alderson’s regime has done the best. Zack Wheeler, Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard might not have reached lofty potential yet, but their acquisitions for Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey were viewed as maximizing veterans. And that trio either fulfills most of its potential or the Mets’ near-future hopes are dimmed considerably.
The Mets also made a good trade last year by turning Marlon Byrd (a successful three-quarters-of-a-year reclamation project) into a useful late-inning reliever (Vic Black) and a second-base prospect, Dilson Herrera, who was promoted Wednesday to Double-A Binghamton.
The Mets should try to trade at least two of three among Colon, Gee (when healthy) and Niese, mainly for position players who will help no later than next year. The tightness of playoff races should aid the Mets. For example, you can make a case the four AL West competitors — the A’s, Angels, Rangers and Mariners — each could use a starter and, thus, could be played against one another.
Can Niese be dealt to the Angels, for example, to land C.J. Cron (blocked at first base by Albert Pujols) or second baseman Rougned Odor from the Rangers, who will have Jurickson Profar coming back next year to take the position? Can the Mets play the Orioles and Blue Jays off each other to find a landing place for a win-now veteran such as Colon, who might be 40, but as showed again Wednesday against the Cardinals, still can pitch at a high level?
Ownership is probably not opening the wallet too wide, so removing the future dollars of Colon and/or Niese to be able to buy better position players or acquire them in trades is vital.
Last week, when I asked about this kind of sell-off, Alderson said he did not believe the Mets’ poor trend line. But it has gotten much worse. He did say that “at some point [if poor play continues], you have a realization of the nexus of the calendar and the sense of the team, and you react accordingly.”
We are approaching the “react accordingly” portion of the program.