We will play this silly game now about whether Terry Collins will be fired, when we all know exactly what is going to happen.
We just don’t know the date.
Sandy Alderson gave his manager full support Tuesday before the beginning of a six-game homestand. So that meant Collins was not going to be axed on June 10, 2014. But if we are heading where it sure looks like we are heading — with yet another 70-something Mets wins and Citi Field emptier in the second half than the Rangers’ bandwagon — then really all we are talking about with Collins is an exact date:
The All-Star break? August? The last week of the season? Just after the schedule ends?
Even if you fall strongly in the “This is not Terry’s fault” brigade — and Alderson mostly absolved his manager Tuesday — understand Collins is not going to get a fifth shot in 2015 at getting this right. Even Collins acknowledged that, saying, “I am very aware of the dynamics of what is happening.”
Collins signed a two-year extension after last season, but for essentially one-year money — just more than $2 million total. Even Mets ownership will eat that in attempts to change the subject, to make it look as if the organization is proactively trying to fix what is wrong.
Collins is liked as a person, if not loved as a manager within the organization. That and the acknowledgment that this is a flawed roster will buy him more time. But this is Mike-Woodson-in-March-and-April stuff — we know the outcome, not the moment.
And, like the Knicks with Woodson, what is saving Collins in-season as much as anything is a lack of a ready replacement.
Bob Geren? The Mets’ current bench coach managed the A’s for three-plus seasons and never rose above .500, though Oakland was over .500 in each of the eight seasons before he arrived and have the best record in the majors in the three full seasons since his departure. Those three seasons are with Bob Melvin managing — yep, the Bob Melvin who finished as the runner-up to Collins for the Mets job.
We can play the Wally Backman game, but it is relatively clear now that short of ownership believing such a move would buy them some love with the fans, there is no front-office fervor to make Backman the successor to Collins.
Still, lack of obvious options, plus Alderson’s desire not to replace a manager during the season, should not comfort Collins much. Alderson already has played the obvious GM cards in crisis — firing a coach (Dave Hudgens) and demoting what was supposed to be a cornerstone piece (Travis d’Arnaud). Not much remains in the standard GM bag of tricks to try to defibrillate this patient or, at least, redirect the narrative.
Collins is safe today because Alderson is willing to cast a 4-7 road trip this way: 1) It began 4-1 and contention was in the air just a week ago. 2) The Mets were in every game and but for inexperienced bullpen, ineffective clutch hitting and inane baserunning would have done much better. 3) He believes the team is still giving max attention and effort, which Alderson considers the main responsibility of a manager. 4) Alderson is enough of a realist to appreciate the talent level and, when it comes to talent, the Mets have nice guys.
The first baseman, Lucas Duda, plays worse the quicker the game goes. The second baseman, Daniel Murphy, still plays so deep to mitigate problematic range that every double play becomes an adventure. The shortstop, Ruben Tejada, has temporary moments where he is in favor (like now) surrounded by large swaths when you wonder how he is in the majors. The third baseman, David Wright, is wilting again under the strain of carrying a team.
Chris Young has backup skills, but certainly will not hit if he is a part-time player. Curtis Granderson is who we thought he was — a supporting actor asked to be more. The best starter, Matt Harvey, is out for the year — no matter how much he pushes for that not to be true. The most dependable starter, Dillon Gee, remains out for the foreseeable future. The growing pains persist for Zack Wheeler and the newly formed back of the bullpen of Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia and Vic Black.
It is sports-talk radio psychosis to believe a manager fixes all of that. Nevertheless, Collins figures out how to turn that group into at least a contender for the second wild card or he is a sacrificial lamb with an execution date to be named later — maybe sooner than later.
“Twenty years ago, I would have been wound up tight about this,” Collins said. “But the most fun in my career has been managing this team. I tell the coaches every day, ‘Don’t tell me who we don’t have. Our job is to make these players better.’”
But even Collins offered an “or else” at that point, which translates this way: Tick, tock.