Sure, the NFL has become a pass-first league. And yes, that reality is reflected in fantasy scoring.
But before you go out and draft a quarterback and a bunch of wide receivers early, you should realize: It has affected nearly all QBs, making the pool of worthwhile fantasy scorers much deeper at that position. And though the top tier of WRs has grown compared to top WRs of just a few years back, the bigger change has been the depth at that position from a fantasy perspective as well.
Quick refresher: The DVQ (Draft Value Quotient) is a rating based on projected points and ADP (average draft position). P1E (Pick-1 Equation) applies the DVQ as if each player was the No. 1 overall pick, thus generating a positional ranking without regard to their average draft position.
Here is the deluxe edition of the Insanity Insider wide receiver rankings with updated DVQs (listed in order of P1E):
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
P1E: 5.03, PPT: 232, ADP: 5.94, DVQ: 5.50
Even if Josh Gordon were well-behaved, Megatron still would take top spot.
2. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
P1E: 4.16, PPT: 211, ADP: 12.23, DVQ: 5.05
Best WR on best offense. Likely to see slightly more targets with loss of Eric Decker.
3. A.J. Green, Bengals
P1E: 3.78, PPT: 201, ADP: 16.56, DVQ: 4.92
Imagine if he had a QB better than Andy Dalton, who is slightly above average, at best.
4. Julio Jones, Falcons
P1E: 3.74, PPT: 200, ADP: 21.65, DVQ: 5.27
Should rebound strong from injury season and be catalyst of a Falcons turnaround.
5. Brandon Marshall, Bears
P1E: 3.67, PPT: 198, ADP: 20.53, DVQ: 5.08
As much as the Madman likes Marshall, wouldn’t be surprised if he gets outscored by teammate Alshon Jeffery.
P1E: 3.67, PPT: 198, ADP: 17.69, DVQ: 4.81
Long-term health of QB Tony Romo is a concern. But considering Cowboys, who have porous defense, likely will engage in weekly shootouts, Bryant stands to score huge.
7. Alshon Jeffery, Bears
P1E: 3.63, PPT: 197, ADP: 27.03, DVQ: 5.54
Normally lasts until early third round. Fantastic bargain.
8. Antonio Brown, Steelers
P1E: 3.13, PPT: 183, ADP: 29.29, DVQ: 4.94
Another who could carry WR1 slot, and normally can be had in third round.
9. Randall Cobb, Packers
P1E: 3.06, PPT: 181, ADP: 32.35, DVQ: 5.05
Big-play ability gives him slight edge over teammate Jordy Nelson on highly productive Packers passing game.
10. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers
P1E: 2.96, PPT: 178, ADP: 36.97, DVQ: 5.20
We expect much improvement out of the Bucs, thanks in part to new QB Josh McCown. V-Jax is first in line to benefit.
11. Jordy Nelson, Packers
P1E: 2.93, PPT: 177, ADP: 25.82, DVQ: 4.39
QB Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target. If for some reason you still are playing in outdated PPR (points per reception) format, his value rises above teammate Randall Cobb.
12. Andre Johnson, Texans
P1E: 2.39, PPT: 160, ADP: 35.74, DVQ: 4.13
Not so scared about QB change from Matt Schaub to Ryan Fitzpatrick. If RB Arian Foster stays healthy, it certainly helps loosen defenses Johnson will face.
13. Keenan Allen, Chargers
P1E: 2.25, PPT: 155, ADP: 42.62, DVQ: 4.25
Love what we saw last year in his rookie season. With oft-injured Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal as other WR options, no reason to think he can’t do it again.
14. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
P1E: 2.10, PPT: 150, ADP: 54.91, DVQ: 4.65
When he is on the field, he is Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target. Health is only concern.
15. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
P1E: 2.08, PPT: 149, ADP: 40.56, DVQ: 3.82
Still one of the best WRs in the game, even if stats don’t show it. Improved running game should help.
16. Wes Welker, Broncos
P1E: 2.08, PPT: 149, ADP: 48.74, DVQ: 4.25
Reliable target on high-scoring offense.
17. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
P1E: 1.97, PPT: 145, ADP: 59.03, DVQ: 4.56
Don’t be surprised if he has breakout season. But even if he just plays to projections, nice option at WR2.
18. Pierre Garcon, Redskins
P1E: 1.89, PPT: 142, ADP: 42.82, DVQ: 3.58
Past health problems, added weapons (WR DeSean Jackson, healthy TE Jordan Reed) could cut into targets.
19. Victor Cruz, Giants
P1E: 1.89, PPT: 142, ADP: 44.26, DVQ: 3.65
Feel like Giants offense will find its rhythm eventually, but preseason struggles are worrisome.
20. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
P1E: 1.81, PPT: 139, ADP: 62.41, DVQ: 4.36
Talk from camp is positive. Vikings offense can’t be as bad as it was last season, right?
21. DeSean Jackson, Redskins
P1E: 1.78, PPT: 138, ADP: 42.79, DVQ: 3.38
Expect some big plays and inconsistency.
22. Roddy White, Falcons
P1E: 1.76, PPT: 137, ADP: 50.00, DVQ: 3.65
Retirement of TE Tony Gonzalez stands to benefit White, and third Falcons WR Harry Douglas, the most.
23. Michael Floyd, Cardinals
P1E: 1.73, PPT: 136, ADP: 71.65, DVQ: 4.63
Madman expects a nice step forward by Floyd and Cardinals offense this season.
24. Percy Harvin, Seahawks
P1E: 1.70, PPT: 135, ADP: 52.41, DVQ: 3.65
Harvin is hard to gauge without truly seeing how Seahawks will use him when he is fully healthy.
25. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
P1E: 1.65, PPT: 133, ADP: 70.18, DVQ: 4.36
Expected to absorb targets DeSean Jackson got last season.
26. Terrance Williams, Cowboys
P1E: 1.58, PPT: 130, ADP: 92.76, DVQ: 5.27
Often overlooked, Williams is a great value at his average draft spot.
27. Eric Decker, Jets
P1E: 1.44, PPT: 124, ADP: 87.15, DVQ: 4.53
Jets may not light up the scoreboard, but offense will be improved from last season, and Decker will be a benefactor.
28. Mike Wallace, Dolphins
P1E: 1.44, PPT: 124, ADP: 82.82, DVQ: 4.34
Expecting revamped Dolphins O-line to be at least marginally improved, which will allow deep passes more often, with most of those likely headed Wallace’s way.
29. Torrey Smith, Ravens
P1E: 1.37, PPT: 121, ADP: 66.06, DVQ: 3.45
Showed some consistency last season. Addition of Steve Smith and a healthy TE in Dennis Pitta could cut into production.
30. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos
P1E: 1.35, PPT: 120, ADP: 79.29, DVQ: 3.92
Assuming he can catch up to Broncos’ offensive scheme, stands to be a steal this late.
31. Reggie Wayne, Colts
P1E: 1.30, PPT: 118, ADP: 74.73, DVQ: 3.61
Always concerned about older players coming off injury, but Wayne has given us no reason to doubt him.
32. Sammy Watkins, Bills
P1E: 1.24, PPT: 115, ADP: 74.71, DVQ: 3.42
If Watkins were on a team with a legitimate QB, he would skyrocket up our boards. Considering he could catch a ball if I threw it from here, Madman would not be surprised if he eclipsed these projections.
33. Golden Tate, Lions
P1E: 1.24, PPT: 115, ADP: 85.88, DVQ: 3.85
Seahawks never passed enough to know how good Tate could be. We’re about to find out.
34. Julian Edelman, Patriots
P1E: 1.24, PPT: 115, ADP: 68.79, DVQ: 3.21
With healthy WR Danny Amendola, healthy TE Rob Gronkowski (for now) and running game with wealth of backs, we worry Edelman more likely to fall short of these projections than exceed them.
35. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
P1E: 1.17, PPT: 112, ADP: 114.06, DVQ: 4.77
Often forgotten in drafts. He can be a bargain, as long as you’re not relying on him as every-week starter.
36. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers
P1E: 1.17, PPT: 112, ADP: 169.35, DVQ: 7.40
His draft spot is soaring upward. Only legitimate WR option for Panthers.
37. Danny Amendola, Patriots
P1E: 1.11, PPT: 109, ADP: 111.82, DVQ: 4.43
If he could stay healthy, he would be great in Pats offense. Woe the “if.”
38. Marques Colston, Saints
P1E: 1.09, PPT: 108, ADP: 79.97, DVQ: 3.19
So many options for QB Drew Brees to target. Colston will post two TDs one game, then not score again for weeks.
39. Hakeem Nicks, Colts
P1E: 1.03, PPT: 105, ADP: 111.94, DVQ: 4.12
Sure, he didn’t score a TD all of last season, but considering his ability to make the high catch, we think the Colts will find a way to use this big-handed beast.
40. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
P1E: 1.01, PPT: 104, ADP: 107.06, DVQ: 3.86
One of those picks about which we say, “Well, there’s no other great options here …”
41. Cecil Shorts III, Jaguars
P1E: 0.99, PPT: 103, ADP: 99.12, DVQ: 3.52
The Jaguars have to throw to someone.
42. Rueben Randle, Giants
P1E: 0.99, PPT: 103, ADP: 142.29, DVQ: 5.11
Nice value this late. Victor Cruz can’t catch every pass, and rookie Odell Beckham Jr. can’t get on the field.
43. Steve Smith, Ravens
P1E: 0.95, PPT: 101, ADP:123.44, DVQ: 4.21
Gives QB Joe Flacco a reliable option, particularly on third down. But Smith’s big-play days appear behind him.
44. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
P1E: 0.94, PPT: 100, ADP: 191.74, DVQ: 6.89
Easily could remain best of Seattle’s WR options, if Harvin runs into more injury problems. Great value.
45. Greg Jennings, Vikings
P1E: 0.94, PPT: 100, ADP: 129.06, DVQ: 4.33
One those guys for whom we always seem to be able to find a better option at his projected draft position.
46. Kendall Wright, Titans
P1E: 0.92, PPT: 99, ADP: 85.00, DVQ: 2.83
Despite a higher-than-deserved ADP, he sometimes falls significantly, at which point he becomes a solid pick.
47. Anquan Boldin, 49ers
P1E: 0.88, PPT: 97, ADP: 98.47, DVQ: 3.10
Addition of third WR Steve Johnson and a healthy Michael Crabtree could cut into Boldin’s targets.
48. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
P1E: 0.88, PPT: 97, ADP:210.65, DVQ: 7.30
Undrafted more often than drafted. If you’re looking for a late sleeper, look no further. Has been QB Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target, even after last season’s addition of Mike Wallace.
49. Brandin Cooks, Saints
P1E: 0.86, PPT: 96, ADP: 127.32, DVQ: 3.93
Lot of options on Saints offense. Cooks could become a rookie phenom, but others fantasy owners have the same feeling, pushing his draft position beyond point of great value.
50. Justin Hunter, Titans
P1E: 0.84, PPT: 95, ADP: 142.71, DVQ: 4.36
Like Hunter as a breakout candidate. If you’re loaded at WR, he is great option to stash on bench.
Wild card: Josh Gordon, Browns
No word yet on Gordon’s appeal of a season-long suspension. Speculation has been: The longer the wait goes, the better for Gordon and fantasy owners. If suspension is completely vacated (unlikely), he would catapult into slot just behind Calvin Johnson. If ban is reduced to, say, half a season, you’re looking for him after you nab your primary starters. The Madman likes him as a fourth WR in that scenario, but chances are, if that occurs, we would miss out, because someone will grab him earlier than they should.