ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Numbers can be used to support most theories. Two parties can look at the same math and each can come away with ways to make the digits support their respective points.
However, when it comes to the ugly numbers staring the Yankees in the face, there is no way to put a positive spin on them.
Though they talk the good talk about having enough time to catch the Orioles in the AL East, the numbers paint a remarkably different picture.
When the Yankees, who have lost four straight, open a three-game series Friday night against the Rays at Tropicana Field, their only chance of playing in October is through the back-door entrance of the second wild card. And that could be a lost cause soon due to an Ambien-like lineup and a suddenly leaky bullpen.
“It’s crunch time right now. I am not the first guy to say it, we need to win series,’’ David Robertson said. “We are very capable of winning seven of eight, and we have to make it happen. It’s time to start winning.’’
Robertson was talking about being a season-high eight games back of the first-place Orioles, but he could have been describing the wild-card race because the O’s all but buried the Yankees by winning two games this week in Baltimore — games in which the Yankees had a pair of early two-run leads and flushed.
Going into Thursday’s MLB action, the Yankees were 3 ½ games behind the Tigers and Mariners for the second wild card.
The Orioles, who like the Yankees were idle Thursday, start play Friday night with a 69-50 record. That means they have 43 games remaining. At 61-58, the Yankees have the same amount of games.
If the Orioles go 22-21 the rest of the way, they reach 91 victories. In order for the Yankees to tie the O’s, they would need to go 30-13.
Four-and-a-half months into a season that has been sabotaged by subpar performances by big names and serious injuries to bigger names can anybody expect the Yankees to play .698 ball when the most they have been over .500 all season is seven games?
“If you win games, you don’t have to worry. We play these guys [eight times]. We are playing the people in front of us,’’ Derek Jeter said of the Orioles, who are 8-3 against the Yankees this season.
Always optimistic, Jeter has a point, but …
“We are not making it easy on ourselves. We have to find ways to score,’’ said Jeter, who has three hits in his last 24 at-bats (.125). “If we don’t score runs we have to find other ways.’’
Scoring has been a season-long problem, and there are very few signs the Yankees are about to break out. Carlos Beltran has followed his hottest streak of the season with a 1-for-15 (.067) skid. Mark Teixeira is on a 3-for-23 (.130) slide with two singles, a double and one RBI. Brian McCann could return from the seven-day concussion disabled list Saturday, but questions have to linger about what he can contribute.
“It is what it is. Right now we are not playing well. A week ago we were playing well,’’ general manager Brian Cashman said Thursday. “The frustration comes from the inconsistency.’’
And it has been wildly inconsistent.
Prior to the four-game slide, the Yankees had won six of seven, averaged five runs per game, hit .269 (64-for-238) overall and .292 (19-for-65) with runners in scoring position.
In the four losses, the Yankees are averaging 1.75 runs, hitting .164 (21-for-128) overall and .040 (1-for-25) with runners in scoring position.
The math tells the Yankees they are cooked in the East. And if the pathetic hitting continues much longer, the wild-card race will end in defeat and keep the Yankees out of October for the second straight year.
Numbers can lie. In this case, however, they are the truth.