The television ad market is sending out troubling signals.
National TV advertising, including broadcast and cable, rose a measly 0.2 percent in the second quarter — the worst pace since the recession, according to analyst Michael Nathanson.
By his calculations, the broadcasters took in $3.48 billion in the quarter, down 5 percent from $3.673 billion a year ago.
Only ABC grew ad dollars in the period, while NBC, CBS and Fox all saw declines, according to Nathanson, who crunched the numbers based on the latest batch of earnings from big media companies.
Cable outlets saw a 3.7 percent uptick in ad dollars, to $5.98 billion, from $5.77 billion, according to his estimates.
The murky ad picture has Nathanson and other analysts wondering if digital outlets are starting to steal market share from traditional TV budgets.
“The concern is whether this past quarter was just an anomaly or a sign of more trouble ahead,” Nathanson wrote in a report on Friday. “There is a shift to digital platforms that, according to buyers we have talked to, is taking 3 percent to 5 percent out of TV budgets.”
S&P analyst Tuna Amobi said he also noted a slowdown in advertising: “There are signs there may have been a movement because volumes were not as strong as compared to last year. The sense is digital is taking more share.”
During their earnings call, media executives suggested autos, retail and movies were weak categories. Marketers are hoping those roar back to life in the fall when NFL and other live events pull in viewers.
“Buying TV ads is no longer as unique and special as it used to be,” said BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield. “Advertisers have way more options and they are looking to use them. If you don’t have great, must-watch live programming, you are simply not critical like you use to be. ”