No. 7 Connecticut Huskies (31-8) vs. No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (29-10)
Backcourt: Size against speed, experience against youth, twin brothers against roommates. The starting backcourt matchup is as intriguing as the game.
Kentucky’s Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron, arrived in Lexington with one-and-done hype. After an underwhelming regular season full of bad body language and poor shot selection that included “mauling” from reporters, according to Kentucky coach John Calipari, the 6-foot-6 Texas brothers have keyed the Wildcats’ stunning run. Aaron has sunk the game-winning 3-pointer in each of the last three contests, while point guard Andrew has cut back on his turnovers and has been at his best late in games.
They will be tested by UConn’s lightning-quick duo of senior point guard Shabazz Napier and junior Ryan Boatright, a pair of veteran guards each standing 6 feet tall, but with hearts the size of giants. Napier has been the best player in this tournament, averaging 21 points, five assists and 2.4 steals per game, taking — and making — all the big shots for UConn. Boatright gets overshadowed, but his on-ball defense shouldn’t be overlooked. It has been crucial to UConn’s success at the defensive end, particularly in the national semifinal win over Florida, when he turned Scott Wilbekin into a non-factor.
Edge: UConn
Frontcourt: This is where it could get ugly for UConn. Kentucky has a size and strength advantage on virtually every opponent, and the paint is a weakness of the Huskies. Julius Randle had 16 points and five rebounds in the Wildcats’ national semifinal victory over Wisconsin — and it was the rugged freshman’s worst performance of the tournament. Brooklyn product Dakari Johnson is getting better each game and James Young is a mismatch on the wing.
UConn needs a big performance out of sophomore big man Phil Nolan, and for Niels Giffey to build on his best performance of the tournament. Again, the key could be 6-foot-9 junior DeAndre Daniels, who has gone from a question mark to an exclamation point in this tournament, posting two double-doubles.
Edge: Kentucky
Coach: Kentucky’s John Calipari has the large edge in experience — Kevin Ollie is just wrapping up his fourth year as a coach, and two of those were as an assistant. But Ollie has proven he’s ready for this stage, beating Phil Martelli, Jay Wright, Fred Hoiberg, Tom Izzo and Billy Donovan to get here.
Critics like to criticize Calipari’s in-game coaching chops, that he wins because of his elite recruiting, but this run Kentucky is on disproves that point. Kentucky has trailed in the second half of all but one of its five tournament victories and Calipari has made the right calls each time to turn it around.
Ollie, too, has excelled during times of turmoil, making brilliant moves such as showing his players film of its early-season win over Florida when it was floundering and bringing them to AT&T Stadium during a Texas road trip as a source of motivation.
Edge: Even
Bench: Alex Poythress has emerged as a key cog for Kentucky and so has Marcus Camby clone Marcus Lee, a pair of rebounding, dunking dynamos that bring energy and intensity. Brooklyn product Terrence Samuel gives UConn a versatile three point-guard look Ollie has grown fond of, and another freshman, 7-foot shot-blocker Amida Brimah, is a key to the Huskies’ improved paint defense and should see extended minutes against Kentucky’s numerous big men.
Edge: Kentucky
Intangibles: Both teams are playing with house money. The two high seeds weren’t supposed to get past the first weekend, and yet each is 40 minutes from an unlikely championship. Kentucky’s youngsters have played their best on the biggest stage in the crucible of the final seconds, while UConn’s experience has translated into nerves of steel.
Edge: Even
Prediction: Defense wins championships, and based on its first five games of the tournament, UConn is the vastly superior defensive team. It swallowed up high-scoring foes Iowa State, Michigan State and Florida en route to the final and will do the same to Kentucky.
Napier and Boatright’s pressure defense will lead to a nightmarish evening for the Harrisons, and Daniels is no longer the Huskies’ X-Factor — he’s their best player and a lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft — as Napier will have his Kemba Walker moment, hoisting the gold-plated wooden championship trophy as “One Shining Moment” reverberates through AT&T Stadium.
Prediction: UConn 73, Kentucky 66