It’s every fantasy owner’s fantasy: nabbing that late-round sleeper. Sometimes it’s a pick meet with quizzical looks of, “Who?” And other times the pick is made to a chorus of groans from other owners hoping to uncover that gem.
And it’s important to know when this happens. Sleepers are guys you find late, at that prudent point in the draft when player value meets pick value. When risk is overtaken by reward. That’s when you strike. And not until then. Pounce too soon, and that “sleeper” pick may actually be a “bust.”
Always remember this axiom of fantasy sports: There are no early-round sleepers, and there are no late-round busts. Don’t take huge risks early, but don’t be afraid to roll the dice late.
Which leads to the ultimate fantasy question: How to identify sleepers and busts? This was exactly the goal of the DVQ (Draft Value Quotient) — to find those players whose value exceed their ADP (average draft position).
Sleepers
QBs: There are so many quality quarterbacks, you likely can get two good ones before having to resort to a sleeper search. But if you miss, aim for Josh McCown (ADP: 177.74, DVQ: 5.52), who should lead the Buccaneers’ charge back to respectability. Other QBs to watch, Ryan Tannehill (202.89, 5.37), Joe Flacco (197.09, 5.27) and Carson Palmer (184.22, 5.07).
RBs: You don’t want to rely on sleepers as starters at any position, but even moreso at running back. If you’re looking late, Mike Tolbert (212.28, 6.98) is a great addition as a fourth or fifth RB. Ahmad Bradshaw (206.28, 6.73) has a great opportunity to perhaps unseat, or at least outperform, Trent Richardson. Also late, you can find Roy Helu (164.48, 5.91), Devonta Freeman (171.54, 5.47) and Andre Williams (165.91, 5.15).
WRs: There are more late-round sleepers at wide receiver than any position. But remember, don’t rely on late picks to carry your team. These are guys with great upside, but there are no guarantees that potential will be realized. If you snag two, that is going out on a limb.
Brian Hartline (211.04, 7.32) can be had at the tail end of most drafts, and he has proven to be one of Tannehill’s favorite targets. Doug Baldwin (188.07, 6.71) has been the Seahawks top WR, and if Percy Harvin can’t stay healthy, should be again. The Madman expects good things from rookie Jordan Matthews (194.57, 5.43).
One of the more interesting cases is rookie Kelvin Benjamin. Because his stock a risen so high so quickly, we have adjusted his ADP to reflect only drafts within the past two weeks — which jumps his ADP from 153.46 to 124.86, though it is not uncommon for him to go in the 100-110 range. With an ADP of 124.86, his DVQ is a solid 5.24. But if as he continues to rise, his sleeper value slides.
TEs: It should comes as no surprise that our favorite sleeper tight end is Ladarius Green (155.7, 3.47), whom we expect to overtake Antonio Gates as the Chargers top TE. We prefer him in a backup role, but don’t sweat too much if we have to use him as a starter. The same could be said of Zach Ertz (152.52, 2.90)
And that’s not all. There are other quality TE picks late. The Madman expects a breakout year from Coby Fleener 196.67, 3.33). Travis Kelce (215.74, 2.98) could provide an impact for the Chiefs.
Busts
QBs: It hasn’t been a good offseason for Cam Newton (40.07, 2.17): a mass exodus of receivers, an offensive line crippled by retirements, offseason ankle surgery and now has a cracked rib.
Shockingly, one of the worst DVQ among projected starting QBs is Peyton Manning (6.35, 2.32), not because we think he won’t perform, but because he offer little value with a pick this high, compared to other quality QBs available much later. we’re not going to call him a bust, but realize no QB is worth a first-round pick in standard scoring leagues (four points per passing TD).
RBs: We worry about backs who likely will be mired in committee backfields. Among the overvalued for this reason are Maurice Jones-Drew (80.48, 2.78), Shane Vereen (66.11, 3.02) and Stevan Ridley (69.37, 3.55). Steven Jackson (63.28, 3.44) could fall into this category if he continues to battle injury.
High in the draft, Arian Foster (12.76, 4.32) scares us because of recent issues staying on the field. And we’re not ready to jump on the Bishop Sankey (61.17, 3.71) bandwagon.
WRs: The Saints love to throw the ball, but Marques Colston (79.39, 3.17) has ceded his primary status to TE Jimmy Graham. With Kenny Stills still in the mix, the addition of rookie Brandin Cooks, backfield target Pierre Thomas hanging around and the possible emergence of RB Khiry Robinson, Colston’s fortunes don’t appear to be changing.
The Redskins have a way of finding a lot of pretty free agent pieces, but when they put them together it makes for an ugly picture. If DeSean Jackson (42.17, 3.35) performs to the best of his expectations in D.C., he will be feast or famine (outstanding one week, invisible the next). At worst, he will fail to fit in, or QB Robert Griffin III will get reinjured, or there’s not enough targets to go around, or …
Torrey Smith (64.37, 3.38) finally found some fantasy consistency last season, but the addition of Steve Smith and return of TE Dennis Pitta could return him back to big-play-or-bust mode.
TEs: It’s no secret Rob Gronkowski (34.39,1.76) has not been able to stay on the field, which makes us wonder why he still is being drafted so high.
Sorry, defenses and kickers. The best of you is not so much better than the worst of you to warrant sleeper or bust designation.
Insanity insider
The Madman’s DVQ identifies sleepers and busts
The Draft Value Quotient (DVQ) is a calculation of player’s value at their average draft position, in relation to projected points and position
PPT — projected points
ADP — average draft position
Sleepers
Josh McCown, QB, Buccaneers
DVQ: 5.52, PPT: 240, ADP: 177.74
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins
DVQ: 5.37, PPT: 281, ADP: 202.89
Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers
DVQ: 6.98, PPT: 91, ADP: 212.28
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts
DVQ: 6.73, PPT: 91, ADP: 206.28
Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
DVQ: 5.91, PPT: 98, ADP: 164.48
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
DVQ: 5.47, PPT: 92, ADP: 171.54
Andre Williams, RB, Giants
DVQ: 5.15, PPT: 91, ADP: 165.91
Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
DVQ: 7.32, PPT: 97, ADP: 211.04
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
DVQ: 6.71, PPT: 100, ADP: 188.07
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Panthers
DQV: 6.70, PPT: 92, ADP: 213.83
Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles
DVQ: 5.43, PPT: 98, ADP: 194.57
Justin Hunter, WR, Titans
DVQ: 5.38, PPT: 107, ADP: 139.09
Ladarius Green, TE, Chargers
DVQ: 3.47, PPT: 107, ADP: 155.70
Coby Fleener, TE, Colts
DVQ: 3.33, PPT: 91, ADP: 196.67
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles
DVQ: 2.90, PPT: 99, ADP: 152.52
Busts
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
DVQ: 2.17, PPT: 285, ADP: 40.07
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, raiders
2.78, PPT: 96, ADP: 80.48
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
DVQ: 3.02, PPT: 108, ADP: 66.11
Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons
DVQ: 3.44, PPT: 117, ADP: 63.28
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
DVQ: 3.55, PPT: 115, ADP: 69.37
Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
DVQ: 3.71, PPT: 123, ADP: 61.17
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
DVQ: 2.86, PPT: 99, ADP: 86.02
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers
DVQ: 3.11, PPT: 97, ADP: 98.87
Marques Colston, WR, Saints
DVQ: 3.17, PPT: 108, ADP: 79.39
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
DVQ: 3.35, PPT: 138, ADP: 42.17
Wes Welker, WR, Broncos
DVQ: 2.73, PPT: 120, ADP: 47.96
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
DVQ: 3.38, PPT: 121, ADP: 64.37
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
DVQ: 3.42, PPT: 115, ADP: 74.54
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
DVQ: 1.76, PPT: 139, ADP: 34.39
Jason Witte, TE, Cowboys
DVQ: 1.73, PPT: 112, ADP: 68.48