Previously, on Fantasy Insanity: The Madman told you that despite increased passing stats, you should not target quarterbacks early in your fantasy drafts.
The DVQ (Draft Value Quotient) was formed to gauge players’ worth based on position, projected points and draft position. And its sister stat, the P1E (Pick-1 Equation) revealed player value in relation to position, without regard to where they are drafted.
Now, we bring you Fantasy Insanity’s complete breakdown of QBs, listed in order of projected points. Model is based on a 12-team draft (192 picks). Players were given value of 220 in those drafts in which they were undrafted.
Peyton Manning, Broncos (ADP: 6.9, PP: 378, DVQ: 2.88, P1E: 2.61)
Peyton may be the highest scoring QB this year, but he will not outpace his peers by the same margin he did during last season’s historic campaign. Rather than spend a first-round pick on him, or any QB, we recommend waiting until later.
Drew Brees, Saints (ADP: 18.1, PP: 376, DVQ: 3.41, P1E:2.58)
Adds WR Brandin Cooks to array of solid pass targets. Engineers pass-happy offense that offers just enough running game to force defenses to feign honesty.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (ADP: 13.2, PP: 368, DVQ: 3.02, P1E, 2.47)
Expecting larger contribution from running back Eddie Lacy. Accompanied with loss of James Jones and uncertain health of tight end Jermichael Finley, we consider Rodgers the third of the top three. NOTE: In relation to their ADP, we draft none of the top 3.
Andrew Luck, Colts (ADP: 50.6, PP: 348, DVQ: 4.53, P1E: 2.21)
Expecting Luck to make big step toward elite status this season. Addition of Hakeem Nicks and healthy Reggie Wayne will help.
Matthew Stafford, Lions (ADP: 42.2, PP: 339, DVQ: 3.87, P1E: 2.10)
Consistently posts impressive fantasy numbers, even if he doesn’t have “wow” factor on field.
Robert Griffin III, Redskins (ADP: 64.0, PP: 338, DVQ: 5.00, P1E: 2.08)
If healthy, he could be one of the steals of the drafts. Worry is, can he stay healthy? His playing style does not agree with his body type.
Nick Foles, Eagles (ADP: 65.1, PP: 321, DVQ: 4.57, P1E: 1.88)
Carved up the league once he got starting job last year. Expect him to cool down. But even then, he is stellar get this late.
Cam Newton, Panthers (ADP: 42.0, PP: 315, DVQ: 3.33, P1E: 1.81)
Lost top four WRs from last season and most exciting replacement they have found is rookie Kelvin Benjamin. Offensive line could be an even bigger problem. Despite huge dollars tied up in backfield, running game is not distraction for defense. Expecting Panthers, and Newton, to backslide.
Tom Brady, Patriots (ADP: 74.5, PP: 315, DVQ: 4.87, P1E: 1.81)
Rob Gronkowski healthy (at least for now). Can’t count on Danny Amendola for full season without injury, but perhaps more than last year. Rookie fleet has extra year of experience. Don’t expect vintage Brady, but certainly better than last season, and great draft value.
Matt Ryan, Falcons (ADP: 88.7, PP: 312, DVQ: 5.52, P1E: 1.78)
Julio Jones expected to be healthy, Roddy White is back. Will miss Tony Gonzalez, but expect bounce back from Ryan and Falcons.
Philip Rivers, Chargers (ADP: 110.6, PP: 311, DVQ: 6.73, P1E: 1.76)
Strong 2013 season erased memories of his miserable 2012 campaign. Young WR Keenan Allen looked like real deal in his rookie season. Expecting him to make TE Ladrius Green into a star.
Tony Romo, Cowboys (ADP: 103.8, PP: 302, DVQ: 5.97, P1E: 1.66)
For all his warts, Romo is a fairly solid fantasy performer, particularly before Thanksgiving. We like him best as a backup, but you could survive with him as a starter.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers (ADP: 75.4, PP: 287, DVQ: 4.08, P1E: 1.50)
Add Stevie Johnson to WR group that includes solid Anquan Boldin and healthy playmaker Micahel Crabtree, along with top-tier TE Vernon Davis. Drawback is, we expect him to play with a lead often, in which case his pass attempts will decline.
Jay Cutler, Bears (ADP: 115.6, PP: 281, DVQ: 5.75, P1E: 1.44)
Can be erratic and has battled health issues in recent seasons, but he has the physical tools and the best 1-2 WR punch in league with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery — plus Matt Forte out of backfield and solid TE Martellus Bennett. And no scary defenses in NFC North.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks (ADP: 74.3, PP: 278, ADP: 3.78, P1E: 1.41)
Capable of big play when needed, but stout defense and strong running game puts him in game-manager mode more than other QBs drafted in this range. WR group leaves much to be desired.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (ADP: 138.0, PP: 264, DVQ: 6.11, P1E: 1.27)
Was never an elite fantasy QB, but still easily worth a backup spot, with potential to fill in for several weeks if needed. Don’t want to count on him as starter for a full season, though.
Andy Dalton, Bengals (ADP: 142.0, PP: 251, DVQ: 5.70, P1E: 1.15)
Sneaky productive. With A.J. Green, new youngster Marvin Jones, plus RB Giovani Bernard, he has weapons. Best as matchup starter or backup. Don’t count on him vs. strong defenses.
Josh McCown, Buccaneers (ADP: 166.0, PP: 240, DVQ: 6.23, P1E: 1.05)
Nice sleeper pick late in draft. Buccaneers are one of Madman’s “surprise” teams this season. Coaching change and QB change will ignite this turnaround, with McCown, WR Vincent Jackson and rookie wideout Mike Evans reaping fantasy rewards.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals (ADP: 148.8, PP: 225, DVQ: 6.24, P1E: 0.92)
Has some good mitigating factors — Larry Fitzgerald, up-and-coming Michael Floyd at WR and what should be an improved running game with Andre Ellington. But he is Carson Palmer, so our enthusiasm is tempered by his decidedly mediocre production in recent years.
Eli Manning, Giants (ADP: 161.7, PP: 222, DVQ: 5.14, P1E: 0.90)
Don’t focus too much on high INT total from last season. Tipped passes and desperation throws once they were far behind accounted for a significant chunk of his 27. Expect him to rebound in new West Coast offense.
Joe Flacco, Ravens (ADP: 193.1, PP: 220, DVQ: 6.30, P1E: 0.88)
The Eli Manning of the AFC — capable of getting hot but by and large an average fantasy option. Addition of WR Steve Smith will help, as will healthy TE Dennis Pitta.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (ADP: 204.5, PP: 218, DVQ: 6.66, P1E: 0.87)
Not a lot to like here, with O-line concerns, Mike Wallace as best WR option and newly acquired RB Knowshon Moreno already nursing an injury. But Tannehill has been plucky in his short career, and he does have underrated TE in Charles Clay.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (ADP: 206.4, PP: 211, DVQ: 6.31, P1E: 0.81)
“Jeopardy!” answer: Game manager. “Jeopardy!” question: What is Alex Smith? Coach Andy Reid’s West Coast system helps him boosts numbers to acceptable fantasy backup levels.
Sam Bradford, Rams (ADP: 211.4, PP: 192, DVQ: 5.39, P1E: 0.67)
Only fantasy QB duller than Bradford might be Alex Smith — both careers are the definition of average. But Bradford was performing better than expected before injury last season, and he has some playmakers around him — namely WR Tavon Austin and RB Zac Stacy. But he also plays in a brutal division.
E.J. Manuel, Bills (ADP: 210.8, PP: 185, DVQ: 4.98, P1E: 0.62)
Not impressed with Manuel’s performance in one injury-riddled season. But he has some weapons — rookie WR Sammy Watkins could be great, we like Robert Woods as secondary option, and C.J. Spiller can be a menace out of the backfield. But skill limitations make Manuel nothing more than backup option in deep leagues.
Matt Schaub, Raiders (ADP: 220, PP: 183, DVQ: 5.15, P1E: 0.61)
Doesn’t have much to throw to at WR. Not much in way of TE. Too many aging RBs. And Schaub has developed a propensity for crushing INTs. There are worse fantasy backups, but not many.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Texans (ADP: 220, PP: 177, DVQ: 4.82, P1E: 0.57)
Often overlooked, what we’ve seen out of Fitzpatrick is a capable QB who played on some undermanned Bills teams. With a Texans roster much better than last year’s 2-14 mark, Fitz could be a backup option if you land a top-tier QB early in the draft.
Jake Locker, Titans (ADP: 213.1, PP: 171, DVQ: 4.32, P1E: 0.53)
We’re in the camp of those who believe Locker still could be a productive NFL QB — granted, that is a lonely camp. Weapons aren’t great, though. Only taking him out of desperation late in deep leagues.
Geno Smith, Jets (ADP: 220, PP: 158, DVQ: 3.84, P1E: 0.46)
Expecting a slight improvement from last season, but Jets would be better with Vick under center. Added weapons will help, but nothing we saw from Geno last season made us think he is a viable fantasy option.
Brian Hoyer, Browns (ADP: 220, PP: 153, DVQ: 3.60, P1E: 0.43)
If WR Josh Gordon’s suspension is overturned, Hoyer’s projections will rise decidedly. Fully expect him to win Browns starting job. Better running game this season with Ben Tate and Terrance West, plus Jordan Cameron at TE. Hoyer could elevate to solid backup option, rather than deep-league Hail Mary.
Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings (ADP: 209.6, PP: 127, DVQ: 2.33, P1E: 0.29)
If we’re drafting a rookie QB (hint: we’re not), it would be Bridgewater. Top-tier running attack behind Adrian Peterson, pass options in WR Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson. TE Kyle Rudolph is adequate. Bridgewater good for keeper or deep leagues.
Chad Henne, Jaguars (ADP: 220, PP: 123, DVQ: 2.33, P1E: 0.28)
Expecting Henne to win Jacksonville job, which is like being the best garbage collector. Good luck, Chad.
Johnny Manziel, Browns (ADP: 153.7, PP: 107, DVQ: 1.13, P1E: 0.21)
We’re looking at Johnny Football in keeper/dynasty leagues only. Fully expect Hoyer to win job to start season — yes, even after Manziel took some first-team reps. If Hoyer gets hurt, or Browns fall out of playoff race, then we’ll look for Manziel on waivers.
Michael Vick, Jets (ADP: 213.7, PP: 103, DVQ: 1.57, P1E: 0.19)
If he somehow wins the starting job, look out — even with limited, albeit improved, weaponry on Jets offense. But if that happens, you still have injury worry. Alas, Geno Smith likely to win QB “competition.”
Matt Cassel, Vikings (ADP: 220, PP: 81, DVQ: 1.01, P1E: 0.12)
Latest reports have Bridgewater playing well in camp. This is a job the rookie could win. If Cassel does get nod, his projection will go up, but not enough to make him worthy of a pick in a 12-team league.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars (ADP: 216.3, PP: 75, DVQ: 0.85, P1E: 0.10)
Rookie QB in Jacksonville. We’ve seen this before, and we’re not much higher on Bortles than we were on Blaine Gabbert, which is to say not very high at all. Plus, Jags lost best offensive weapon in RB Maurice Jones-Drew.