When Paul George went down with a gruesome right leg injury Friday night in a Team USA scrimmage, it had far bigger implications than simply leaving the U.S. National Team without its best defender and a starting forward for the FIBA World Cup later this month.
George’s injury left the Indiana Pacers — who reached the Eastern Conference Finals each of the past two seasons and pushed LeBron James’ Heat teams further than any team besides the Spurs over the past three — reeling after seemingly being in position to continue to fight for a top spot in the conference this season. Now, suddenly, the Pacers are faced with a choice: fight or flight?
It’s hard to underestimate the impact that losing George will have on the Pacers. Over the past two years, the 6-foot-9 small forward has grown into one of the 10 best players in the league, a true two-way force who is the top offensive option for the Pacers and arguably the league’s best wing defender.
That’s a hell of a player to lose in August – and especially after losing mercurial swingman Lance Stephenson to Charlotte in free agency earlier this summer. The Pacers have lost their two best shot creators, as well a pair of strong defenders on the wings, in a matter of weeks.
Even without Stephenson, the Pacers had reason to believe – given the core’s time together, George’s room for growth and a potential return to form for Roy Hibbert after an up-and-down season – they could remain contenders in a reloaded Eastern Conference.
Now it’s fair to wonder whether the Pacers are even going to be able to make the playoffs. Indiana’s front office of Larry Bird, Donnie Walsh and Kevin Pritchard had done a good job, under the circumstances, of replacing Stephenson this offseason, bringing in C.J. Miles and Rodney Stuckey to play at shooting guard. Even after that, the Pacers needed George to take another leap forward as a scorer and playmaker. Indiana likely will rely on former Knick Chris Copeland – a good shooter who doesn’t bring much else to the table – and Solomon Hill, who played all of 28 games as a rookie, to replace George at small forward.
Given the renewed depth in the Eastern Conference – after it was hard to find eight playoff teams last season, there are 11 teams legitimately in line for a playoff spot this season – that could easily be the difference between the Pacers gearing up for another deep playoff run or attending the lottery for the first time since drafting George and Stephenson in 2010. The seven other East playoff teams expect to be at least where they were last season, if not better, and three teams that missed the postseason a year ago – the Knicks, Pistons, and … oh yeah, the Cavaliers – are likely to improve to varying degrees.
The Pacers could use the disabled player exception – allowing them to sign a player for a little more than $5 million on a one-year deal – to ink someone like Shawn Marion to play on the wing. But such a move would push the Pacers over the luxury tax, and would do nothing to replace George’s creative ability.
The more sensible option would seem to be to blow up the team, get a high draft pick in 2015 and reset their roster with plenty of cap room next summer once George is able to get back on the court again — hopefully at the same elite level.
If Bird and Co. choose to go in this direction, the obvious move would be to trade Hibbert, who is owed just shy of $15 million this season and has a player option for 2015-16 of a little more than $15.5 million. While he can be a frustrating player to watch offensively, where he often plays smaller than 7-foot-2, Hibbert is a game-changer defensively, a one-man rim protector.
There would be several teams lined up to secure his services. Perhaps the Trail Blazers – who originally signed Hibbert to an offer sheet two summers ago – would be willing to move C.J. McCollum, Meyers Leonard, Robin Lopez’s expiring contract and a first round pick for Hibbert, which might push even higher in the loaded Western Conference?
Maybe the Celtics, who have about a million draft picks in the coming years (actually eight or nine between now and 2018) would be willing to package a couple of those picks, along with the expiring contract of Brandon Bass and the non-guaranteed deal of Keith Bogans, to get Hibbert? Maybe even the Hornets, after signing Stephenson, would entertain going after Hibbert to play alongside Al Jefferson under Steve Clifford, already established as one of the league’s elite defensive coaches after just one year on the job?
At one point, the Pacers may have considered moving Hibbert to shake up a roster they thought was still in position to compete for an NBA title. Now, after one unfortunate misstep, such a move might be necessary to keep Indiana in the mix once George returns to the floor. Such is the fragile life of a contender in the NBA.