Billy Beane might not just be the best general manager in baseball. He might be worth more than the greatest baseball player of all-time.
According to an in-depth statistical analysis done by fivethirtyeight.com, Beane’s ability to consistently keep the low-spending Oakland A’s in contention has made him more valuable than any player in history, including Babe Ruth, who has the most career WAR (wins above replacement) with 163.
Using a similar formula (wins above expectation) based on payroll, Beane’s 15 seasons as general manager (1998-2013) give him 180.2 wins above expectation, according to the study, while the 15 greatest individual seasons ever from position players combine for a 180.1 WAR. Beane’s average of 12 wins per year is higher than Barry Bonds’ 73-homer season in 2001 (11.9 WAR).
Beane, who has famously constructed the A’s with inventive statistical techniques to find the most underappreciated players, has led Oakland to seven playoff appearances and the best record in baseball this season, despite working for a small-market club unable to compete with the payrolls of competitors such as the Yankees and Red Sox.
At the end of the movie “Moneyball,” Beane is shown turning down an offer from Boston to become its general manager after the 2002 season, having been offered a five-year, $12.5 million deal that would have made him the highest paid general manager in history.
That offer, according to the article, was extraordinarily low.
Since 2000, the A’s have won 180 more games than expected, based on their payroll, meaning the team has exceeded expectations by $1.38 billion. Given Boston’s deep pockets, the article states the Red Sox (having exceeded expectations by $346.5 million) would have gotten tremendous value from Beane if he were paid $25 million per season, which would be higher than every player in baseball, except Zack Greinke.
The Royals rank last, underperforming by $789.5 million in value, while the Mets have underperformed by $564.3 million. The Yankees have exceeded expectations by $210.8 million.