Goldman Sachs is long Brazil—to win the World Cup.
The Wall Street investment bank, run by Lloyd Blankfein, is predicting Brazil will beat Argentina 3-1 in the final round of the four-year soccer tournament this year.
The bank made the call in a 67-page analytical report headed by Dominic Wilson, Goldman’s chief markets economist, and Jan Hatzius, the bank’s top economist.
The number crunchers analyzed stats from 54 years of international matches, according to the report, which also shows that the winning country gets a brief bump in its stock market in the weeks after tournament.
The World Cup starts June 12 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The US team is given low odds because it’s grouped with powerhouses Germany, Portugal and Ghana, the team that beat them four years ago.
Lionel Messi, the captain of Argentina’s team, was the No. 1 “dream team” pick for Goldman clients, according to the report. He’s also the odds-on favorite to score the most goals.
“We could only wish for this level of dedication from our team around the world to their regular tasks,” Wilson and Hatzius write in the report.