In the second of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season, Fantasy Insanity discusses the gameplan for picking quarterbacks. Next week: running backs.
Let’s get this out of the way first: Peyton Manning will not duplicate last season’s success.
This is not meant as a diss on Manning. It does not mean he isn’t the safest bet to lead all quarterbacks in fantasy points this year. It just means he won’t have the single greatest passing season in the history of the game, again.
Those expecting a record-setting repeat are the same people who buy a lottery ticket the day after winning the Mega Million. Historic seasons don’t happen often, that’s why they’re historic. Just look at Adrian Peterson’s follow-up to his monster 2012 campaign. His production took a significant dip, though he remained a fantasy force.
And that’s what we expect from Manning this season — for him to come back to the pack, to be among the leaders rather than blowing past the field.
What does this mean to your draft strategy? It means you don’t need to target a specific gunslinger. There’s no need to rush to get Manning if Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers still are available. Or better yet, you wait even longer.
Luck of the draw
Our favorite time to take a starting QB is somewhere between Rounds 4-6 — after at least two RBs and one WR. And we have a list of primary targets with whom we would feel fairly comfortable — Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Robert Griffin III.
Of this bunch, Luck is our favorite. Using Insanity’s Draft Value Quotient, consider: Luck’s DVQ is 3.77 at pick 47.0, where he goes on average.
Manning has a DVQ of 2.91 at his average draft spot, which is 7.6. For perspective, Manning’s DVQ if he were picked 47.0 would be 5.11. So yes, Manning is the better fantasy QB, but not so much that you should pick him as early as he normally is picked.
If Luck drops into the fifth round, which he has in about 33 percent of our drafts, the Madman jumps up and down, does a cheer and shakes his pom-poms. Luck has the greatest upside of this bunch, with a chance to vault into the top tier this season.
If you miss on Luck, we’re not hitting the showers. Stafford is next in line, followed by Newton, Foles, Ryan, Rivers then RG3.
Stafford has been consistent, though we likely have seen his ceiling. Newton has few, if any, legitimate receiving targets, but can score with his legs as easily as his arm. It looks as if Rivers’ 2012 nose dive may be been an anomaly, and he can be had much later than the rest — in the early 100s (ninth round).
RG3 is the big mystery. Like Vick, we worry about RG3’s playing style in conjunction with his build — too slight to take a parade of hits. At best, if healthy, he could fare better than Luck and rank among the elite. At worst, he suffers through another injury-riddled season and you end up leaning on your backup. Taking him in this area, we’re hedging our bets.
Check down
If you bypass the top tier and miss on the second, make sure you hit your safety outlet by taking either Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo or Colin Kaepernick in the next group.
We’re not shy about Brady, despite declining numbers (he does have Rob Gronkowski back this season). Kaepernick has the best upside, and Wilson has been consistent in his first two seasons — and has the highest DVQ.
If all the above are gone and you still don’t have a QB, your “emergency: break glass” option is Romo. You may be able to survive with him as a starter, but that is a dangerous situation — coming off back surgery, a history of erratic production and an annual late-season swoon just around fantasy playoff time.
The last of these options likely will be off the board in Round 10, which is late enough to justify drafting one of them as your backup pick.
If all else fails …
If you’re searching for a starter in the late rounds, you have made some severe mistakes along the way. But there are a few options who make for solid backups — Jay Cutler, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger being the best of the bunch. But in deep leagues, we can live with Ryan Tannehill, Carson Palmer or Alex Smith as our reserve. If we are forced to gamble on a rookie, we’ll take Teddy Bridgewater over Johnny Manziel.