Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Mets’ finish will determine Collins’ fate

In many ways, Terry Collins has been on a four-year job interview. He has constantly been auditioning, first, that he was indeed a changed man from his incendiary past and, most important, that he is more than a transitory leader — one who gets the Mets through bad contracts and the waiting process needed to grow Sandy Alderson’s farm system.

Better days feel a bit closer for the Mets, but nothing has changed for Collins. He is still being judged, still being sized up by his bosses to determine if he is the right man — after getting the Mets from Point A to today — to get them to serial contention. Or was he just a placeholder for the managerial version of a closer yet to be named?

Yes, if his 2015 status had to be announced today, then there would be a slight lean — emphasis on slight — to bring him back. But the decision is not being made today and the decision-makers and the decision remain in flux. Even Collins says the next 6 ¹/₂ weeks will resolve whether he is back in the Mets dugout next year.

And, in reality, the trend lines are working against him. You might not like the offensive philosophies espoused by Mets upper management. But those in charge believe in it absolutely — that patience and power are the no-doubt formula to score runs consistently, that controlling the strike zone and swinging only at what you can hit with force is not up for debate within the organization.

The Mets ranked 26th out of 30 teams in both homers and walks in the second half — and are dead last in walks in August. And that was before the team with the majors’ fewest runs since the All-Star break managed two walks, no homers and lost 4-1 to the Nationals. Washington has actually outhomered the Mets at Citi Field in the second half, 7-6, despite playing just three games there.

“I believe in the approach of plate discipline,” Collins said. “And it has been proven that when we do what we are talking about, we have success.”

Collins’ defenders will point out that probably no manager or coaching staff could win the battle to make players such as Daniel Murphy or Juan Lagares or Wilmer Flores more patient or to be able to slow down the game enough under stress to make wise decisions, including at the plate. But Alderson and his deputies believe that incremental improvement is always possible.

It is instrumental to remember that when Alderson was in charge of MLB umpires, he rarely fumed on bad calls, only when umps did not follow the process of getting into position and using the proper rules, etc.

He is a man of process and data. He wants his manager to be information driven, and he and his lieutenants honor the same path. They will gather all the information — notably these last six-plus weeks — to render a 2015 judgment on Collins, whose contract runs through next year. The lean, again, is only slightly in his favor to be retained. Therefore, these trend lines better reverse or someone is going to be held accountable, and Collins is the most likely target.

“If we finish good, I don’t think I have much to worry about. If we don’t,” Collins said, paused a moment, and then finished, “who knows?”