The Yankees are going to keep trying to make trades. It is just who they are. Part of the genetic code of the Steinbrenners. They are never going to give up on a season.
They didn’t last year in taking a big financial hit to get Vernon Wells at the end of spring and Alfonso Soriano in late July. And we should remember that was to augment a roster on which the primary catcher, third baseman and shortstop were Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez.
So they are not going to give up now. Not after ignoring three years of trying to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold and, thus, flushing away what was expected to be about $100 million in savings over three years. Not after investing about a half-a-billion dollars this offseason to make the acrid taste of 2013 go away. Not when missing the playoffs for a second straight year would feel worse around these parts than the Royals not having played a meaningful October game since 1985.
The Yanks will go for it. That is what they do. But keep this in mind: As of Tuesday morning, the playoff odds projections at ESPN (17.1 percent), Fangraphs (25.2) and Baseball Prospectus (29.5) all had the Yanks with less than a three of 10 chance of making the playoffs based on millions of simulations of the season. Of course, the odds fluctuate constantly and are bucked regularly.
But it gives some unbiased look into what the Yanks’ chances are of even reaching the one-and-done wild-card game (though each assessment gives them an easier route to win the weakened AL East than be a wild card).
When asked about this, Brian Cashman says he has looked at those odds in the past, but not this year. He says it is too early, cites history about teams that defied the odds. For now, though, he says, “They are not part of our internal dialogue.”
Put into English it means: The Yanks are going for it. They are too close to first place and too invested in the season to turn back now. As Cashman said, “Last year was Exhibit A: We could have shut it down and ownership said, ‘No.’ We had a devastation of injuries and ownership said to go for it all the way through. We won 85 games and made it farther than we should. The DNA is what it is here, which is always to find a way to make the playoffs and then try to be the last team standing. That is the way it is always going to be here.”
Indeed.
And I do not want to douse the spirit of going for it. Not when so many organizations are taking pride in their status in the Baseball America prospect rankings over trying to win the very tangible championship trophy that will be bestowed after the season.
Still, the Yanks have to be wise about this. If they can improve incrementally by giving up someone who had no spot in their future plans such as Vidal Nuno for Brandon McCarthy, then do it. If they could essentially use their financial might to take on an onerous contract for a low cost in prospects, then do that, too. Maybe, for example, Philadelphia will eventually wise up, understand a total makeover is necessary and recognize no team is going to take on Cliff Lee’s onerous contract and give up high-end prospects.
Even with their farm system in a better state than a year ago, the Yanks should have a rule — giving up the best parts should only be done for players they imagine having impact beyond this season.
Because when you really examine these 2014 Yankees, do you see a playoff team? A championship contender? Or do you see a club that could further unravel even with an addition?
Will David Robertson, Dellin Betances and Adam Warren hold up with such a heavy workload? How about Masahiro Tanaka in his first time starting every five days? How many stints on the disabled list will Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira need, and will Michael Pineda and/or CC Sabathia ever come off the DL? Do you think the second 100 innings on the arm of 39-year-old Hiroki Kuroda will go better or worse than the first 100? Can you expect the remarkable durability of Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts to continue considering age/injury history? Can a team asking McCarthy, David Phelps and Shane Greene to start win enough to get to October — and, should they get there, do you see enough of a rotation to survive best-of-five or best-of-seven series?
Again, good for the Yanks to go for it and try to solve problems. But there are so many problems — with a likelihood of more — they have to think seriously about how much they want to expend from their prospect pool to follow their admirable historic penchant to always go for it.
World of hurt for Red Sox, Cardinals
If the season had ended after play Monday, neither the Red Sox nor the Cardinals — last year’s World Series participants — would have made the playoffs.
There are many reasons for this, but one obvious one: Boston led the majors in runs last year by 57 and the Cardinals led the NL by 77. The best-to-worst transformation is stunning. The Red Sox were last in the AL in scoring, 17 runs fewer than any club. The Cardinals were next-to-last in the NL, ahead of only the historically dreadful Padres.
Consider this: The Cardinals were 48-42 through Monday and that was with their pitching staff amassing an MLB-high 17 shutouts. They had held opponents to two or fewer runs 38 times and were 33-5. Which meant when St. Louis permits more than two runs it was 15-37.
In 2013, the Cardinals hit a record .330 with runners in scoring position. They were .246 this year.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have faltered in so many places, but to pick one: Last year, their 10 most-used players all slugged at least .415. This year just three of their top 10 are as youngsters Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. have not fired while veterans such as Dustin Pedroia and Jonny Gomes have faltered.
Yankees beat up on wounded arms
The three shortest outings by an opposing starter against the Yankees this year have occurred on this road trip with Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson and Ricky Nolasco, and Cleveland’s Justin Masterson each lasting just two innings.
But before we pronounce this Yankee lineup alive and well finally, consider the Yanks punished Nolasco on Sunday, Masterson on Monday and both were placed on the DL on Tuesday — Nolasco with a sore elbow and Masterson with inflammation in his right knee.
Among 93 qualifiers for the ERA title, Nolasco was 93rd with a 5.90 ERA and Masterson 92nd at 5.51. The Yanks totaled 11 runs on 13 hits in four combined innings vs. Nolasco and Masterson, then managed three runs on 13 hits in 14 innings against the relievers who followed the failed starters.
In other words, more evidence is necessary to believe this Yankee lineup has been revived.