NFL

DVQ: A new formula to compute fantasy football value

Imagine a deep, dramatic movie-trailer voice:

In a world, where fantasy football owners could not truly compare the value of individual players at different positions prior to their fantasy drafts, where quarterbacks routinely were picked too early, and a tiered ranking approach was marred by random subjectivity, there came a man who sought to solve this problem using nothing more than dozens of lives draft, countless hours of research, an Excel spreadsheet and a calculator.

But not just any man. This was a Madman. And his fantasy insanity would change the draft landscape forever … or at least offer a passing fascination.

Welcome to DVQ.

The draft revolution has begun.


OK, I get it. I’m going a little overboard here, but make no mistake: We have developed an exciting formula we believe offers the best glimpse at a player’s draft value.

Here was the mission: Provide a numerical value to players based on their projected points scored in relation to their draft position. The higher a player scores, the more valuable. But if it were that simple, you would just pick the player with the highest projected point total with every pick, and end up with a roster full of quarterbacks.

No, there had to be a way to show a relationship between projected points and draft position, to demonstrate with a numerical value why a player projected to score slightly less but taken a few rounds later was a better pick. There had to be a way to gauge the need to fill two starting running back spots, two wide receiver spots, a QB position, a tight end, a flex and a defense/special teams (sorry kickers, you’re too interchangeable to warrant intense scrutiny).

It took weeks, but we’ve landed on an equation that does just that: the Draft Value Quotient, or DVQ. This formula takes into consideration scoring by position; average draft position by, er, position; overall scoring; and overall draft placement — while factoring in roster requirements. The fantasy format we choose was a 12-team league using a 50/50 scoring model (leagues in which TDs and yards contribute close to the same when tabulating weekly totals). We are basing our model on a traditional fantasy roster using a tight-end-eligible flex position.

Bear in mind: Scoring rules and roster requirements differ from league to league, so we have chosen the format we felt would help the most readers. We did not include PPR (points per reception) in this version.

(PPR is an outdated concept originally introduced to counteract inflated importance of RBs, which is no longer needed. Even at PPR’s point of greatest relevance , it still distorted fantasy values in unnatural ways, making, for example, Darren Sproles more valuable than Adrian Peterson.)


Once we established our working formula, we found it had more uses than originally envisioned. The primary goal was to find a value for each player at his average draft position. What we ended up with is something that easily can be adjusted to apply to any player at any draft position while absorbing changes to projected points.

For example, Peyton Manning, whom we project to score 378 points this season, has average position of 7.6, which yields a DVQ of 2.91. If he is picked No.1 overall, the DVQ drops to 2.61. If he slips, to say, pick No. 40 (not going to happen, but if it did …) his value jumps to 4.68, which puts him ahead of those players who routinely are picked in the 40 range.

Colts QB Andrew LuckAP

What those numbers tell us is that Manning is overvalued in the draft. Or better yet, not just Manning, but QBs in general early in the draft. Peyton has the highest DVQ of any QB, but ranks just 24th overall.

The way we have decided to express this is with what we call the Pick-1 Equation, or P1E. This delivers the DVQ of every player if he were picked No. 1 overall. Obviously, only a select few will get the honor being picked first in fantasy drafts, but what this does is provide a baseline for comparison. The P1E provides a points vs. position value without relation to draft position. It is a mathematically reliable way of ranking players — provided you are comfortable with the projected points, which are inherently subjective.

Peyton’s P1E of 2.61 doesn’t compare favorably to LeSean McCoy, who takes the top spot with 5.66 despite a projected point total of 260, well below Manning’s 378. Jamaal Charles boasts a 5.45, and Adrian Peterson rounds out the top three at 5.24. Calvin Johnson’s 4.78 comes in as the first non-running back on the board at No. 5.

Peyton is penalized in our equation because the difference in production in early-round QBs and later-round QBs is not a large as the difference seen at RB or WR. The points sacrificed by bypassing Peyton is not as significant as that for RBs and WRs. This is true in part because in many leagues, including our format, more RBs and WRs are needed to fill out a starting roster.


The DVQ is a sliding scale. Take our favorite example: Peyton vs. Andrew Luck.

Manning’s DVQ at pick No. 7 (his average draft spot is 7.6, and rising) is 2.89. Luck, with a projected point total of 325 and a draft spot of 45 (his average draft position is 44.8) has a DVQ of 3.69. So Luck provides better value at his normal draft position. By way of comparison, Manning’s DVQ at pick No. 45 is 4.99, much higher than Luck’s. So we’re not saying Luck is a better fantasy quarterback, just that he offers better value at his draft position.

(Just for fun: If Peyton were picked with the last pick, No. 192, his DVQ is 18.47, compared to, say, Markus Wheaton, who has a DVQ of 0.56, based on a projected point total of 82.)

In other words, you are better off taking Luck in the fourth round than Manning in the first. You can use those higher picks on players at other positions who provide more value, because the alternatives at those positions decline more steeply as the draft progresses than do the quarterback alternatives.


Despite the amount of confidence the Madman wields while trumpeting our great mathematical achievement, it must be noted that this formula never will be truly “perfect.” Average draft positions change with every draft, and point projections are adjusted in the event of injuries, depth chart announcements, preseason performance and player movement. The good news is, it takes just a few keystrokes to remedy any perceived flaws, to stay in the good graces of the Number Gods, to ensure DVQ can be a tool with which the Madman can help you conquer your fantasy realm.
The draft revolution has begun.