OK, the interminable two-week wait is almost over, the reams of stats have been studied, the predictions of everyone and everything from supermodels to manatees have been heard, and now it’s finally time to lay it on the line:
The Broncos will win their third Super Bowl championship, and Peyton Manning will capture his second ring, earning it in brother Eli’s house the way Eli won it in his two years ago. They will cover as two-point favorites, and in a competitive, exciting game that goes Over the modest total of 47.
The biggest reason for those two selections: Peyton Manning himself.
We’ll get back to him in a bit, but first lets look at some other areas where the Seahawks have been given the edge by some.
First is The Beast, Marshawn Lynch. Definitely the strong, silent type, he had 1,257 yards rushing at 4.2 yards per carry and 12 rushing touchdowns, tying him for first in the NFL. Those numbers are nearly shadowed, though, by Denver’s lead runner Knowshon Moreno. He was even a bit better at 4.3 yards per carry, so his 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns are a result of 60 fewer carries.
OK, well how about sacks? The Seahawks have a shot to hit Manning, disrupt his rhythm. Well, they were good, registering 44 sacks in the regular season and three more in two playoff games. But the Broncos can play that game, too. They have the same 47 sacks total, after stepping it up in the playoffs with six sacks in two games.
Our Steve Serby had a great time yukking it up the other day with Bill Parcells, Ottis Anderson and others from the 1990 Giants team that played keep-away from Jim Kelly for 38 minutes to beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV. This is the first title matchup between the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense since then, and these estimable old Giants figure this Seahawks team is built to do the same thing, keep it away from Manning with ball control, then finish him off with a killer defense.
But a closer look at the stats reveals a possible flaw in this argument. In the 1990 regular season, the Giants ranked fifth in the NFL at around 32 minutes of possession, and the Bills ranked 23rd at about 28 minutes per game in their hurry-up, K-Gun offense.
You might expect similar rankings here, given the Broncos’ mostly no-huddle attack. But instead the script is flipped. The Broncos ranked 10th at 30.35 minutes per game in the regular season, while the Seahawks were 17th at 29.57. In the playoffs, Denver has been off the charts in this area, keeping the ball for more than 35 minutes against both the Chargers and Patriots. So, as the announcer used to say in the old Star-Kist commercials, “Sorry Charlie,” this theory doesn’t hold water.
A couple of other stats are too close to call: Both teams are 4-1 against common opponents. And the kickers are both outstanding. Seattle’s Stephen Hauschka is 39 of 41 on field goals (including postseason) with a long of 53 yards. Denver’s Matt Prater was 30 of 32 and set the NFL record with a 64-yarder.
All of this brings us to the real showdown in Super Bowl XLVIII:
Manning’s record stats (5,477 yards and 55 TD passes) vs. Seattle’s incredible, league-leading plus-20 in turnover differential, built largely on an NFL best 28 interceptions.
Many think Manning is going to give one up, serve up a pick six to Richard Sherman or one of his cohorts in the Legion of Boom. It has happened to him in the playoffs and Super Bowl in the past and could happen again. But his 2013 numbers suggest he’ll put up 5 ¹/₂ touchdown passes for every pick he throws.
Manning is the difference because he controls the pace of the game, because he audibles to the perfect play right before the snap before the defense has time to adjust, because he knows how to use his scary array of weapons (Wes Welker, Eric Decker, DeMaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Moreno) to maximum effect. He will spread out the Legion of Boom, blunt its gang-tackling, bullying fury, and find its weaknesses.
Broncos 27, Seahawks 23
TWO WEEKS AGO: 1-1 selections, 1-1 Over/Unders