There are really only four or five teams that have a chance to win the Olympic gold medal in Sochi, and yet that won’t diminish the frenetic excitement of the games, which start Wednesday with the group stage. Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has the weight of the world on his shoulders trying to bring home the prize for host country Russia, while the Canadians will try to win the first consecutive golds since NHL players were allowed to participate in 1998.
Then, of course, there are the Americans, who lost on Sidney Crosby’s golden goal in Vancouver four years ago, as well as the Swedes, led by Rangers netminder Henrik Lundqvist, and the Finnish, with Bruins star Tuukka Rask in nets.
Format: There are 12 teams, broken into three groups: A, B, and C. After a three-game round robin within each group, the three group winners will advance to the quarterfinals, along with the team that has the fourth-best record. The other eight teams will play a single-elimination game — 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9. The winners of those four games will move on to fill out the eight-team bracket, en route to the gold medal game on Feb. 23, at 7 a.m. EST.
Here’s a look at the field:
Best chance
CANADA
Group: B
Odds: 2-1
NHL Stars: F Sidney Crosby (Penguins), F Jonathan Toews (Blackhawks), F Ryan Getzlaf (Ducks)
Locals: F Rick Nash (Rangers), F John Tavares (Islanders)
Probable starting goalie: Roberto Luongo (Canucks)
Breakdown: The obvious favorite with 100 percent NHL players, the Canadians have a comical amount of offensive talent, even if former Rocket Richard Trophy winner Steven Stamkos was unable to make it because of his broken leg. He just happened to be replaced by Lightning teammate Martin St. Louis, a former league MVP. The forwards also include some terrific two-way players, adding to a defensive corps that is big and quick when moving the puck. The one question might be Luongo in nets, as his leash won’t be too long with both Carey Price and Mike Smith capable and waiting.
Prediction: They defend the gold and Canada runs out of Molson beer before noon.
RUSSIA
Group: A
Odds: 9-4
NHL Stars: F Alex Ovechkin (Capitals), F Pavel Datsyuk (Red Wings), F Evgeni Malkin (Penguins)
Locals: F Ilya Kovalchuk (in KHL, former Devil)
Probable starting goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky (Blue Jackets)
Breakdown: With the weight of the home country on their shoulders, there are more players on this team who play in a league other than the NHL than there are on any other gold-medal contender. With 10 players in the Russian-based KHL, this will either be a promotion for the strength of that league, or an indictment. It’s a roster whose strength is going to be goal scoring — and it has to be, with a defense that likes to get up in the play rather than stay at home. It also helps reigning Vezina Trophy winner Bobrovsky will be in nets, as he has regained his form since coming back from an early-season injury.
Prediction: They disappoint immensely by not medaling and Russian President Vladimir Putin renounces Ovechkin’s citizenship.
SWEDEN
Group: C
Odds: 9-2
NHL Stars: F Henrik Zetterberg (Red Wings), F Daniel Alfredsson (Red Wings), F Daniel Sedin (Canucks)
Locals: G Henrik Lundqvist (Rangers), F Carl Hagelin (Rangers)
Probable starting goalie: Lundqvist
Breakdown: The Swedes have always played a cerebral game, and they have the depth and skill to make up for their lack of size. It was a big blow when Henrik Sedin announced he couldn’t play because of injury, as well as the retirement of all-time great defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom. Yet with a defensive corps that is great with the puck, and a group of forwards that are almost all defensively responsible, this team is relentless. Lundqvist has rediscovered his game and has the ability to steal wins against superior opponents.
Prediction: Lose to Canada in the final because of too much time spent staring in the mirror.
UNITED STATES
Group: A
Odds: 6-1
NHL Stars: F Patrick Kane (Blackhawks), D Ryan Suter (Predators), F Zach Parise (Wild)
Locals: Ryan Callahan (Rangers), Derek Stepan (Rangers), Ryan McDonagh (Rangers)
Probable starting goalie: Ryan Miller (Sabres)
Breakdown: As much as U.S. general manager David Poile tried to focus on skating ability while assembling this roster, the biggest strength still is the size and physicality. They probably have the best set of penalty-killers in the tournament, which might be a good thing if they can’t keep up with some faster teams. They have a terrific group of shutdown defensemen — along with international veteran Miller in nets — but they will need to find offense somewhere, and that could be their undoing.
Prediction: Lose in the semifinals, a few thousand people at home notice and then go back to focusing on spring training as U.S.A. wins the bronze.
Some chance
FINLAND
Group: B
Odds: 11-1
NHL stars: F Teemu Selanne (Ducks), F Olli Jokinen (Jets), F Jussi Jokinen (Penguins)
Locals: None
Probable starting goalie: Tuukka Rask (Bruins)
Breakdown: With some old leadership (Selanne) mixed with some teenage legs (Penguins defenseman Olli Maatta and Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov), the Fins have an eclectic group. They suffered two big injury losses in Wild forward Mikko Koivu and Lightning forward Valtteri Filppula. They don’t have too much talent on the back end, and will rely heavily on their goaltending to win tight games.
Prediction: Rask struggles, they don’t medal, and somewhere in the North American wilderness, Tim Thomas is smiling and eating venison killed with a knife.
CZECH REPUBLIC
Group: C
Odds: 12-1
NHL stars: F David Krejci (Bruins), F Milan Michalek (Senators), F Ales Hemsky (Oilers)
Locals: F Patrik Elias (Devils), F Jaromir Jagr (Devils), D Marek Zidlicky (Devils), Petr Nedved (Czech league, former Ranger)
Probable starting goalie: Ondrej Pavelec (Jets)
Breakdown: A lot of age at the core of this team, and that doesn’t bode well for the big ice surface. The odds of them winning games 6-5 are rare, and it’s doubtful Pavelec is going to be able to rescue a weak defensive group.
Prediction: Jagr and Nedved discuss the early 1990s, retirement plans and mullets after getting bounced early.
SWITZERLAND
Group: C
Odds: 33-1
NHL stars: D Mark Streit (Flyers), D Yannick Weber (Canucks), F Nino Niederreiter (Wild)
Locals: F Damien Brunner (Devils)
Probable starting goalie: Jonas Hiller (Ducks)
Breakdown: With not a lot of firepower up front and not a lot of depth on the back end, the Swiss are going to struggle to keep pace with the bigger, faster and more skilled teams. They have surprised in past international competitions with their physicality, but that can only take you so far in a tournament with this much talent.
Prediction: With forward Matthias Bieber on the team, the music in the locker room may not be any better than the results on the ice.
SLOVAKIA
Group: A
Odds: 40-1
NHL Stars: D Zdeno Chara (Bruins), F Michal Handzus (Blackhawks), F Marian Hossa (Blackhawks)
Locals: None
Probable starting goalie: Jaroslav Halak (Blues)
Breakdown: With Blue Jackets forward and former Ranger Marian Gaborik out with an injury — and the Islanders not allowing defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky to play following his almost-four-month absence with a concussion — the offensive talent isn’t overwhelming. There are two good young forwards to watch for from the Red Wings, Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco, which bodes well for the future.
Prediction: After losing early, the 6-foot-9 Chara reaches up from the ice and saves a birds nest falling from the rafters.
No chance
NORWAY
Group: B
Odds: 200-1
Notables: Mats Zuccarello (Rangers), Patrick Thoresen (in KHL, formerly of Oilers and Flyers), Ole-Kristian Tollefsen (in Swiss league, formerly of Avalanche)
Breakdown: The only hope is Zuccarello gets to face Chara at some point, renewing their height-based hatred for one another.
LATVIA
Group: C
Odds: 400-1
Notables: Coach Ted Nolan (Sabres, former Islanders coach), D Sandis Ozolinsh (in KHL, former Ranger), F Zemgus Girgensons (Sabres), F Kaspars Daugavins (in KHL, formerly with Senators and Bruins)
Breakdown: Nolan has done a commendable job turning around the perception of this small country’s team — yet this team needed Ozolinsh to come out of international retirement just to qualify.
AUSTRIA
Group: B
Odds: 1000-1
Notables: F Thomas Vanek (Islanders), F Michael Grabner (Islanders), F Michael Raffl (Flyers), D Thomas Pock (in Austrian league, former Ranger)
Breakdown: Vanek will find a way to score some goals, and after they lose early he’ll declare his lifelong desire to reach international free agency.
SLOVENIA
Group: A
Odds: 1,000-1
Notables: F Anze Kopitar (Kings), F Jan Mursak (in KHL, Red Wings prospect), F Tomas Razingar (Swedish league 2)
Breakdown: The captain, Razingar, cried after the team beat Belarus and Denmark in qualifying without Kopitar or Mursak, calling it the country’s greatest triumph in men’s hockey.
Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv