For much of this season, the Yankees have viewed AL East mediocrity as a blessing. No matter their struggles with play or injury, they could count on their flawed competition to keep them in the race.
But the diminished quality of the division actually could be quite the opposite of a blessing. If, for example, it conned an organization that should surrender on this season to never retreat.
This has become more relevant to the Yankees as they revealed Masahiro Tanaka has a slight tear in his elbow and will — at best — miss six weeks and — at worst — need Tommy John surgery. That means the Yanks will be without four-fifths of their projected rotation, possibly for the rest of the year. That is probably not survivable.
Yet, even when presented with the worst-case scenario, multiple executives who deal regularly with the Yanks predicted no way the Steinbrenners would quit on this season — particularly because no one is running away with the division.
Also, even if the Yankees went into sell mode, whom would they shop? Mark Teixeira has a problematic wrist, a troublesome contract ($45 million owed for 2015-16) and a full no-trade clause I believe there is zero chance he would waive. Carlos Beltran is essentially ditto — actually, amazingly, more damaged goods with a contract through 2016.
Brett Gardner was just signed for four years at $52 million, and is the rare Yankee on an extended contract earning every dollar. Maybe the Yanks could capitalize on Brian Roberts’ unexpected health and that the Reds have lost Brandon Phillips for much of the rest of the season or can move Matt Thornton to a team craving lefty relief such as the Braves or Angels.
But moving them or Ichiro Suzuki or Kelly Johnson brings small returns.
Again, I don’t think the Yanks would move huge pieces, but these are the ones they would have to consider if they have a sea change:
David Robertson
He is a free agent after this season, and I think the Yankees will put a qualifying offer (expected to be just more than $15 million) on him. If he accepts, the Yankees will know they overpaid for one year, but avoid having to do a long-term contract. If he signs elsewhere, the Yankees would get a sandwich draft pick next June between the first and second rounds. It also might chill Robertson’s market enough (as teams don’t want to give up a draft pick for a reliever) that he could re-sign for somewhat less than his value.
Or do the Yankees trade him and try to re-sign Robertson after the season — have their prospects and Robertson eventually, too? His consistency and experience in handling New York and the playoffs make him attractive. Just about any contender could use him, with the Tigers and Giants arguably the most interesting potential suitors. But would the Yankees get enough in return to move a player they like as much as Robertson?
Dellin Betances
I was shocked at how many executives mentioned the Yankees should market Betances, particularly if they are planning to keep Robertson as the long-term closer. The theory: Maybe he is Mariano Rivera II or perhaps his value never will be higher than it is now. Relievers are historically volatile. Plus, Betances is a big guy who throws hard and already has had Tommy John surgery. If the Yankees could turn him into, say, their second baseman, shortstop or third baseman of the near future, shouldn’t they at least consider that?
Hiroki Kuroda
He has a complete no-trade clause and has shown no desire to move previously. But I believe the one place he would consider is Southern California — where he still has a home — or maybe San Francisco. The Dodgers and Angels both crave rotation depth. The Yankees are not bringing Kuroda back next year. He is diminished, but his savvy/competitiveness/lingering skill would be attractive as a No. 4-ish starter for a contender. In the past, that has brought back an upper-mid-level prospect in July plus a secondary piece.
Jacoby Ellsbury/Brian McCann
I don’t think the Yanks are ready to punt on contracts they just signed. And both have complete no-trade clauses.
When it comes to Ellsbury, I think there is just one possibility — Seattle. He is from Oregon. The Mariners need a center fielder and a leadoff hitter. Can you imagine the Mariners ending up with both Robinson Cano and Ellsbury? Do the Mariners have the financial tolerance for that? And, if they do, would they rather save their bullets to go after David Price, whom they pursued aggressively in the offseason?
With Gardner, the Yankees have a center fielder to plug in and the saved money would allow them to hunt a corner bat like Nelson Cruz in the offseason. I would assume the Yankees would want a return that would include either top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker or shortstop Brad Miller. Again, I am not sure Seattle has the tolerance to relinquish that. But GMs on the hot seat often make the boldest moves — and the Mariners’ Jack Zduriencik might need the playoffs to save his job.
As for McCann, an acquiring team would have to believe in the Terry Pendleton Doctrine — that McCann just is not a good New York fit. And McCann would have to want to leave already. The Red Sox and Rangers were interested in the offseason, but are non-contenders. Would the Matt Wieters-less Orioles do this and would the Yanks trade him in the division?
St. Louis learned Yadier Molina (thumb surgery) is likely gone for the year. But I can’t imagine they would add a player like McCann with a long-term contract when Molina will be back next year. I wonder if Francisco Cervelli or John Ryan Murphy become attractive to St. Louis as short-term alternatives who back up Molina in 2015.
And consider this: For luxury tax purposes, the Yankees are at about $214 million. Remember, they wanted to get under $189 million. Only what is left on a player’s contract for that season (about 40 percent now) would be removed. Thus, even if the Yanks subtracted Ellsbury, Kuroda and Robertson before the end of this month, they would not get under the threshold.