The NFL hasn’t had a quarterback prospect this hotly debated since Tim Tebow.
Everybody, it seems, has a fervent belief about Johnny Manziel — and rarely do those beliefs meet.
The opinions are scattered so furiously that some scouts say he might be the first player selected overall, others say he could be merely the first quarterback taken, while still others wonder if the entertaining little playmaker dubbed Johnny Football will even be taken at all in Thursday night’s first round at Radio City Music Hall.
How wide is the divide on the 6-foot, 205-pound Manziel?
Former Cowboys scouting great Gil Brandt lists the Texas A&M product No. 1 overall on his NFL Network list of the top 50 prospects, while Ron Jaworski scoffs that Manziel is no better than a final-day pick.
“I wouldn’t take him in the first three rounds,” Jaworski said in February. “That’s my opinion. It’s incomplete right now, but [Manziel] hasn’t done a whole lot [to impress] me.”
That’s a pretty harsh assessment for a Heisman Trophy winner who electrified — and at times scandalized — college football the past two years by throwing for 7,820 yards and 63 touchdowns while rushing for 2,169 yards in just 26 starts, most of it against competition in the vaunted SEC.
Jaworski also said that before Manziel wowed observers at the scouting combine by running a 4.68 40-yard dash then put on a show at his pro day in College Station, Texas, in March by making seemingly every throw possible — and making it look easy in the process.
Manziel’s biggest problems, at least from a purely football standpoint, are his small size, poor mechanics, unfamiliarity with running a pro-style offense, and a reckless approach that likely is to make him a serious injury risk at the next level.
The fact that both the list of attributes and drawbacks to Manziel are so long is also what makes him arguably the most intriguing player in any draft since the Broncos made another polarizing SEC quarterback — Tebow — a surprise first-round pick in 2010.
No other quarterback in this year’s draft prompts anywhere near this much discussion, even though some scouts rank late-comer Blake Bortles of Central Florida and Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater ahead of Manziel because of their superior size and prototype measurables.
Nothing about Manziel is prototypical, but it’s impossible to overlook the outlandish numbers he regularly posted against defenses filled with players either taken in last year’s draft or given high grades this year.
Manziel’s case has been helped immensely in recent years by the NFL success of a couple of other passers hovering around six feet, Drew Brees and, especially this past season, Russell Wilson.
Manziel, though, has no time for people who want to harp on his lack of height.
“I play with a lot of heart, play with a lot of passion,” Manziel said at the combine. “I feel like I play like I’m 10-feet tall. A measurement to me is just a number.”
The trouble NFL scouts have in getting what they feel is an accurate read on Manziel is that so much of what made him successful at A&M — especially his leadership and the loyalty he inspires from teammates — can’t be measured.
That combined with the off-field character concerns (Manziel met with an alcohol counselor and is famous for his partying skills) and the fact his mechanics are a total mess give plenty of NFL executives pause.
Manziel also is entering the league after just two college seasons and doesn’t turn 22 until December.
No wonder the Texans have been willing to consider trading the No. 1 overall pick. Houston is not far from College Station, the team needs a quarterback and Manziel is a native Texan beloved across the state, so the pressure is going to be intense to take him instead of defensive star Jadeveon Clowney.
Not only that, but Manziel added to the hometown hype in February when he told the Houston Chronicle he would make the Texans regret their “worst” decision if new coach Bill O’Brien passes on him.
That’s typical of Manziel’s confidence — or overconfidence, depending on your viewpoint.
“You can ask my teammates, you can go back and ask anybody that when we needed to make a play those guys would want the ball in my hands,” Manziel said. “The guys on my team know I’ll do anything and everything for them until there’s no time left on the clock, on or off the field, whatever it may be.”
Scouts and NFL executives know it, too. The question now is which of them is willing to gamble that Manziel’s rewards will outweigh his risks.
Rating the QB prospects
Post NFL writer Bart Hubbuch ranks the quarterbacks in the May 8-10 draft:
1. Johnny Manziel*, Texas A&M, 6-0, 205
Style is unorthodox, but you can’t argue with the results.
2. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, 6-2, 215
Smart, mature passer who played in a pro-style system.
3. Blake Bortles*, Central Florida, 6-5, 230
Teams love his prototype size and arm, but the track record is slim.
4. Derek Carr, Fresno State, 6-2, 215
Some scouts remain unfairly skeptical due to brother’s NFL struggles.
5. A.J. McCarron, Alabama, 6-3, 220
Will have to shed his “game manager” reputation.
Late riser: Tom Savage, Pittsburgh — Rutgers transfer with great size (6-4, 230) suddenly has become the most popular invitee for team visits.
Dropping fast: Bridgewater — Scouts are concerned about his woeful pro day and the weak level of competition he faced in college.
Small-school wonder: Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois — Has good measurables (6-2, 225) and ran up huge numbers while starting a whopping 45 games.
*underclassman
What Jets might do: The Jets don’t have a pressing need at quarterback, but the team could look to add one on the third day of the draft. After taking Geno Smith last year in the second round and signing Michael Vick in March the team seems to have a plan in place already at quarterback for 2014.
They could look to add a developmental quarterback to push Matt Simms for the third quarterback spot with the idea that he could be an answer down the road. They have shown interest in Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd, who could be late-round selections. Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Savage visited the Jets, but both of them figure to be drafted before the Jets would be looking at quarterback.
What Giants might do: If the Giants select a quarterback with any of their seven picks, an investigation is in order. They have five of them on the roster, because Eli Manning is coming off ankle surgery and won’t be ready until training camp. The scenario the Giants would like to see unfold is Ryan Nassib in his second year take a quantum leap forward to seize control of the backup job, because coach Tom Coughlin prefers to keep just two QBs on the roster, if possible. The Giants a year ago traded up to take Nassib in the fourth round, and they do not want that curious move to turn into a wasted pick.
The signing of former Titans backup QB Rusty Smith was made because Curtis Painter underwent a procedure on his knee that will limit his work this spring. The interesting addition is Josh Freeman, the former Buccaneer and Viking who was once considered an up-and-coming player before last season’s tumble. Freeman has talent, and it will be interesting to see if he can give Nassib a run for the No. 2 job.