SAN ANTONIO – Sometimes, you get away with going against the grain. So go ahead, spit into the wind while tugging on Superman’s cape. When you’re done with all that, pick the Spurs to deny the Heat’s three-peat quest.
Yes, it is near-blasphemy, going against the two-time defending champs and the galaxy’s finest basketball specimen, LeBron James. But the Spurs have lived with a hole in their guts since their stunning Finals collapse last June. They have lived for this moment. Beyond having a Game 7 in their building, why can the Spurs do this time what they failed to do last time?
“We’re a little bit deeper off the bench,” coach Gregg Popovich said after the Spurs bounced Oklahoma City in the Western Conference finals. “Our guys, they actually grew from the loss last year. I call it fortitude.”
Some might call it nuts to think Miami can be derailed in its fourth straight trip to the Finals, something only two other franchises accomplished (Celtics, 10 straight, 1957-66; Lakers, 1982-85; Celtics, 1984-87).
“A really good friend told me the best teacher in life is experience. When you go through so many things, you’re able to learn,” James said. “Next time you face those trials and tribulations … you’re better prepared.”
Yeah, the Heat are prepared. So are the Spurs. The matchups:
Point guard
Tony Parker vs. Mario Chalmers
The biggest “if” of the series: “If” Parker is at or near 100 percent, it’s a mismatch. Parker sat the second half of Game 6 vs. Oklahoma City with a bum left ankle. The Spurs need him healthy. He’s their best player, a penetrating/distributing/scoring stud. Miami will collapse to cut him off, so if the Spurs hit from the outside, it is a Heat nightmare. Chalmers is a pest. He’ll dog Parker, try to disrupt. A good on-ball defender, he can score, shoot 3s, but didn’t major in Advanced Creating.
Edge: Spurs
Shooting guard
Danny Green vs. Dwyane Wade
All the rest Wade got in-season was for now. He’s back. He was ragged in last year’s Finals but don’t expect a repeat. A pick-and-roll master, Wade is as good as anybody going away from the screen. Looks left, goes right. He makes tough shots, plays passing lanes, gets steals. He can carry them when James rests. He’s Dwyane Wade, OK? Green was on his way to Finals MVP last season: 25-of-38 on 3s in the first five games. Then he faded to 2-of-11 in the last two. He’ll have his moments, but he won’t go off like he did last year.
Edge: Heat
Small forward
Kawhi Leonard vs. LeBron James
Leonard had some great numbers against James in last year’s Finals: 51.3 percent field-goal shooting, 14.6 points, 11.7 rebounds. Leonard is a good player, a perfect San Antonio player. He rebounds, defends, runs the floor, hits open shots, creates. But he is going against THE best. James does everything. His post-up game has evolved eons. Yes, you want to make him a jump shooter – until he knocks downs a couple 3s. He handles the ball, defends, is as strong as your average team of oxen.
Edge: Heat
Power forward
Tiago Splitter/Matt Bonner/Boris Diaw vs. Rashard Lewis/Shane Battier/Udonis Haslem
The team handing in their lineup second might have an advantage in adjusting to adjustments. Diaw is a good big-bodied, ball-handling, deep shooter off the bench and might be used that way. Bonner is a 3-point guy. Splitter, who backs up Tim Duncan, became a reserve when the Thunder employed a small lineup. Lewis started the last three Eastern Conference finals games for Miami, shot 9-of-16 on 3s and seems the likely option. Haslem is the veteran big. Battier is a defender with 3-point range. Figure if they played 3-on-3, Spurs win.
Edge: Spurs
Center
Tim Duncan vs. Chris Bosh
Bosh will lure Duncan to the 3-point line, but Duncan will dominate. The knees creak, the step is a bit slow, but Duncan remains a force. Throw away minutes concerns. He’ll play as much as he has to play. Does Bosh shoot too many 3s? Yes. But the problem for the Spurs is he makes them. James is Miami’s best inside threat, so Bosh is more of a perimeter guy, a draw-and-kick guy. The Heat will try Haslem and maybe a couple mercenaries on Duncan.
Edge: Spurs
Bench
Start with Manu Ginobili and work from there with the Spurs. In typical Spurs fashion, guys like Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli stepped up and did more than expected. There will be the residuals from the Splitter/Diaw/Bonner power forward crew. Miami has the venerable Ray Allen, who broke Spurs hearts last year, big man Chris Andersen, the Battier/Haslem/Lewis leftovers, shooter James Jones and possible wild card/major defensive pest Norris Cole.
Edge: Spurs
Coach
Gregg Popovich vs. Erik Spoelstra
You’ve won back-to-back titles, are going to the Finals for a fourth straight season. And you don’t get the edge? Any other coach and the edge goes to the Heat. But you can’t go against Popovich. Need a reason? OK, he’s older.
Edge: Spurs
Prediction
The Heat are said to be on a mission to three-peat, but no team has seemed more driven, more mission-oriented than San Antonio. Miami almost always gets the mental edge. Not here.
Spurs in seven